Week 5 Preview

Week 5: After a mega trade followed by continued trash talk the Monday night Jets Vikings match up is even more excited than previously hoped. While Randy Moss dons the Viking horns once again, Tom Brady is back in a familiar position this bye week trying to turn a receiving core of also rans outside of Wes Welker into a super bowl caliber unit. Peyton Manning needs to get on track again against the last of the undefeated after a loss to a seemingly dreadful Jaguars team. 

A Rex Ryan Battle Royale for the AFC crown

Rex Ryan is a fan of the Cosby Sweater

Maybe Week one told us more than we thought it did. Looking at the AFC now the Ravens and the Jets look like two strong contenders for the crown. After a week one outing that nobody was proud of both teams came out of the game looking offensively inept, but maybe it was just a match up of two premiere defenses against two offenses that had yet to jell.  After 4 weeks that seems the more likely scenario as both of these teams have put together impressive 3-1 records.  Both teams are lead by defenses constructed by Rex Ryan, one of which he still coaches and the other one his imprint is still fresh .  Both have two young quarterbacks coming into their own surrounded by a plethora of weapons in Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. They truly seem to be mirror images of one another which could make a rematch in the AFC championship game all the more exciting.

The return of the Super Freak

In one of the biggest mid season deals I can remember in football the Pats sent Randy Moss back to his original NFL home in Minneapolis. The Vikings seem to be going all in on this year putting everything they have into winning the super bowl this year damn the consequences and I can respect a team willing to do that. Moss is the perfect complement to a Brett Favre that we’ve all seen is more than willing to throw up a jump ball to pretty much any receiver. Combine that with Adrian Peterson, a pretty stout Vikings defense, and perhaps a mid season return of Sidney Rice and the Vikings seemed poised for a super bowl run. Or at least you had better hope they are as a Vikings fan because we all know what happens to Randy Moss when things aren’t going well.

Sam Bradford looks like the real deal

After 4 weeks in the NFL I think its safe to say that the St. Louis Ram’s didn’t draft the next Jamaracus Russel. Sam Bradford seems to have everything you want in your franchise quarterback a rocket arm, accuracy, leadership, and the ability to step in immediately and be a difference maker. This team has shades of the Falcons and Ravens of a few years ago where rookie quarterbacks lead teams that nobody saw coming, into the playoffs. The difference being this rams team doesn’t have a good defense to support Bradford but they play in a division so terrible they don’t need one.

Denver @ Baltimore

Baltimore-7

Baltimore might be the 2nd best or best team in the AFC. There aren’t really any juggernauts to speak of in either division at this point in the year but they have compiled wins over what seem like the best team while their only loss is to a 2-2 team, the Bengals. This is a classic immovable object vs. unstoppable force match up pitting Denver’s #1 passing offense against Baltimore’s #1 passing defense.  I hate to be the one to say it but Denver’s win last week against Tennessee was pretty fluky. A questionable pass interference call to get them to the one followed by a fumbled kickoff to pretty much seal the win for them. I think their luck runs out against a good Baltimore team on the road

Ravens 27

Broncos 17

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Buffalo -1

They’re sure are a lot of ugly games in week 5. This one might be the ugliest. The Bills are 1 point favorites despite being winless and the Jaguars beating the Colts last week. I don’t really know what to make of that Jags win last week. David Garrard looked solid both passing and with his feet against what seemed like an improved Colts defense. They finally got their Mojo going after weeks of absence, but they still don’t generate any pass rush.  Buffalo on the other hand got absolutely creamed by a Jets team that seems to be shaping up to be one the best teams in the league.  Their leading rusher in that game was Ryan Fitzpatrick who also led them in rushing attempts never a good sign.  I would say maybe the friendly confines of home would help this Bills team, but they were at home last week. I think the Jags make it over .500 this week.

Jags 24

Bills 20

Chicago @ Carolina

Pick em

In another battle that nobody wants to watch a Jay Cutlerless Chicago Bears team faces off against a winless Panthers team that just put a scare into the World Champs. Up to last week the Bears had been doing a stand up job stopping the run…....then they were gashed for 189 yards at 5.8 yards a touch. I think this is the perfect opponent for Carolina to get their first win. Carolina finally got their two headed backfield on track against the Saints now they can build on that momentum against the Bears. With Todd Collins leading the Chi-town attack I doubt it’s as explosive as it’s shown in the past few weeks. The Panthers have managed to stay close in the last two games they’ve lost, this week they don’t just stay close they stay ahead.

Panthers 17

Bears 10

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati – 7

Alert the presses we have a Carson Palmer sighting. After being AWOL for the first 3 weeks of the season Carson decided to show up against a putrid browns defense yet his presence wasn’t enough to lead the Bengals to victory. The problem for the Bengals offense is twofold. 1: They don’t have an established identity; last year they were a run the ball grind it out team and this year they’re trying to air it out to justify their personal additions. However Carson Palmer just isn’t a QB who can do that on a week to week basis anymore. 2.  A rushing attack that was dominant a year ago hasn’t produced a 100 yard rusher yet in 4 games; Cedric Benson is averaging an anemic 3.3 yards per carry. Tampa on the other hand was exposed in week 3 by the Steelers as a team that wasn’t quite as good as they thought they were coming into that game. However the Steelers are one of the better teams in the league so losing to them is not shameful as a young up and coming team.  The problem for the Bucs is that they can’t stop the run ranking 26^th in the NFL, however I just don’t think the Bengals can run the football well enough to make them pay and the Bucs get an upset on the road

Bucs 20

Bengals 17

Atlanta @ Cleveland

Atlanta -3

Peyton Hillis 2010: Haircut hall of fame

I expected Atlanta to blow out an over matched 49’ers team at home but not only did they not do that they were a play away from outright losing the game. The Browns represent a much more game opponent coming off their first win of the year against the Bengals.  Carson Palmer put up a solid game against an atrocious Cleveland pass defense so I’d pencil Matt Ryan in for a breakout performance as well. The Browns on the other hand are riding the effective running of Peyton Hillis, and the not so bad play of Seneca Wallace who at least turns the ball over less than Jake Delhomme. I think that’s enough for the Browns to make it 2 straight at home and send the Falcons back to the drawing board after what we thought was a breakout win against the Saints two weeks ago.

Browns 20


Falcons 17

St. Louis @ Detroit

Detroit -3


The Sam Bradford express heads out on the road to take on the winless Detroit Lions. Earlier I talked about Bradford being the real deal and I think is the game thats going to cement that in a lot of peoples minds. Both the Lions and the Rams have terrible pass defenses and the Lions have the seemingly better set of weapons with Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, but Sam Bradford will overcome that on the road to lead the Rams to victory in a minor upset. I expect something close to 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for the OU product.

Rams 31


Lions 27

NY Giants @ Houston

Pick Em

The Giants are coming in hot after a demolition of the Bears on Sunday night with a marvelous 10 sack performance by their defense while the Texans were one play away from overtime against the Raiders. One good that came out that game is Arian Foster getting back on track to the tune of  131 yards on a meager 16 carries. The Giants also got their running game back on track with Ahmad Bradshaw putting together 129 yards and a touchdown. He would have had two if he held onto the ball instead of watching himself in the jumbo tron but that’s for another time. However with all that ink being devoted to the prospective running games I think this is going to be game where both teams end up airing it out. However with no Andre Johnson and a revitalized Giants pass rush I think big blue comes out on top.

Giants 27

Texans 20

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis -8.5

This is the week the Chiefs are brought back down to earth from their undefeated high. The Colts just lost a game they couldn’t afford to loss against the Jags putting them at 0-2 in their division and if they don’t get things righted quickly they’ll be looking at a wild card berth. The Chiefs have gotten here on the back of their running game, special teams, and a defense that’s solid enough to keep them in the games. The Chiefs formula to win this game is pretty simple run the ball and keep it out of Peyton Manning’s hands. Keep time of possession in their favor and limit the Colts opportunities. The problem is we’ve seen that same formula fail when executed to near perfection. The Dolphins had the ball for 45 minutes of the game last year against the Colts; they ran 84 plays to the colts 35 and still lost the game. I doubt the Chiefs will execute as well as the Dolphins, but I’m pretty sure they’ll still lose like them.

Colts 31

Chiefs 17

Green Bay @ Washington

Green Bay- 3

Aaron Rodgers and crew on the road against a Skins team that just pulled the upset in honor of Captain Campbell’s soup himself, I have a feeling that this is the week the Packers put together a blow out against a solid opponent. The Redskins got beat at home pretty solidly by the Rams because they couldn’t stop a passing attack lead by Sam Bradford. I don’t think they’ll do any better against Aaron Rodgers. The question for me is how could the Packers not make a trade for Marshawn Lynch, a team with super bowl aspirations has to make that move because John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson clearly aren’t going to get it done.  However with that being said the Packers lack of running game doesn’t hurt them this week as the beat the Skins soundly.

Green Bay 38

Skins 27

New Orleans @ Arizona

New Orleans -6.5

Fun Fact. Max Hall hates Utah

This seems like a pretty easy call for a New Orleans win. Even after coming off a bad performance against the Panthers they managed to still win the game. New Orleans has managed to scrape out several tough wins this year despite their previously explosive offense not being anywhere to be found. Arizona on the other hand just got blown out by San Diego in a 31 point game that wasn’t even that close. The Cardinals are starting an undrafted rookie Max Hall this week after finally having enough of the Derek Anderson experience. You can't ask more from your an undrafted rookie QB than to expect him to get a win against the world champs in his first start and he won't.

Saints 31

Cardinals 17

Tennessee @ Dallas

Dallas -6.5

Tennessee lost a heart breaker of a game to the Broncos last week as we talked about earlier. The Cowboys are coming off a win in a must win game against the Texans the presumably righted the ship in big D. Will we have another appearance by Roy Williams in the Dallas passing attack? Will Chris Johnson continue to be marginally effective? He’s being held to 3.8 yards a carry almost 2 yards lower than his 5.6 average of last year.  The Cowboys defense has been pretty strong against the run this year holding opponents to 80 yards and the Titans have only won games where Chris Johnson eclipses the 100 yard mark. This seems like a perfect combination for a Dallas win at home.

Cowboys 27

Titans 20

San Diego @ Oakland

San Diego -5.5

The Raiders have lost 13 consecutive times to the Chargers, the longest such streak in divisional play. I don’t see any reason why that streak ends this week. Bruce Gradkowski is coming off two monstrous hits in the previous game against the Texans which would have taken a quarterback with less toughness out of the game. However you don’t want your QB taking hits like that no matter how tough he is. Once again the Raiders can’t stop anybody running the football and this seems like the perfect week for Ryan Matthews to have a breakout game against a porous Raider run D. The Raiders always seem to play the Chargers closer than the final score indicates but always end up falling apart at the end. I don’t see that script changing this week.

Chargers 31

Raiders 24

Philadelphia @ San Francisco

Pick em

Kevin Kolb finally gets his chance to be a starter for the Philadelphia Eagles too bad he’s only keeping the seat warm for Michael Vick. While this may be a bad scenario for the Eagles wins wise this might be the perfect opportunity for Kevin Kolb to increase his trade value for a possible off season swap. The 49’ers on the other hand are still winless however with the terrible division that is the NFC west a win here and they’re right back in the division race. I’ve picked the 49’ers several times before because they just seem to have too much talent to be playing this poorly and I have to admit I’ve been suckered in again. I just can’t believe that they’ll go 0-5, at home, against a Kevin Kolb lead Eagles team.

49’ers 17

Eagles 13

Minnesota @ NY Jets

NY Jets -4

Best Touchdown dance EVER

Monday night games this year have been pretty damn good, or at least seemed like they were going to be pretty damn good in the upcoming week. The return of Randy Moss to Minnesota, Moss Revis 2: This time it’s for blood, and Brett Favre revisited his initial post retirement hang out. All of these things come together along with what a lot of people thought might be a super bowl preview. Mark Sanchez has strung together 3 consecutive great games and now the spotlights on him in what I think will be a bit of quarterback duel. Brett Favre loves throwing up 50/50 passes when he’s under pressure except in weeks 1-3 he was throwing those up to Bernard Berrian……. And now he’s throwing them to Randy Moss, the best 50/50 pass catcher of all time. I think this just might make Favre look a little better. Combine that with a fired up Randy Moss who’s playing to shove it in the face of Bill Belichick and the entire Pats organization and you have a recipe for a Minnesota win coming out of the bye week.

Vikings 30

Jets 24