Super Bowl XLV Preview

When the Super Bowl kicks off later today it will be a battle between two of the most storied franchises in NFL History. Two well balanced teams that can hurt you on both offense and defense. These teams are eerily similar, both run aggressive 3-4 defenses predicated on zone blitz schemes, both rely on mobile quarterbacks to make plays for them when things break down, and both have a dominant outside linebacker and secondary player that could change the outcome of the game on Sunday. Screen and Roll Out is going to break the game down on each side of the ball for the respective teams before giving our prediction.

When the Packers have the ball

The Packers offense revolves around Aaron Rodgers just as much as the Colts do around Peyton Manning or the Patriots do around Tom Brady. During this year’s season and playoffs he’s elevated himself into the discussion for best quarterback in the league. Aaron Rodgers has all the tools you look for in an elite quarterback. Arm Strength, accuracy, leadership, the ability to compete under pressure, and the ability to escape the pocket and create on the run as well. An article came out a few days ago about a conversation he had with Steve Young about what it takes to follow up a legend and I think that Aaron Rodgers compares favorably to Steve Young except that he’s come into his own a good deal earlier than Young did. The Packers are a pass first team; however they’ve been able to move the football on the ground in all 3 playoff games they’ve had and its all largely due to the ability of James Starks whose been a bit of a late season revelation for these Green Bay Packers. In the 3 postseason games he’s posted yardage total of 263 which doesn’t seem that impressive until you see that their leading rusher averaged 43 yards per game during the season. Watching this NFL playbook video should give you a good idea of the kind of talent the Packers have when it comes to pass protection. Bryan Beluga has come in at right tackle and done a fine job holding the edge and replacing 13 year stalwart Mark Tauscher. The Packers probably utilize the most talented group of wide receivers in the NFL going 4 deep at wide out with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. All 4 have the ability to make big plays and all of them have the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Greg Jennings is the leader of this group and somehow still remains an underrated player at the wide receiver position, not only does he provide a huge big play threat like a Mike Wallace for the Steelers but he also provides reliability on pretty much every route that the Packers like to run in their route tree. He’s still considered undersized at 5’11 but over the past 3 years he’s averaged over 1200 yards a season at 16 yards a catch. On the other side of Jennings is Donald Driver who had his consecutive 1,000 yard receiving seasons streak stopped at 6 this year but he’s still in absolutely fantastic shape, however he’s the 2^nd receiver in name only at this point as bath James Jones and Jordy Nelson have passed him in production. One significant loss on the offensive side of the ball the Packers have suffered is the loss of their pro bowl tight end Jermichael Finely, however Andrew Quarless has come in and provided another big athletic body and while not as talented as Finley as a receiver he’s quite the blocker in the backfield and provides an adequate safety valve for Rodgers when he’s under pressure.

When the Steelers have the ball

Visions like this are dancing in Steelers Fans heads as we speak

The Steelers have a great quarterback themselves in Ben Roethlisberger however they employ a more balanced attack where they complement their deep passing attack with the running of Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers offensive line is about as decimated as you’ll see in the super bowl with both of their starting tackles on injured reserve their starting center unlikely play and an undrafted rookie starting at right guard this is about as patchwork as it gets. However with a quarterback like Big Ben behind center they can count on him to break so many tackles per game and make so many plays when their protection breaks down that it hasn’t hurt the Steelers as much as it would hurt a normal team.  The Steelers are very reminiscent of their super bowl teams of 70’s built around a strong armed quarterback who goes deep early and often and a talented running back who get the tough yards between the tackles but also has the speed to break it outside. Speaking of outside the Steelers have one of the fastest players in the NFL on the outside in Mike Wallace who was second in the NFL in yards per catch at an absolutely insane 21yards per grab. The difference between the explosive Mike Wallace of last year and this years version is his ability to expand upon his big play ability to create space for other players as well as capitalize on that space himself and make catches on routes underneath the coverage. The steady veteran of this receiving corps is still Hines Ward former Super Bowl MVP and renown as the dirtiest wide receiver in football. Whether you think he's a dirty player or not theres no question that Ward is one of the toughest receivers in football and someone I would absolutely trust to come down with a catch in a tough situation. 

When the Steelers are on defense

The Steelers were one of the best defenses in the league according to pretty much any metric you threw at them. They were # 2 in yardage allowed behind the Chargers by only 5 yards per game.  They were 5^th in interceptions, 1^st in sacks, and #1 in rush defense by almost 30 yards per game. Their 3-4 defense stout up front with perennial pro bowler Casey Hampton at the nose flanking him are the fantastic beard of Brett Keisel and the young emerging Ziggy Hood of Missouri.  However where the Pittsburgh Steelers lap the rest of the NFL is in their linebacking corps.  Its home to pro bowlers at 3 of the 4 positions, all pros at 3 of the 4 positions, and it has the defensive player of the year of 2009. It’s hard to say where this linebacking corps start, most would say it’s with James Harrison and I would find it hard to disagree, but I honestly think the key to this 3-4 defense resides on the other side in LaMarr Woodley. Over the past 3 years he’s racked up 35 sacks which would put him 1 behind James Harrison but while James Harrison is coming into the downside of his career at 32 Woodley is entering his at the age of 26. Regardless of whom you prefer when you can get an average of 24 sacks from your outside linebackers every year you’ll be in good shape.  The Steelers secondary revolves around 2010 defensive player of the year Troy Polamalu. He's an absolute beast in the box and has the coverage range to be pretty much anywhere on the field prior to the snap and still not have an idea of where his responsibility lies. In only 14 games this year he had 7 interceptions and numerous big plays with tackles on the goal line and in the backfield, watching Polamalu play you can see that his instincts are some of the best in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball and its these same instincts he'll need to quickly diagnose the intentions of Aaron Rodgers this Sunday. 

When the Packers are on defense

B.J. Raji has a belt of his own

The Packers are built like the Steelers in that they run a 3-4 defense that emphasizes getting pressure through a zone blitz scheme, where the two teams differ is how they get their pressure. The Packers don’t have the talent that the Steelers do in their linebacking corps however they have a much better secondary and defensive line and they use that to their advantage in their schemes. The Packers utilize Charles Woodson in a similar fashion to the way the Steelers use Troy Polamalu moving him all over the field sometimes as a blitzer, sometimes as a nickel back, sometimes in bump and run on the outside, and other times in a short zone assignment. Any offense that plays the Packers needs to be aware of where he is at all times. The story of the Green Bay secondary is no longer Charles Woodson however its now the play of Tramon Williams and Sam Shields how are the primary cover corners of this team and form arguably the best cover corner tandem in the league. Williams has elevated himself into the shutdown corner echelon while Sam Williams has become a fantastic playmaker in his own right with two huge interceptions on the road against Chicago in the NFC Championship. On their defensive line the Packers rely on two guys to clog the middle and create pressure those two guys are B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins. Both can switch between the nose and either end position creating a great deal of flexibility along the defensive line and both players have the ability to drop into coverage occasionally in zone dog schemes as demonstrated by Raji in the NFC championship game. The undoubted star of this team however lies in the linebacking corps. Clay Matthews has become one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL almost overnight, coached by one of the great pass rushers in Steelers history in Kevin Greene he’s made his way  from walk on at USC to first round pick to being two votes shy of winning this year’s defensive player of the year. If the Steelers want to have a chance to win this game they can’t let Matthews dominate the game and constantly keep Big Ben on the run. 

Prediction

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that this will be a close game, and looking at the last time these teams played could give use some details into what this game could look like. The last time these teams played was December of 2009 and the Steelers won in a 37-36 shootout that wasn't decided until the last play of the game where Ben Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Mike Wallace. Big Ben went for over 500 yards and Aaron Rodgers responded with 380 of his own but it wouldn't be enough as the Steelers managed to eke out a win at home. A year later the Steelers have Troy Polamalu while the Packers have an Aaron Rodgers that has seemingly become the best QB in the NFL. While I think Super Bowl experience matters and the Steelers have it in spades I think the Jets gave an absolute blue print to beating the Steelers in that second half, if you're physical with their wide receivers their offensive line can't hold up and Big Ben will try to force things. The Packers defense has capitalized every time someone has forced a throw in these playoffs and I think someone in their secondary makes another huge play in the super bowl that will change the momentum of this game. Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP because the QB almost always does but the Green Bay secondary will be the stars in this super bowl.

Packers 31

Steelers 27

NFL Conference Championship Game live blog.

NFL Divisional Round Saturday Live Blog.

NFL Preview 2011 Edition

Week 16 Predictions heads up: 7-9

Week 16 Predictions against the Spread: 5-11

Record so far: 118-89

Carolina @ Atlanta

Atlanta – 14.5

If Atlanta doesn’t win this game all the great work they’ve done this year will be pretty much lost as they’ll probably be out of the top seed in the NFC. For them to do this they’d have to lose to a Carolina team playing for a coach they know won’t be back next year and with a number of players who know they won’t be back next year on the road. I just can’t see this Falcon team doing that. The Falcons lost a game to the Saints that it seemed the Saints pretty much wanted to give away, they can’t afford that two weeks straight. Luckily for them they won’t.

Falcons 34

Panthers 13

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Baltimore – 9.5

Its like a fantasy......only its real

The Ravens still have hopes of earning a first round bye and have at least one home game this playoffs with a win by them combined with a Steelers lose. However the reason the Ravens are in this predicament in the first place is because they lost to this very same Bengals team giving them 2 division losses compared to the Steelers 1. Last week the Bengals played another team fighting for their playoff lives in the Chargers however that game was at home against a more flawed team that hadn’t gotten a look at the Bengals before. I can see the orange cats sneaking up on the Ravens once but definitely not twice.

Ravens 24

Bengals 17

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Pittsburgh – 5.5

Pittsburgh has a simple formula for their first round bye, beat the Browns on the road and they get it. The Steelers were Colt McCoy’s first pro game and he played them on the road and put up respectable numbers for a rookie against that defense. He’s only gotten better with the game’s he’s played since then. While the Browns have lost 3 straight tough games I think the chance to put a damper in the hearts of a division rival combined with a solid running game and a Steelers team without Troy Polamalu will lead them to victory.

Browns 20

Steelers 17

Minnesota @ Detroit

Detroit – 3.5

Somebody break up the Lions; winners of three straight and two consecutive road games they’ve put together their best stretch of football in quite a long time. A great way to end the season would be to beat a Vikings team that’s been solid under interim head coach Leslie Frazier. To do that they’ll need to corral Joe Webb who’s had the look of a veteran in the first few starts of his young NFL career. As well as the Giants defense has played I just don’t think they have the team speed to contain Webb, Adrian Peterson, and Percy Harvin who are beginning to look the offensive trio of the future if you’re a Vikings fan.

Vikings 27

Lions 20

Oakland @ Kansas City

Kansas City – 3.5

In a game that seemed a lot more exciting 3 weeks ago the Raiders play the Chiefs in a game that could have been for the division title but instead is for absolutely nothing. The Chiefs have little reason to play any of their starters this week but I doubt they’ll rest them the entirety of the game as they’ll want to have some momentum going into wild card weekend and you never want to give a free win to a division rival. I think the Chiefs finish the year as the most surprising 11 win team this NFL season.

Chiefs 23

Raiders 20

Miami @ New England

New England – 5.5

Won't see this guy  for a while

At this point New England has everything wrapped up and if there’s any team that learned to not play any players when they have nothing to gain its New England. After watching Wes Welker go down with a season ending injury last year in a game against the Texans. I would be incredibly surprised if his players played more than a series or 2 if any at all. I think that will open the door for Tony Sporano to get his last win as the coach of the Miami Dolphins.

Dolphins 17

Patriots 14

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

New Orleans – 7.5

New Orleans pulled off a huge win last week at home against the Saints not only securing their playoff berth but giving them a chance to snatch the division away in the final week of the season. Although the odds of it are slim since the Falcons are playing the worst team in the NFL at home no less they’ll still give themselves a chance with a win over a tough Buccaneers team.

Saints 31

Buccaneers 24

Buffalo @ NY Jets

Pick Em

The Jets while already in the playoffs are looking to create at least a sense of momentum if not any real momentum against the Bills this week. The Jets offense actually played well last week it was their defense that let them down against the Bears. The Jets defense while still ranked 4^th overall in the league has looked like a shell of itself these last few weeks ever since getting obliterated against the Patriots in week. They'll get themselves together this week however.

NY Jets 24

Bills 9

Chicago @ Green Bay

Green Bay – 9.5

In a game the Packers have to win and a game that gets the Bears absolutely nothing I don’t see how the Packers can lose this one at home. Combined with the way they’ve played on both sides of the ball recently and I think they could still win this game even if the Bears had something to play for luckily for them they don’t.

Packers 33

Bears 20

Jacksonville @ Houston

Houston – 3

The Jaguars had a terrible loss last week against the Redskins who were lead by Rex Grossman. The Jaguars are still in the playoff hunt somehow but that will probably be over soon if the Colts can handle their business against the Titans. The Jaguars will be without both Mojo and David Garrard for this game which seems to spell doom especially heading out on the road to face a Texans team that could be playing for their coaches job if he hasn’t already been fired. Despite losing back to back tough games  and being without two of their offense stars I think the Jaguars still find a way to have a reason to watch the scoreboard.

Jaguars 23

Houston 20

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis – 9.5

The Colts basically need to win and they’re in. Once again it seems as though Peyton and company will be in the playoffs despite the gloom and doom predictions some of which could be read on this very blog the Colts has continued his career playoff streak. The Titans might have finally pushed Jeff Fisher out the door with their dreadful performance this year. One thing is for sure the Titans will look a lot different next year and the Colts are winning this game.

Colts 27

Titans 17

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia – 3

Normally losing a player of Michael Vicks caliber would be an absolutely devastating blow to any team luckily for the Philadelphia Eagles they have Kevin Kolb as their backup quarterback who is more than capable of beating the Cowboys in the final game of the season as another tryout for whatever team he’ll be starting for next year. The Cowboys are also turning to their backup quarterback Stephen McGee who had one game where he managed one touchdown throw in a heartbreaking loss to Arizona. I’ll just say if he couldn’t lead them to a victory over Arizona his chances are even slimmer against the Eagles.

Eagles 27

Cowboys 20

NY Giants @ Washington

NY Giants – 3.5

The Giants need to win this game and get a little help in order to make it into the playoffs. It’s pretty simple actually if the Giants win and the Packers lose the G-men are in. Both of these games start at the same time and while I’m sure all the Giant players will say there won’t be any score board watching I have a hard time believing it. Luckily for them that Packers Bears game will give them a heads up pretty soon that their playoff hopes are dashed. However their still playing a Rex Grossman lead Redskins team, and while he’s been nothing but solid these past two weeks it’s only translated into a win over a hobbled Jacksonville team in overtime.

Giants 27

Redskins 19

San Diego @ Denver

San Diego – 3.5

Better luck next year guys

For the first time in 4 years the Chargers won’t make the playoffs and for some reason their owner Dean Spanos decided to assure both Wade Phillips and A.J. Smith their jobs before the season was even over. Why; I don't know but luckily for them their jobs are safe and they'll be around next year to lead this same group of underachievers to another disappointing season for Charger Fans. It doesn't seem like their window for a super bowl is closing but who knows if its ever really been open.

Chargers 27

Broncos 13

Arizona @ San Francisco

San Francisco – 6

In one of the most bizarre firings I think I’ve ever seen in the NFL the 49’ers fired head coach Mike Singletary with one game left in the season. I don’t know if he was so embarrassing the organization couldn’t handle one more game of him but I don’t know they’ve made themselves an ever bigger embarrassment by firing a head coach a week before the season ends. I think the embarrassment continues this week with a loss to the Cardinals

Cardinals 27

49’ers 23

St. Louis @ Seattle

St. Louis – 3

I understand the fact this is the first real playoff game of the year with true win or go home implications but part of me still can’t believe that a 7-9 team could make the playoffs and the NFL decided to flex that to prime time. With all that being said I still think this game could end up being surprisingly good with two teams that are close in talent but heading in seemingly opposite directions. The young Rams with a young nucleus on both sides of the ball against an aging Seahawks team lead by an offense seemingly on its last legs at most every skill position. It seems that Matt Hasselbecks ailing back will keep him out of this game and that will keep the Seahawks out of the playoffs.

Rams 24

Seahawks 16

Weekend Preview: Sorry I actually had a life for once edition.

Sorry I got back from an ugly sweater party at 3:30 so this is going to be pretty short. I wouldn't have felt right not doing a weekend picks article even if you don’t read it until the games are over.

New Orleans @ Baltimore

Baltimore – 2.5

After watching Matt Schaub rip apart a tired Baltimore defense in the second half of that Ravens Texans game I think New Orleans keep their streak of 30+ point games going and beat the Ravens.

Saints 33

Ravens 27

Arizona @ Carolina

Carolina –2.5

Arizona has had such weird hot and cold games this year but at this point I think the Panthers are playing for the first overall pick. Arizona goes on the road and gets a win.

Cardinals 17

You almost made it through the Year T.O. how could you

Panthers 10

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati – 1

What’s that you say? Terrell Owens lambasting is coaches and the owner? What a surprise.

Browns 23

Bengals 17

Washington @ Dallas

Dallas- 7

Everyone I’d like to reintroduce you to Rex Grossman. If theres one thing Mike Shanahan can’t resist it’s a white quarterback with a strong arm with a propensity to throw ridiculous interceptions. He fixed John Elway and he thinks he can fix everyone else. Someone please talk those Redskin fans off the ledge.

Cowboys 37

Redskins 10

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis – 5

Sorry. As much as I want to after their gusty performance against my Raiders last week I can’t pick against the Peyton with the division on the line.

Colts 27

Jaguars 24

Buffalo @ Miami

Miami – 4.5

Miami wins this game and nobody outside of Miami cares.

Dolphins 17

One word

Bills 13

Philadelphia @ NY Giants

NY Giants – 3

The Giants rushing attack has been stupendous lately with the two headed monster of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw but Philadelphia has even better two headed monster in Michael Vick and Desean Jackson.

Eagles 31

Giants 24

Kansas City @ St. Louis

St. Louis - 3

Matt Cassel’s a game time decision if he plays reverse the scores, because I have absolutely no faith in the Brodie Croyle Express.

Rams 23

Chiefs 10

Detroit @ Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay – 4

I'm sorry I'd like to pick against the almighty power of Josh Freeman and the other Mike Williams and a guy who's last name is blount........what a second no I don't.

Bucs 23

Lions 17

Houston @ Tennessee

Tennessee – 1

Tennessee had one of the most pointless late touchdowns in the NFL last week. A team that poorly coached will lose to a Texans team that’s only coached at a mediocre level.

Texans 24

Titans 21

Atlanta @ Seattle

Atlanta – 6.5

Atlanta goes on the road and has their 3^rd loss of the year at qwest field scaring every NFC team that could possibly play there in the first round.

Seahawks 24

Falcons 20

Denver @ Oakland

Bring on Friar Tuck

Oakland – 7.5

Tim Tebows first start is in the Black hole with a Raiders front four that leads the league in sacks?? This could get ugly

Raiders 31

Broncos 23

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh – 4.5

I don’t know how or why, but Rex Ryan will right the ship this week. Oh wait I know why, no Troy Polamalu.

Jets 16

Steelers 13

Green Bay @ New England

New England – 14

Patriots vs. the Packers with no Aaron Rodgers? Hide thine eyes.

Patriots 41

Packers 13

Chicago @ Minnesota

Chicago –7.5

It seems as though the career that wouldn’t die finally died. Brett Favres reign of terror is over. Good work America.

Bears 24

Vikings 10

Week 14 Preview: Sleepless in Screen and Roll Out

Cleveland @ Buffalo

Buffalo – 1

Cleveland enters this game on a 2 game win streak and with 5-7 record that doesn’t tell the story of how competitive a team they’ve been this year with victories over both the Patriots and Saints. Buffalo followed a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers at home by getting creamed by a Tavaris Jackson lead Minnesota Vikings team.  I don’t know if the Vikings have been inspired by Leslie Frazier, but that Vikings team hasn’t been good enough to blow out anybody this year. For the Bills to follow up such a tough outing against the Steelers with that egg tells me they’re not ready to play a team as tough as the Browns even at home.

Browns 23

Bills 20

Atlanta @ Carolina

Atlanta – 9

Atlanta just keeps winning. They may seem to get quite a few lucky breaks throughout the wins but at the end of the game the dirty birds are on top of the scoreboard. There’s absolutely no reason why that shouldn’t be the case against a dreadful Panthers team.

Falcons 31

Panthers 13

Green Bay @ Detroit

Green Bay – 7

Dear Aaron, See you soon. Love Ndamukong

The Packers put a hurt on the 49’ers last week with pretty much just Aaron Rodgers and nothing else. The Falcons exposed the Packers as a one dimensional team and the 49’ers lacked the talent to do the same. I think the Lions are in the same boat. While they have a borderline fantastic D line lead by Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch I don’t think their offense will be able to sustain enough drives to keep Rodgers off the field. The Packers win this one but only because they have one of the top 5 Qb’s in football right now.

Aaron Rodgers 31

Lions 27

Oakland @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville – 4

Being a Raider fan has been a significantly better experience this year than it has been for the past 8 years of my life, and while I’m very happy that we’re at 6 wins for the first time in 8 years I’m incredibly frustrated by the Raiders lack of consistency. If the good Raiders show up they might be able to slow down Mojo while running over the Jaguars with their two headed running attack of D-Mac and Michael Bush. If the bad Raiders show up the Jaguars will run all over them and dominate the game. I hate to say this but looking at their last two east coast games I think the bad Raiders will show up.

Jaguars 24

Raiders 13

New York Giants @ Minnesota

New York Giants - 3

Well this game has been reschedule to Monday because of the insane snow storm in Minneapolis, and that could have an effect on both teams but honestly I have no idea what that might be. This game is more or less the Giants playoff hopes. They’re 8-4 with games against Green Bay and Philadelphia left. This game is basically a must win with those two coming up. As good as the Vikings looked last week I think they bring Brett Favre back to preserve his starting record and it ends up costing them the game.

Giants 26

Vikings 17

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh – 9

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore was an absolutely fantastic game Sunday Night. Watching that game in comparison to the games from earlier Sunday it seemed like the Steelers and Ravens were playing at a different speed than the rest of the NFL. A lot of people think this will be a letdown game but I don’t think the Steelers can afford to let up knowing the Ravens are still right on their tail and the 2^nd seed isn’t guaranteed.

Steelers 31

Bengals 20

Tampa Bay @ Washington

Tampa Bay – 2

It sucks but I think the Buccaneers season ended last week against the Falcons. As good as the NFC is I think the two wildcard teams will probably be two of the following 3: New Orleans, New York, and Green Bay. I just don’t think Tampa Bay will elbow its way into that conversation but they can keep their hopes alive with a win this week over a listless Washington team that has seemingly given up on their season. 

Bucs 20

Redskins 13

St. Louis @ New Orleans

New Orleans – 10

The offensive rookie of the year trophy will be going to a Qb for the 2^nd time in history and the first time since Big Ben won it while leading the Steelers to the playoffs, can Sam Bradford pull of a similar feat? Hmmm I’ll say this somebody has to make it out of the NFC West and at this point I have to ask myself why not the Rams? Are they any more flawed than the Seahawks…….enh not really. This line seems a bit high when looking at the early year home performances of the Saints except for the fact that current Saints are on a 5 game winning streak putting up 30 in 4 of them. Well make it 6 straight with 30 in 5 of them.

Saints 34

Rams 20

Seattle @ San Francisco

San Francisco – 5.5

This is how bad the NFC west is. The 49’ers lost by 18 points in a game that wasn’t even that close last week and are 5 ½ point favorites over the Seahawks who won by 17. The reason being pretty much everyone knows that the Seahawks are a team that will just no show on the road.  Yes the Seahawks have been bad on the road this year but their road record is 2-3 which is just mediocre and they’ve beaten a tough Saints team in the superdome. I don’t think the Hawks have been given enough credit for the mediocre quality of road team they are. Mediocre will be enough to beat the 49’ers.

Seahawks 23

49’ers 20

New England @ Chicago

New England – 2.5

Solemn American Heads

I can’t pick against the Pats after that performance on Monday night football last week. At the same time I spent a quick hit last week finally admitting that the Bears were for real. The truth is I still believe both of those things I just think that the Pats are on a different level than the Bears. I think the Pats are at this point are the easy super bowl favorite while the Bears are a strong contender to make it to the NFC championship game at best. I think Tom Brady makes an example of the Bears cover 2 defense using short and intermediate passes as he leads the solemn american heads to victory.

Patriots 27

Bears 20

Denver @ Arizona

Denver – 4.5

In the 3^rd debut of a new head coach this NFL season we begin the 4 game season for Eric Studesville who prior to becoming the interim head coach had been a running backs coach his entire NFL coaching career. I doubt he’ll make much of an impression with this 4 game stint but so far the two interim coaches we’ve had this year have more or less knocked it out of the park in the 5 games they’ve coached.  The thing that was most confusing about the McDaniel’s firing is that the Broncos played hard for their coach in the loss against the Chiefs last week; if they can put together another effort like that they’ll beat a much worse Cardinals team starting John Skelton a rookie QB from Fordham.

Broncos 17

Cardinals 9

Miami @ New York Jets

New York Jets – 5

Wow just wow did New York get smashed last week. The Patriots absolutely went 1990’s Mike Tyson on them beating them relentlessly and not stopping until the bell rung. If the Jets are half the team we thought they were before that game last week they’ll beat this Dolphins team. They’re lead by an incredibly turnover prone QB in Chad Henne who should be just what the Dr. ordered to begin to rebuild the confidence of a Jets defense that has to be questioning itself after Tom Brady just dissected them. However what was more troubling than their defense was the absolute egg their offense laid. I don’t know if that’s as fixable as the defense however.

Jets 19

Dolphins 10

Kansas City @ San Diego

Pick Em

I have two words for you. Brodie Croyle. If San Diego doesn’t absolutely cream the Chiefs in this one they have no one to blame but themselves.

Chargers 23

Chiefs 10

I expect to see this next year with a 12 on it

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Philadelphia – 3.5

It just came down from the king of the NFL scoop Adam Schefter that both Winston Justice and Asante Samuel won’t be playing in the game against the Cowboys. As well as the Cowboys are playing I think that changes this game from a blowout to a close one. The Eagles with Michael Vick are too dynamic for a Cowboys team without Dez Bryant to keep up.

Eagles 34

Cowboys 27

Baltimore @ Houston

Baltimore – 2.5

Baltimore lost a game to the Steelers that will probably come back to bite them in the ass at the end of the year when it’s time for playoff seeding. That game could be the difference between the 2^nd seed and the 5^th or 6^th seed. Houston on the other hand probably had their season ended last week with that loss to the Eagles, doesn’t take a brain surgeon to see who I’m gonna pick here. Expect Joe Flacco to get back on track against that dreadful Texans pass defense.

Ravens 27

Texans 20

Saturday Night Week 13 Preview

New Orleans @ Cincinnati

New Orleans – 7

Early in the year I wasn’t a believer in the Saints, I saw the way their offense looked and I saw the points they put up and they didn’t have any resemblance to the Super Bowl champs of last year. However the Saints have put up 30 points or more in their past 3 games during a 4 game winning streak. The Bengals on the other hand extended their losing steak to 8 games with a loss to the Jets. They always seem to be competitive in games before things eventually fall apart for them. I think they fall apart again as the Saints continue their streak of 30+ point games. 

Saints 34

Bengals 24

Chicago @ Detroit

Chicago – 5

I told you last week that I was a believer in Chicago so I’m going with them in this game over the Lions. Detroit has nothing to play for except spoiler while the Bears are coming off probably their biggest win of the season beating a tough Eagles team at home.  Wait a second…….who does Chicago play next week? Oh will you look at that they play the Patriots next week, this has the classic makings of a trap game, so I’ll just say this Chicago will probably win this game but they’ll have to play all 60 minutes to do so.

Chicago 24

Detroit 23

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Green Bay – 9.5

Green Bay seems to be a one man team at this point with their only reliable source of any offense being Aaron Rodgers. Luckily for them that one man is good enough to beat the 49’ers while they’re at home. They had better use this game to find some other people to get Rodgers some help on offense or they might not make it into the playoffs.

Packers 27

49’ers 20

Denver @ Kansas City

Kansas City – 10

Kansas City showed they were legit by going on the road in one of the toughest environments in the NFL and absolutely handing it to the Seahawks. The Broncos showed who they were by losing at home to St. Louis in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have you believe. Chiefs in a big way.

Chiefs 31

Broncos 17

Cleveland @ Miami

Miami – 5

Note enough money on earth for me to block this guy

Miami was finally able to run the football for one last week as they ran over the Raiders to the tune of almost 200 total rushing yards with their combo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. The question is whether that was a one week aberration or a sign of things to come as they close out the season. Cleveland's rush defense is ranked 20th in the league so they're nothing to write home about however I think a guy like Shaun Rogers can make all the difference to a team that isn't a equipped to handle him and the Dolphins lack the size up front to handle him. Combine that with another installment of the Peyton Hillis show and I think the Browns go into Miami and pretty much end the Dolphins season.

Browns 19

Dolphins 17

Buffalo @ Minnesota

Minnesota – 5

With Adrian Peterson being a game time decision this game comes to down to whether you trust Brett Favre with possibly no Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin to be able to beat the Bills at home. My answer: Just barely.

Vikings 27

Bills 24

Washington @ N.Y. Giants

New York – 7.5

New York beat a tough Jags team at home in a thriller last week now they play one of those games they can’t afford to lose if they want to make it into the playoffs. The Redskins are a team who has beaten a few listless opponents and not much else but division games can bring out the best in NFC east teams.  However I doubt it'll bring out enough to beat a Giants team fighting for their playoff lives.

Giant 17

Redskins 9

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Tennessee – 3.5

Farewell Rusty Smith we hardly knew ye

Sadly it seems as though the Rusty Smith era has come to an end in Tennessee after a 20-0 drubbing at the hands of the Texans. The Titans couldn’t have played much worse than they did last week however Jacksonville is trying to hold off both them and the Colts for the lead in the AFC South. The Jags will be without Mike Sims Walker however the Titans will be without both Randy Moss and Kenny Britt. Oh what’s that you say?? Randy Moss has been active the past few weeks. Ouch. Jacksonville extends their division lead

Jaguars 17

Titans 13

Oakland @ San Diego

San Diego – 13.5

Oakland headed into the bye week with all the hope and go fortune they could have asked for and since then things have been pretty much all downhill. The Chargers like usual are performing their normal November December undefeated streak. The Raiders were barely able to beat the Chargers at home when they were spotted a 12 point lead by the Chargers dreadful special teams and then needed a questionable fumble call to snatch victory from the clutches of defeat. I don’t see any miracle around the corner for the Raiders this week.

Chargers 31

Raiders 17

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Atlanta – 3

The Bucs almost put a kink into my declaration of them as a team that can only beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and no one else, but this week I’m going to do it myself. The Bucs are going to beat the Falcons this Sunday and I’ll tell you why. The Falcons are a mediocre road team at best and all of their home wins against good teams have had a very questionable tinge to them. On top of that you look at how closely the Bucs played them last time and they were literally a goal line stand away from beating the Falcons at home where they seem to be unbeatable. Well the Falcons aren’t unbeatable on the road and the Bucs will show it this week.

Bucs 23

Falcons 20

St. Louis @ Arizona

St. Louis – 3.5

The Rams got their first road win in over a year last week in Denver and they’re looking to follow it up with another road win this week except this time against a divisional opponent. Sam Bradford and crew are currently tied for first place in the division and will need all the division wins they can get in order to hold off the Seahawks. Arizona on the other hand just got blasted by the Chiefs and had their greatest press conference debacle since the Denny Green tirade so that leads me to pick the Rams in this one.

Rams 24

Cardinals 20

Dallas @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis – 5.5

I wrote last week about whether this is the end of the Colts as we know them. They’ve had a run that probably won’t ever be equaled in the salary cap era of football; they’ve been in the playoffs for 10 of the 13 years they’ve had Peyton Manning at QB including this year. So it could end up being 11 for 13 at the end of this year. However this game is pretty much  a must win for the Colts, they’re tied with the Jaguars for the division lead and with the top two teams in both the AFC North and East having better records than the Colts they’ll only make it in as a division winner. I don’t know whether they’ll do that but I think they’ll beat a rejuvenated Cowboys team who won’t be catching a team by surprise on the road like they did the Giants in their first week with Jason Garrett.

Colts 31

Cowboys 24

Carolina @ Seattle

Seattle –4.5

In a battle that nobody outside of Seattle and Panther fans care about the Seahawks will keep their post season hopes alive by beating the worst team in the league at home.

Seahawks 23

Panthers 13

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Baltimore – 3

My real reason for picking the Ravens

In what should hopefully be a Sunday night epic the Steelers go on the road to face a team they’ve already lost to at home this season.  However that Steelers team the Ravens faced in week 4 was without Ben Roethlisberger but the Ravens were without Ed Reed and while these aren’t equal they’re both incredibly important changes to both teams. Both of these players are banged up coming into this game but both will undoubtedly play as the games between these two teams always seem to come down to the wire either late in the 4^th quarter or overtime. I think Baltimore makes it 2-0 and makes their claim to a top seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

Ravens 20

Steelers 17

NY Jets @ New England

New England – 3.5

In the game of the week the Pats and Jets face off for the crown of best team in the AFC East and the AFC as a whole. Rex Ryan added a little fire to the flames with some jabs at Tom Brady in his press conference this week and we all know how much the Pats love to take that bulletin board material and make examples out of people. Rex Ryan is 2-1 in his short Jets head coaching career against the Patriots but the Jets lost a key piece to their defense in practice this week in Jim Leonhard who was one of their starting safety and more importantly the signal caller for their back 7. They will replace Leonhard with Eric Smith who is a solid player but lacks the range of Leonhard and also the ability to return punts where he was solid and somewhat explosive with 4 returns for over 20 yards. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception in 6 weeks and last week against the Lions he put up 341 yards and 4 touchdowns. The best possible news he could get is that the signal caller of the Jets defense will be out of this game and the rest of the year.

Patriots 27

Jets 20

week 11 preview: Saturday Night Fever

There's been a lot going on with Screen and Roll Out in the past week or so. We're back working full time so the posts will be just as frequent but not quite as timely. As such I couldn't update before that dreadful Thursday night game but I don't think I missed all that much. However Look out for a NBA commentary in the season after the 1st month or so which should be happening the next week. Now with that bit of book keeping out of the way lets get into the Week 11 picks. 

Baltimore @ Carolina

Baltimore -10.5

The early games this week aren't very inspiring to say the least. Baltimore @ Carolina should be an easy bounce back game for Baltimore after their disappointing loss to the Falcons last week. Carolina just got waxed by the Bucs and things don’t get any easier against this Ravens team. It looks like another loss in what will probably be John Fox’s last year in Carolina.

Ravens 27

Carolina 10

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati -6

I doubt they're still this happy

A game between two teams whose season’s are already over. Buffalo can try to hang their hat on the fact they’ve been a competitive team but at the end of the day they’re still 1-8 with 1 win over the Lions. The Bengals came into this year with high expectations after the playoffs last year and seemingly improving in the offseason. All those expectations have come crashing down with 6 consecutive losses after a 2-1 start to the season. At this point I can see this Cincinnati team beginning to implode especially with the personalities of Ocho and T.O. in the fold. Carson Palmer continues his spiral to irrelevance with a loss to the Bills at home.

Buffalo 17

Cincinnati 13

Detroit @ Dallas

Dallas -6.5

*Gasp* Could the Dallas Cowboys not be the worst team in the NFL anymore? After finally showing signs of life after ditching Wade Phillips with a win over the Giants on the road they might have finally escaped NFL purgatory. In their place might be the Detroit Lions, they seemed to be finally putting it together with young emerging pieces on both offense and defense however with the reinjury of Matthew Stafford their franchise QB seems to be of the glass variety. Not only is this his 3^rd major injury in two NFL seasons it’s his second separation of his shoulder which seems like a bad omen for the future especially at the QB position. I think both back up QB’s are mediocre guys surrounded by a solid nucleus of talent however I like the Dallas defense I saw last week against the Giants; since they were actually there against the Giants for the first time in weeks.

Dallas 24

Detroit 20

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville -1.5

The battle of the two surprisingly competitive teams, every year it seems Jacksonville ends up being 9-7 10-6ish and makes it into the playoffs to everyone’s chagrin. They’re a team that nobody really wants to watch yet they manage to be competitive more often than not.  Quick question, who has the second highest QB rating in the NFL? That’s right David Garrard. On the other side of the field you have Colt McCoy who is 2-2 as a starter with his only losses being to the Jets and the Steelers. He’s definitely more of a legit NFL quarterback than I thought he would be, but despite those two wins his game hasn’t traveled all that well.

Jaguars 17

Browns 13

Arizona @ Kansas City

Kansas City -8

Todd Haley might still be a little steamed about the blowout loss last week to the Broncos but he has to move on in a hurry because the Chiefs can’t afford to lose a game like this in a tight division race. This is a Haley’s first game against his previous team the Cardinals since he’s became a head coach. However this Cardinals team is without Kurt Warner or Matt Leinhart instead being lead by Derek Anderson. Arizona got handled fairly easily at home last week against the Seahawks, but I think they match up much better with the Chiefs than they did the Seahawks. The problem is the Cardinals passing game isn’t quite good enough to expose the Chiefs, especially on the road.

Chiefs 24

Cardinals 17

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Green Bay -3.5

This is what ESPN does to you when you're 3-6

Perhaps the final meeting between Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers, sadly it won’t be the big game we expected prior to the season as the Vikings are pretty much out of the playoff race at this point with a 3-6 record. The Packers had their bye last week and come into this game needing a win to keep pace with the still surprising Bears who pushed themselves to 7-3 with a win in an absolutely terrible Thursday night football game. I see Aaron Rodgers going 2-0 against Favre this year and officially putting the stake through the heart of the Vikings season and hopefully the tenure of Brad Childress.

Green Bay 23

Vikings 17

Houston @ NY Jets

NY Jets -7

Houston can’t stop anybody through the air; they're the worst pass defense in the NFL by almost 20 yards giving up over 300 per game. Combine that with a Jets defense that hasn’t given up more than 23 points all season and I don’t think Houston will be able to keep up with the amount of points their defense will give up. I think this is the week that Shonn Green overtakes L.T. as their starting running back and Dustin Keller gets back into his early season form.

Jets 27

Texans 17

Oakland @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -7

The Raiders are 4-1 in their past 5 games shaking off a 2-4 start to their year to get to 5-4 and into first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs loss last week. However in order to maintain that first place spot their going to have to win some tough games in their last 6 with games against the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers still remaining. The Steelers were seemingly exposed last week by the Patriots as a team that’s extremely vulnerable to the short passing game, and as a team whose offensive line is in shambles. While the Raiders lack the personnel to attack with the short passing game, their defense is 2^nd in the league in sacks which should bode well for them against a banged up Steelers O-line. Where this game will be decided is in the secondary of both teams, if Oakland can slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack with their pass rush and back 7 they’ll have a chance on the road, but if Mike Wallace gets behind them the Steelers will pull out a close one. Right now the Raiders give up the second fewest passing yards per game, and the second lowest completion percentage and I don’t see Big Ben getting enough time to get the deep ball off in this one. Raiders win a close one.

Raiders 17

Steelers 13

Washington @ Tennessee

Tennessee -7

After the debacle that was the Monday night game for Washington I don’t know what to say about this Redskins team. I do know what to say about Randy Moss however, I think he’s done. After watching him play Miami at half speed pretty much the entire way I think he’s finally decided to stop playing hard period. Even with no Laron Landry I still don’t think he makes the big plays we used to expect from him. Tennessee will win this game but it will be on the legs of Chris Johnson and by the other players in the passing game who get more room because of the space Randy Moss opens up.

Titans 20

Redskins 17

Seattle @ New Orleans

New Orleans -12

"Don't worry Reggie your game checks will be even bigger in the pros"

Seattle finally got back on the winning track after consecutive blow out losses handing the Cardinals a rare home loss. Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Williams are probably the best QB/WR tandem in the NFC West which says a lot about the state of the NFC West but also a lot about how far Mike Williams has come. However they still haven’t come far enough to beat the Saints at home coming off a bye week. Especially when they’ll get back arguably their second most important offensive player back this week in Reggie Bush.

Saints 27

Seahawks 17

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Tampa Bay -3.5

Troy Smith has reinvigorated the 49’ers offense with his ability to throw the deep ball combined with his general competence at the position. The 49’ers have put together back to back wins and if they were to win this week they’d be seemingly back in the NFC West race. Josh Freeman doesn't think thats going to happen. Tampa Bay is the classic team who beats the teams you expect them to beat and pretty much no one else, and at this point in the season I expect them to beat the 49'ers and I don't think they'll disappoint. 

Bucs 13

49'ers 10

Atlanta @ St. Louis

Atlanta -3.5

After a sterling performance on Thursday night against the Ravens at home the dirty birds hit the road to face the Rams. The Rams lost a disappointing game to the 49’ers in overtime but would be right back at .500 if they were to beat this Falcons team. Unfortunately for them it’s not going to happen, even though the Falcons are a better home team than road team, they’re only road losses were to the Eagles and the Steelers. The Falcons have been on fire offensively having scored over 30 points in their past 3 games, I think that streak ends but I think they keep on winning. 

Falcons 20

Rams 13

Indianapolis @ New England

New England -3.5

Outside of Michael Vick there aren’t any QB’s I love watching more than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Both of these guys are absolute masters of the craft and orchestrate their offense no matter who they have lining up next to them. Tom Brady took Jabar Gaffney and a number of castoffs to the AFC Championship a few years back while Peyton is turning Jacob Tamme and Mike Hart into household names this year. These guys show you how important the position of QB is in football, if you  have a great QB you can piecemeal a lot of other things around them and still be a good team. However I think that’s exactly the problem for the Colts, they’re just a good team. They’re too banged up on offense and their defense has a lot of trouble stopping any real potent scoring threat. I think Tom Brady puts a stop to the recent trend of Peyton dominating this matchup. Also as jacked up as Brady seemed last week I can’t imagine him being any less amped for this game.

Pats 31

Colts 27

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia -3

The Sunday Night platter this weekend is absolutely fantastic with this NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Vicks and the Giants. Michael Vick put up the performance of a lifetime last week while the Giants had a performance I’m sure they’d rather forget against the Cowboys. I honestly don’t know who’s going to stop Michael Vick at this point, part of me thinks he has to come up short sometime but I don’t think it will be this week at home against a Giants defense that was exposed by Jon Kitna. The Michael Vick experience continues its rapid ascension towards the MVP summit.

Eagles 27

Giants 20

Denver @ San Diego

San Diego -10

Denver not only upset Kansas City on Sunday they Oakland Raider’d them going off for some 49 points getting redemption on the wrong team for their home blow out a few weeks ago. They also created a little more AFC West rivalry with the Chiefs by not easing up at all in the 4^th and being a little too jovial on the sidelines for the taste of Todd Haley. San Diego seems to be doing what they do every year have everyone write them off before they get on a 6 or 7 game winning streak that puts them right back in the playoffs and right back on everyone’s list of teams they don’t want to play. I hate to say it but I see it happening again this year. In a QB dual between Phillip Rivers and Kyle Orton I take Phillip Rivers and I don’t even think about it.

Chargers 31

Broncos 24