week 6 preview.

Sorry no quick hits this week got a lot going on but I'll make sure to put a lot in the week 6 recap.

Seattle @ Chicago

Chicago -6

Seattle has been bad on the road and good at home, and this week they’re going against a Bears team that’s at home coming off an impressive win powered by Matt Forte and their defense as Todd Collins managed to only generate 4 interceptions and about 30 yards of passing. So to get a win like that and get your starting QB back has to make the Bears feel confident. Seattle on the other hand is coming off a loss to the Rams but during the bye week they picked up Marshawn Lynch who should do the running game a lot of good. I just don’t think it will be good enough against Chicago’s 3^rd ranked run defense.

Bears 23              

             

Seahawks 17

Miami @ Green Bay

Green Bay -3

So after a lot of speculation it seems as though Aaron Rodgers will get the start after sustaining a concussion at the end of the game against the skins. He’ll be facing a solid Miami defense who's ranked 7^th in total defense. They don’t really get a lot of pressure on the QB only ranked 18^th in sacks so far. So while they’re a solid defensive unit they just don’t pressure the QB as much as you’d want or create enough turnovers having only 4 so far this year.  The Dolphins on the offensive end seem to have a good deal of balance their main problem is the same as their defense, turnovers. Every time they got something going against New England on Monday night they would turn the ball over.  The Packers opportunistic defense combined with a home crowd spells a close victory to me.

Packers 27

Dolphins 23

Kansas City @ Houston

Houston -4.5

Lamest Emblem ever

The Kansas City Red Arrows put together a valiant effort against the Colts, if not for the inexcusable drop of Dwayne Bowe who knows how that game turns out. However he did drop the pass and the Chiefs lost so they look to get back on the winning path against a Texans team battling its own problems. Houston came out 2-0 and everyone including yours truly proclaimed that they had finally turned the corner and they follow that with two rather lopsided losses and a close win against the Raiders, not the resume of a playoff team.  I think Kansas City is more real than Houston is at this point. They can run the football and while they’re not explosive they won’t beat themselves something you can’t say about the Texans.

Chiefs 20

Texans 17

Baltimore @ New England

New England -3

Tom Brady with his first chance to remind everybody it’s been all about him all along. He can still do it with smoke, mirrors, and Wes Welker. Or maybe the 2^nd ranked passing defense in the league and the #3 defense overall reminds the Pats of what happened last year, a Ravens blow out. Looking at these teams I don’t see how these matchups have changed the Pats don’t have anybody who can keep up with Ray Rice and that hasn’t changed since last year. Without the deep play threat of Randy Moss the middle of the field won’t be so wide open for guys like Welker and Aaron Hernandez. I think Ray Rice has back to back big games and the Ravens win convingly.

Ravens 31

Pats 20

Detroit @ NY Giants

NY Giants -10

The Giants have a lot people talking about them as possibly the best team in the NFC next to the Falcons. I’m not quite drinking the kool-aid just yet. They got absolutely lambasted by the Colts in Indy and I think they have a few weaknesses that can be exposed by the right team. The Lions have some of the ingredients do just that. They have an explosive passing game with Shaun Hill, Calvin Johnson, and their two tight ends Pettigrew and Scheffler. If Jahvid Best can get back going after a few off weeks they can regain some offensive balance. However the Giants are even more explosive on the other side with Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Mannigham. I think that combined with a superior Giants pass rush means The G-men will come out on top in this match up, but I think it will be closer than people think. The Lions are a scrappy team and they been in pretty much every game they’ve lost this year.

Giants 27

Lions 20

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Eagles -1

Kevin Kolb comes in for relief of Michael Vick against the 49’ers and puts together a solid albeit not spectacular performance. However a solid performance won’t be enough to beat a Falcons team that seems to be vying for the title of the NFC’s elite. The NFC south never seems to have back to back champs and this year seems no different with the Saints struggling while the young Falcons and Bucs make headway towards a division championship. The eagles on the other hand just want to hold the fort until Michael Vick makes his way back from his rib injury which will probably be a bit longer than any Eagles fan would hope. Atlanta has strung together 4 straight wins after a tough 9-15 loss against a Pittsburgh defense we didn’t realize was so good in week 1. The Falcons are doing it through the old NFL clichés of running the ball and stopping the run. The Eagles were able to get a gutty performance from Lesean Mccoy last week with cracked ribs to the tune of 92 yards on 18 carries. That was pretty key in setting up Kevin Kolb to be as effective as he can be since he didn’t take advantage of the deep ball pretty much all game. However playing a tough Falcons run D I don’t think Lesean is as effective and the Falcons get a tough road win.

Falcons 24

Eagles 17

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -11.5

I don’t know if Colt McCoy could have a harder starting situation than this. Facing Pittsburgh on the road, in the returning game for Ben Roethlisberger. Big Spreads like this normally make me nervous but I don’t see any way that the Browns keep this game close. They’ve managed to be competitive with a number of teams of teams but they haven’t played anyone of the Steelers caliper. Combine that with Big Bens homecoming and this has all the makings of a Steeler blowout.

Steelers 31

Browns 10

San Diego @ St. Louis

San Diego -8

The 2010 Chargers ladies and Gentleman

The Chargers always start slow and everyone reminds us of that at every turn. So nobody is really in a panick about the Chargers, however if they lose this game I think a lot of people might be. The Chargers haven’t won a road game all year but eventually they’ll have to break through if they want to be a playoff team. The Rams just went on the road themselves and got blasted by the Lions by about 40 points. The Chargers have put up yards by the boatload but haven’t been able to cash those in for points due to numerous turnovers. That combined with their putrid special teams has cost them more than one game this season. The Rams already beat a solid Redskins team at home so its not impossible. I think I’ll put this game in the same category as the 49’ers game from last week. If they Chargers lose here I’m writing them off for the rest of the season.

Chargers 30

Rams 24

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans -4.5

 
All week long we’ve been asking the question: Whats wrong with N’awlins. I don’t think theres a simple answer. Their defense isn’t causing nearly as many turnovers as last year, and their running game isn’t effective without reggie bush and Pierre Thomas. Those two factors combine to drastically hinder their once explosive offense. With no short fields from the defense they don’t score as quickly. Their quick scores last year allowed them to jump out ahead and allowed their aggressive defense to be even more aggressive. With no solid running game it hinders their play action passing ability which is where they get a lot of their deep strikes from. The thing is the bucs can’t stop the run, so this is probably the week the Saints will finally look like themselves. I don’t think they’ll get a plethora of turnovers but I think they’ll find some running room against a pourous tampa bay front 4 that can rush the passer but can’t stop the run. This will allow them to hit the deep ball and it will calm everyone down about the Saints for  a week or two. However the Bucs have played too well this year outside of the Pittsburgh to get blown out here. They’ll lose the game but they’ll keep it competitive.

New Orleans 27

Tampa Bay 21

NY Jets @ Denver

Jets -3

The Jets are on a roll right now looking like one of the prohibitive favorites of the AFC. The Broncos on the other hand look like one of the plethora of mediocre to bad AFC West teams outside of the suprising Chiefs. This could be a surprise game for the Jets because with a hobbled Darrelle Revis the Jets can be challenged through the air and that’s exactly what the Broncos plan to do all game. The only question is can they protect against the variety of blitzes that Rex Ryan is going to send Kyle Ortons way. The Broncos have no semblance of a running game to slow down the pressure so they’ll have protect Kyle Orton and mix in some screens and draws along with some quick 1 step and 3 step drops. On the other side of the ball Mark Sanchez hasn’t turned the ball over all year and while he’s still not as explosive as the Jets would like him to be he’s taking care of the ball, not making mistakes and taking a few risks, he’s a bit more than a game manager at this point but not much more. The story here is still L.T. who I have to say looks just like his MVP version which I don’t think anybody say coming. I think those two things will be enough to beat the Broncos on the road

Jets 20

Broncos 17

Oakland @ San Francisco

San Francisco -6

It’s as simple as this I said I wouldn’t pick the Niner's after they lost on Monday night and I’m true to my word. Even though that means they’ll probably get their first win against my beloved Raiders. However with the way they’ve been playing I think they’ll give away the game to a team that’s almost as prone as them to giving away games.

Raiders 24

Niner’s 17

Dallas @ Minnesota

Vikings -1 1/2

This has been dubbed the Panic bowl by a large group of people and I can’t say I disagree. Whoever loses this game will seem to be in an almost insurmountable hole. Looking back at the last game for both teams I have to say I was more encouraged by the Vikings performance. They played a tough Jets team on the road and managed to come to the brink of winning the game on a second half flurry of offense. The Cowboys on the other hand repeated their standard script of self destruction. 3 Tony Romo interceptions and plethora of penalties including the most important and inexcusable an excessive celebration penalty on Marc Colombo with the game still in contention. Of course Tennessee then takes the kickoff back to the red zone. Titans score Cowboys lose. While Minnesota isn’t as good as they were last year I don’t think you can count on the Cowboys to not beat themselves especially not on the road.

Vikings 27

Cowboys 20

Indianapolis @ Washington

Indianapolis -3

Washington has managed to be in pretty much every game this year except their loss to the Rams. While a loss to the Rams seems a bit troubling the Redskins are at home against the Colts where they haven’t lost in some 40 odd years. However most of those years they didn’t have to play Peyton Manning. Despite the Fact the colts are a mere 3-2 Peyton has been his usual brilliant self putting together an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio. The Colts just won a tough game against a better than expected Chiefs team at home. This week I think they win a tough game against a better than expected Redskins team on the road.

Colts 31

Redskins 24

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Tennessee -3

The normally Colts dominated AFC South is a 4 way battle for 1^st place right now.  All 4 teams are sitting at 3-2 and the only team without a division is Colts most surprising of all. Jacksonville is looking to continue this 2 game win streak into a 3 game win streak and rack up another win against a tough division foe. They beat the Colts in overtime thanks to their running game, David Garrard not turning the ball over, and  tremendous kicking of one Josh Scoobey and they’re hoping that can be the formula for another division win. The Titans don’t have consecutive anything’s this season wins or losses. They just beat a cowboy’s team at home that nobody is still certain about. They could be a good team struggling or they could just be a struggling team. Either way Vince Young had a deceptively bad game he threw a few balls up for grabs that weren’t turned into turnovers especially his touchdown pass to Kenny Britt. However with all that being said the Titans have a been a really good road team and the Jaguars already got blown out 28-3 to a mobile quarterback. While Vince Young is no Michael Vick I think he’s good enough to get the win.

Titans 28

Jags20