Week 4 Preview

Week 4: the beginning of the bye weeks. We’re about to hit to hit the quarter mark on this football season. At this point things are starting to become a bit clearer. There are still a lot of teams we don’t know everything about the really good teams and the really bad teams are starting to come into focus. A few teams are looking to really get a leg up in their division this week with the Jets and the Bears looking to get to 3-0 in division play. The best game is either Baltimore v Pittsburgh or Miami v New England either way I don’t think you can go wrong, both should be tightly contested division games. A couple of notes then onto the picks

Special Teams are still 1/3 of the game

We all like to talk about how important special teams are and last week was a perfect example of that. 3games were won or lost based on special teams. If Sebastian Janikowski or Garrett Hartley can make chip shots both the Saints and the Raiders leave last week with a win. Leon Washington single handedly lead the Seahawks to victory or if you’re a Chargers fan they’re lack of special teams coverage lead them straight into ruin. The Saints went out and signed old faithful John Carney but it doesn’t look like there are any saviors on the way for the AFC West, so the Chargers and Raiders will have to figure this out on their own.

You have to pass the ball and stop the pass

The old Football axiom has always been being able to run the ball and stop the run but it looks like it’s about time for that to change. There have been 5 400 yard passers in the NFL through 3 weeks and there are 2 guys with over 1,000 yards 3 weeks into the season. The top 3 defenses in pass completion percentage are 2-1, 2-1, and 3-0. This league more than ever is about being able to pass the ball with a dynamic offense and being able to slow down the other teams passing attack.

Arizona is by far the worst 2-1 team in the league

The Cardinals are terrible they’ve beaten the Ram’s and the Raiders neither convincingly actually they tried their hardest to give the Raiders the game last week. They had two special teams’ turnovers in their own red zone however Oakland only turned them into 6 points. The Raiders are driving down the field to win the game and they give up a 40 yard pass interference call to get Oakland to their own 8. Where they proceed to miss a 32 yard chip shot. Arizona couldn’t have tried much harder to lose that game, Oakland just refused to win.

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Atlanta -7

Seriously, he was the 49'ers offensive coordinator

Atlanta might have had their NFC North coming out party last week going into the Superdome and beating the champs or they could have just gotten lucky when Garrett Hartley sliced an absolute gimme from 29 yards out. The Niners on the other hand don’t present us with many questions; they’re just flat out terrible. The firing of Jimmy Raye isn’t going to solve all the problems they have and more than likely it will create more. Don't get me wrong Jimmy Raye was god awful, he looked like they picked a random old guy from the stands as their offensive coordinator and told him to just pick plays that looked neat. However name me the last time a team fired their offensive coordinator mid season and their offense improved. This game seems sort of reminiscent of the Cardinals going into the Georgia Dome in week 2 and getting absolutely spanked. If the Falcons want to establish themselves as a legit contender they have to crush the bad teams, especially at home I think they do it once again this week.

Falcons 38

49’ers 17

New York Jets @ Buffalo

No Line

The Jets are coming off back to back wins over divisional rivals which wipes the ugly Ravens loss out of our collective memories. They’re offense is starting to click behind the Passing of Mark Sanchez and the running of….. Ladainian Tomlinson. I have to admit I thought he was absolutely washed up coming into the season, so far he’s been the best running back on the Jets by far and they’re rewarding him with the lion’s share of the carries. The Buffalo Bills also proved me wrong last week, they didn’t get the win but Ryan Fitzpatrick was without a doubt a spark plug for their offense. He once again faces a sub par passing defense in the Jets who will once again be without their lonely island. As much as I would like to root for the Harvard guy to get the Bills their first win I don’t think it’s in the cards this week

Jets 31

Bills 24

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Cincinnati -3

Cincinnati keeps managing to win despite the absolutely terrible play from Carson Palmer I talked about how bad he was prior to last week and he didn’t disappoint putting up a 200 yard 2 interception gem at a 50% clip. If you watched that game you saw the Panthers drop at least 2 sure fire interceptions. However the Bengal’s are lucky enough to have what seems like a solid defense. Outside of week 1 they’ve put together back to back good performances. The Browns just got through testing the Ravens a lot more than anyone expected I think they’ll give the Bengal’s more than they bargained for, but they’re terrible pass defense was their undoing. This week it will make Carson Palmer look just good enough to lead the Bengal’s to victory.

Bengal’s 17

Browns 13

Detroit @ Green Bay

No line

Green Bay is coming off giving the Bears an absolute gift on Monday night. We already talked about all the turnovers earlier this week, but they still have to clean their game up. Despite losing the game Aaron Rodgers was absolutely stellar and he’s going up against a Lions pass defense that has only had success against…. Brett Favre. Yikes. So expect big things from him this week. Last Monday showed me something about the Packers defense, they need to be playing with a lead otherwise they’re not quite the same playing from behind. Luckily for them they’ll be playing with a lead this week which should allow their rushers to pin their ears back and get after Shaun Hill. Combine that with what looks like an absent Jahvid Best and things don’t look good for the Lions

Packers 27

Lions 13

Carolina @ New Orleans

New Orleans -13.5

Carolina might be the worst team in the league.  However something that hasn’t been talked about is that the Saints might not be as good as we thought. They’ve only beaten a terrible 49’ers team and a bad Vikings team and they didn’t beat either of them convincingly. They miss the dynamic element Reggie Bush added to their backfield and to top it off they might be without Pierre Thomas this weekend. Carolina hasn’t been able to get their running game going the main reason being that they haven’t tried; only giving DeAngelo Williams a measly 10 carries last week in a game that was close throughout. They have to change that if they want to keep this game close I think they do. However I don’t think it’s enough, the Saints might not be as good as we thought but they’re better than the Panthers.

Saints 34

Panthers 20

Yet another reason I like Joe Flacco

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -1.5

Pittsburgh has definitely been the talk of the past week. Everyone has pretty much anointed them as the best team in football up to this point, while Baltimore comes in under the radar after a game that ended up being more competitive than we all thought against the Browns. I don’t know why but something about this game tells me to pick the Ravens. Maybe it’s Joe Flacco finally getting things going. Maybe it’s the fact that the Steelers are a blitzing defense and Joe’s terrific against the blitz. Maybe it’s the Ravens needing a division win after losing to Cincy in week 2. I don’t quite know why but I just feel like the Ravens are going to send the Steelers back to Big Ben with a loss.

Ravens 17

Steelers 13

Seattle @ St. Louis

Seattle -1.5

St. Louis surprised a lot of people last week with a tough win on the road against a game Redskins team. They just flat outplayed them, and they outplayed without their best player Steven ‘Action’ Jackson for the 2^nd half. I mean look if you had told a Rams fan before the game that Kenneth Darby is going to get 14 carries I think they would have predicted a loss, instead it was a 14 point win. I don’t know whether Sam Bradford is legit but the Rams sure think he is. Once again they put the ball in his hands giving him 37 attempts. He’s 7^th in the league in attempts averaging 39 per game. The rams are going against the traditional ‘protect your young QB’ style and letting him learn on the job and frankly I like it. If you don’t have confidence in your QB throwing the ball don’t draft him. The Seahawks on the other hand seem to be the classic good at home bad on the road team. 2 home blowouts, and 1 road blowout going the other way. Well this week they’re on the road so I expect Sam Bradford to notch back to back wins with or without Steven Jackson.

Rams 24

Seahawks 17

Denver @ Tennessee

Tennessee -6.5

Denver and Tennessee are two teams going in opposite directions, Denver coming off a loss to the Colts at 1-2 while Tennessee is coming in off a win against the Giants at 2-1. It seems as though Chris Johnson won’t be getting to 2500 yards rushing but he also won’t be hit with the notorious 400+ touch slump. He’s still chugging away just like last year breaking a big run every game along with a touchdown or two. The Broncos on the other hand are firmly Josh McDaniel’s team now, and that means they can no longer plug any running back in and run the ball but they can throw it around the yard with a paltry assembling of talent. Kyle Orton is 10 yards behind Phillip Rivers for the league lead in passing yards and is on pace for a 5700 yard season, only through 3 games in but still impressive. This shapes up to be classic battle of opposing style the main difference being the Titans have 7^th ranked total defense and are 5^th against the pass while the Broncos are a less impressive 18^th in total defense. The Broncos just got blasted on the road in Seattle I think they keep it closer this week but still fall.

Titans 20

Broncos 17

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Indianapolis -7

Indy is beginning to look like the team we expected, which is basically the same team they’ve been the past 3 or 4 years. Peyton Manning demands greatness of his wide outs, that’s what turns a guy like Austin Collie into the #1 WR in the league stats wise, and why somebody is probably picking up Blair White in your fantasy league(Quick side note: it always seems that the Colts lead the NFL in white receivers they always have at least 1.)The Jags on the other hand after their opening week win against the Broncos have been terrible. They’ve gotten blown out in back to back weeks and David Garrard is playing terrible and he might be worried about getting benched; if their back up Luke McCown hadn’t torn his ACL. The Colts swept the Jags last year in the division play although they only lost by 2 and 4 points. I think with a gimpy Mojo and a struggling QB they aren’t able to keep it as close this time.

Colts 31

Jags 17

Houston @ Oakland

Houston -3.5

Oakland dominated pretty much every phase of the game against the Cardinals and still managed to lose. That’s the mark of a bad team. Houston is coming off a loss against the Cowboys that was actually closer then the box score would lead you to believe. The Raiders have had a semblance of offensive balance with the insertion of Bruce Gradkowski, what they haven’t had is the ability to convert this balance into points. They score at an absolutely putrid 23% clip in the red zone. The Texans could never put things together against the Cowboys last week, Andre Johnson wasn’t quite himself and without him they’re offense isn’t nearly as dynamic. Nnamdi Asomugha is coming off a pretty good game against Larry Fitzgerald holding him to only 2 catch 26 yard game although one of the catches was for a touchdown. The problem is the Raiders still can’t stop the run but without Duane Brown the Texans can’t run or pass as effectively as they did in the first two weeks. They’re still effective enough to get the win however

Texans 23

Raiders 17

Washington @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia -6.5

They always knew it would come to this

Here it is, probably the most anticipated NFC East match up of the year. Donovan Mcnabb returns to the place where they boo Santa Claus yet he expects cheers. I hope he gets em but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Philly fans are about as fickle as they get, they turned on Kevin Kolb so fast it must have given Mcnabb a chuckle or two to see it happen to someone else. Now they’re Michael Vicks team and he’s wasted no time in taking the reins and leading them to back to back victories on the strength of his legs but more so his arm. His newly discovered pocket awareness and accuracy have made him even more deadly than he was way back when in 2006. The Redskins seemed like a pretty tough team after beating the Cowboys and then giving the Texans all they can handle, but then they lost to the Rams…. by 2 touchdowns. However something tells me to throw out the records here because there’s no way Mcnabb goes into Philly with an opportunity to shove it in that organization and all those fans faces and lays an egg. However this is the same guy that puked on the field during the super bowl so maybe he doesn’t handle pressure all that well. I just don’t think he lets a chance for revenge pass him by. Skins in an upset.

Redskins 24

Eagles 20

Arizona @ San Diego

San Diego -9

The Chargers just can’t seem to get out of their own way; once again they start the year off digging themselves a hole. This time it seems you can put most of the blame squarely on the Chargers special teams who have given up 3 touchdowns in 3 games. Giving up 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns in the same game is inexcusable. I would say Phillip Rivers was out of his mind last week with 455 yards, but he’s just that good it seems. However one bad omen for them is that LaRod Stephens-Howling (Doesn’t that sound like a law firm?) had a kickoff return for touchdown against the Raiders last week. The problem is the Cardinals are just terrible and they tried as hard as they could to give that game away to the Raiders the Raiders just refused to take it. The Chargers won’t be so obliging.

Chargers 27

Cardinals 13

Chicago @ NY Giants

Pick Em

After one of the worst looking wins I’ve seen in a while the Bears head into the Meadow lands looking to keep their record unblemished while the Giants look to wipe away the memories of the past two weeks by giving the Bears their first loss. The Giants were in a close game with the Titans until an Ahmad Bradshaw fumble on the Tennessee 5 yard line completely sapped all their momentum. The Bears on the other hand took advantage of a lack of discipline from the Packers. Well the good news for them is that the Giants aren’t that disciplined either as they had 11 penalties for 86 yards against the Titans. Even more troubling for the G-Men is their inability to stop anyone on defense. This bodes well for Bears offense looking to get back into a groove after struggling against a solid Packers D.

Bears 27

Giants 20

New England @ Miami

New England -1

The Law firm of Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis

Once again AFC East teams battle it out in prime time except this time it’s Monday night as opposed to Sunday night. Both teams are coming off divisional shoot outs. The Pats won theirs against the immortal known as Ryan Fitzpatrick while the Fins came up short against the Sanchize. The thing that stuck out for me from that Miami Sunday night game is that Brandon Marshall is one of the top 3 wide receivers in football and the Dolphins have a solid pass rusher in Cameron Wake the problem is you can run right at him. I watched Dustin Keller seal him off several times on edge runs. If he’s getting sealed by a tight end not know for his blocking that doesn’t bode well for him. This may not seem like much especially when talking about a passing offense like the Patriots but they ran the ball effectively last week with Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis (Another Law firm) to the tune of 200 net yards rushing. If the Patriots can run the ball that makes their passing game that much more effective and Tom Brady doesn’t need any help. This game will probably be another shoot out thanks to the porous Pats defense but the Dolphins will once again be on the wrong end.

Pats 38

Dolphins 31