Week 7 Preview

The most interesting part of week 7 will be watching how both the players, the refs, and the NFL react to the helmet to helmet gate that was last week. Will refs be over anxious and give out personal foul penalties left and right? Will we see a slew of missed tackles by defenders for fear of getting said penalties? Will the NFL hand out fines and suspend players unjustly knowing that they need to send a message? All will be answered this week…. Or at least some of it will be.

The Colts can’t seem to catch a break

So not only are they down their starting middle linebacker in Gary Brackett, but today they find out their star tight end Dallas Clark is going to be out for the year. Not only that, but they’ll probably be without both Austin Collie and Joseph Addai for the next few weeks. Every time somebody goes down for the Colts another unknown person seems to step and fill their role and they don’t seem to miss a beat. I just think that this year the AFC south might be too good for that to work. The Colts are tied with both the Texans and Titans at 4-2 and I doubt they can afford this many losses in a division this competitive.

Per Usual Parity Reigns Supreme

The NFL is a league based on parity and every year we have several examples of it. This year whether you look at the Rams having as many wins this year as they had all of last year, or the Cowboys being 1-4, or nobody having more than a 1 game lead in their division it’s no different. I honestly don’t have any idea who’s going to win any division right now in the NFL. We have a solid idea of the teams who are going to be in the playoffs but nothing is written in stone. This is part of what makes football great. I wrote about it a few weeks ago, but it still remains true pretty much everybody has a chance.

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Atlanta – 4.5

Probably threw an interception

The Bengals just might be my favorite team because every time I write about them I get to write about how terrible Carson Palmer is.  There was a pretty good article on sportsline about how he gets a pass and it captures my feelings on him pretty well. All that being said Matt Ryan isn’t nearly in that territory but I don’t think he’s as good as we thought he would be coming out of his rookie year. Looking at the 4 Falcon wins two of them honestly should be losses, one being the Garret Hartley 29 yard field goal miss and the other being the Nate Clements interception fumble. Thinking about the Falcons that way makes me a lot less confident in them going into this game against the Bengals. But then all I can think of is Carson Palmer throwing interceptions and I laugh. Falcons cover the spread

Falcons 30

Bengals 17

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Baltimore -13.5

Baltimore lost in overtime against New England in a tough game last week but still seems to be among the class of the AFC if not the entire league. If you go on the road against the Jets, Pittsburgh, and New England and win 2 out of 3 you’re a pretty damn good team. Playing the Bills has been a recipe for blowouts for pretty much every good team that's faced them. The only real close game they've had was a shootout they lost against the Pats in week 3. I think the division familiarity helped them more than anything in that game. Ravens Big

Ravens 31

Bills 10

San Francisco @ Carolina

San Francisco -3

This is the classic example of a game that somebody has to win. I said I wouldn't pick the 49'ers again 2 weeks ago so of course they go out and beat my Raiders the next week. Carolina gets Matt Moore back this week, how much good that will do them is anybody's guess. The 49'ers did a good job stopping an offense that relies on the running game with an incompetent QB last week I think they can do the same this week. The Panthers defense is pretty solid and they do a good job stopping the pass. If they can pressure Alex Smith and put him back in his weeks 1 through 5 form they have a chance. If he looks like he did in Oakland last week the 49'ers get back to back wins. I think Alex Smith doesn't look as good as last week but he looks good enough.

49'ers 17

Panthers 10

Washington @ Chicago

Chicago -3

Chicago just lost to the team that never wins on the road and now they play a Washington team that manages to keep pretty much every game close but can’t seem to win most of them. Chicago has big issues protecting the QB and they’re going to be facing one of the premier pass rushers in the league in Brian Orakpo. Watching the Colts Redskins game Orakpo can be absolutely unstoppable the only problem is that he gets winded relatively quickly as drive wear on. If Chicago can get their running game going they can take Orakpo out of the game and keep Jay Cutler upright. Looking at the Redskins with the worst overall defense in the NFL I think they manage.

Bears 27

Redskins 21

Jacksonville @ Kansas City

Kansas City -2

Jacksonville was embarrassed in front of a national audience in a home game Monday night losing 30-3 to the Titans. The Jaguars seem prone to getting blown out. Every year it seems they lose at least 2 or 3 games via blow out no matter what their record is. The Chiefs don’t really have the firepower to blow out many teams but I do think they’re good enough to beat Jacksonville especially at home where the Chiefs are even better and Jaguars are notoriously poor. The Chiefs got absolutely robbed last week against the Texans and they’re looking to avenge that loss and stay ahead in what’s shaping up to be a putrid AFC West. With no David Garrard and possibly no Trent Edwards I don’t know how the Jaguars are going to go on the road and beat the Chiefs. Maurice Jones Drew is an amazing player but he’s not good enough to single handedly win a game and that’s basically what the Jags would need this week.

Chiefs 20

Jags 13

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Pittsburgh -3

Mike Wallace apparently asked for the Reggie Bush

Watching Pittsburgh last week I think the rest of the league might be in trouble. Big Ben comes off not practicing or being around his team for4 weeks and comes out in his first game with pretty much no rust. This doesn’t bode well for a Dolphins team that relies on its running game to really open up its offense. The Steelers are the best team in the NFL against the run while they’re just mediocre against the pass. I don’t think Chad Henne is good enough to carry team just on his arm however. I think we have a short lived QB duel as Big Ben puts the Dolphins down in Miami. Fantasy wise I'd count on at least one deep pass TD to Mike Wallace and his Mohawk/speed line in a Steelers win.

Steelers 24

Dolphins 17

Cleveland @ New Orleans

New Orleans -14

New Orleans looked like their old selves against the Bucs last week putting up a 31-6 victory. The Browns were competitive in all their games through week 4 but in the past two games against the Steelers and the Falcons they were beat convincingly. The Browns seem like a team that can stay close with the mediocre teams but lack the talent to compete with the truly elite teams in the NFL. They have to like what they saw out of Colt McCoy last week in the loss to Pittsburgh. He played a solid game taking what they gave him, he made a few mistakes but it was against the best defense in football so it’s forgivable. I think this game will tell us a lot about the Saints. If they can’t blow out an overmatched Browns team at home perhaps they truly are having a super bowl slump. I think the blow out of the Bucs was more an aberration than a sign of things to come. Saints still win, but they don’t win convincingly.

Saints 27

Browns 20

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay -2.5

One of the match ups I’m most interested in seeing this week is a matchup of the young upstarts of the NFC. These teams have a few things in common: Young Quarterbacks being ahead of the curve, opportunistic defenses that create pressure and turnovers, manufacturing a passing game with no elite talents, and both have 2^nd year coaches that were defensive coordinators prior to getting the job. Where the differ is in one place really; the running game, the Bucs have none to speak of while the Rams have one of the most if not the most consistent running back in football in Steven Jackson. I think that’s where this game is won, the Bucs can’t stop the run and Steven Jackson is going to run all over them on his way to passing Eric Dickerson as the Rams all time leading rusher. Rams get their first win on the road this year.

Rams 27

Bucs 20

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Tennessee -3

A matchup of two teams coming off big wins last week, the titans beat the Jaguars convincingly on Monday night while the Eagles put a whooping on the presumed NFC favorite Falcons. I have to say that the Eagles win is still the more impressive to me just because the Falcons seem like the more legitimate team of the two. However the Titans win is impressive because they kept Chris Johnson in to run up his yardage at the end of the game. Also because he has a signature touchdown dance called "the choppa city juke". The Eagles are on the road this week and while this may be a detriment to some teams the Eagles are still undefeated on the road this year.  The Titans are actually 1-2 at home with one of those losses coming to an unimpressive 2-4 Broncos team. The reason they lost that game was because they couldn’t stop the Broncos air attack and I think they’ll lose to the Eagles for the exact same reason. If Kevin Kolb ends up being the starter for the rest of the year in Philadelphia people will look back at this game as the game that sealed it.

Eagles 34

Tennessee 24

Arizona @ Seattle

Seattle -4

We have a terrible NFC West battle and a terrible AFC West battle this week. The Seahawks are at home which would normally be enough for me to pick them. You combine that with their solid win on the road last week against the Bears and them facing an undrafted rookie QB in Max Hall and a Seahawks victory seems all but certain. But then I look at the Cardinals and I think hmm how do they perform on the road. Oh wait they lost 7-41 to Atlanta and 10-41 to San Diego. Yeah Seahawks win

Seabirds 20

Arizona 6

Oakland @ Denver

Denver -6

An AFC West battle between two 2-4 teams that feel that they should be 3-3. The Raiders because of a missed Janikowski 32 yard field goal, and the Broncos because of a pass interference call on 4^th and 8 against the Jets last week. The winner of this game will be the team that manages to put their disappointment behind them and realize they’re still very much in their division race and need to win every game they can. The Raiders haven’t shown a consistent ability to stop the run or the pass and facing the high flying Broncos offense that isn’t a good thing. The Broncos are a middle of the road defense that has trouble stopping the run. However with the showing of Jason Campbell last week and the news that the Raiders may be starting Kyle Bowler I think that’s too much for them to overcome on the road.

Broncos 24

Raiders 13

New England @ San Diego

San Diego- 3

Has the AFC West replaced the NFC West as the worst division in football? Are the Chargers the Seahawks of the division; able to blow out teams at home but struggling on the road to get wins. The Patriots got a rather impressive win at home last week against a Baltimore squad I was ready to declare the best team in football. The most impressive part of that win was their much maligned defense finally showing signs of life, while their numbers might not look impressive with the game on the line in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter they forced 5 consecutive Baltimore punts. I think the streak of San Diego dominating teams at home ends this week as do their hopes of winning their division this season.

Patriots 24

Chargers 17

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Green Bay -3

Brett Favre returns to Lambeau for the first time in 2010 to a Packers team as desperate for a win as the Vikings. Early in the season it seemed like the Packers or the Bears might run away with this division but after 2 losses in the past 3 weeks for both teams the Vikings are right back in the race.  Aaron Rodgers is looking for his first win against Brett Favre; this being his 3^rd stab at it. The Vikings are looking for back to back wins for the first time all season, after a win in the panic bowl they’re in a similar situation facing a desperate Green Bay team. However looking at the injury report it looks like this Green Bay team is going to be without Clay Matthews which is a pretty big blow to a defense that relies on him a great deal to generate their pass rush.  Without that pass rush I don’t think the Packers have the ability to cover Randy Moss over the top or Percy Harvin underneath, especially not if Adrian Peterson gets going.

Vikings 30

Packers 24

NY Giants @ Dallas

Dallas -3

On Monday night it looks like a matchup of the NFC East’s best and worst teams. However that doesn’t really mean much in this division where pretty much every game comes down to the wire. The Cowboys lost the panic bowl last week and come into this game looking to salvage their wild card hopes and try to keep their division within grasp. The Giants look to bury their division rivals in week 7 putting them in a seemingly insurmountable hole halfway through the year. The Giants seem to have all the things you want in an elite team. They have offensive balance with Eli and his trio of explosive wide outs and 2 backs that can get it done in different situations. On the defensive side they have a front four that can generate pressure without the blitz allowing their defense to be aggressive in coverage. The Cowboys problems on the offensive side of the ball all seem to stem from the offensive line. They don’t generate enough push for their running attack or provide Tony Romo enough time to be error free or at least less error prone than he is now. When you match up one teams weaknesses against another teams strength I tend to side with the team with the strength, combine that with the fact that the strength weakness matchup occurs at the line of scrimmage and I think the Giants make a statement in the Jerry Jones Mausoleum.

Giants 31

Cowboys 20