Super Bowl XLV Preview

When the Super Bowl kicks off later today it will be a battle between two of the most storied franchises in NFL History. Two well balanced teams that can hurt you on both offense and defense. These teams are eerily similar, both run aggressive 3-4 defenses predicated on zone blitz schemes, both rely on mobile quarterbacks to make plays for them when things break down, and both have a dominant outside linebacker and secondary player that could change the outcome of the game on Sunday. Screen and Roll Out is going to break the game down on each side of the ball for the respective teams before giving our prediction.

When the Packers have the ball

The Packers offense revolves around Aaron Rodgers just as much as the Colts do around Peyton Manning or the Patriots do around Tom Brady. During this year’s season and playoffs he’s elevated himself into the discussion for best quarterback in the league. Aaron Rodgers has all the tools you look for in an elite quarterback. Arm Strength, accuracy, leadership, the ability to compete under pressure, and the ability to escape the pocket and create on the run as well. An article came out a few days ago about a conversation he had with Steve Young about what it takes to follow up a legend and I think that Aaron Rodgers compares favorably to Steve Young except that he’s come into his own a good deal earlier than Young did. The Packers are a pass first team; however they’ve been able to move the football on the ground in all 3 playoff games they’ve had and its all largely due to the ability of James Starks whose been a bit of a late season revelation for these Green Bay Packers. In the 3 postseason games he’s posted yardage total of 263 which doesn’t seem that impressive until you see that their leading rusher averaged 43 yards per game during the season. Watching this NFL playbook video should give you a good idea of the kind of talent the Packers have when it comes to pass protection. Bryan Beluga has come in at right tackle and done a fine job holding the edge and replacing 13 year stalwart Mark Tauscher. The Packers probably utilize the most talented group of wide receivers in the NFL going 4 deep at wide out with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. All 4 have the ability to make big plays and all of them have the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Greg Jennings is the leader of this group and somehow still remains an underrated player at the wide receiver position, not only does he provide a huge big play threat like a Mike Wallace for the Steelers but he also provides reliability on pretty much every route that the Packers like to run in their route tree. He’s still considered undersized at 5’11 but over the past 3 years he’s averaged over 1200 yards a season at 16 yards a catch. On the other side of Jennings is Donald Driver who had his consecutive 1,000 yard receiving seasons streak stopped at 6 this year but he’s still in absolutely fantastic shape, however he’s the 2^nd receiver in name only at this point as bath James Jones and Jordy Nelson have passed him in production. One significant loss on the offensive side of the ball the Packers have suffered is the loss of their pro bowl tight end Jermichael Finely, however Andrew Quarless has come in and provided another big athletic body and while not as talented as Finley as a receiver he’s quite the blocker in the backfield and provides an adequate safety valve for Rodgers when he’s under pressure.

When the Steelers have the ball

Visions like this are dancing in Steelers Fans heads as we speak

The Steelers have a great quarterback themselves in Ben Roethlisberger however they employ a more balanced attack where they complement their deep passing attack with the running of Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers offensive line is about as decimated as you’ll see in the super bowl with both of their starting tackles on injured reserve their starting center unlikely play and an undrafted rookie starting at right guard this is about as patchwork as it gets. However with a quarterback like Big Ben behind center they can count on him to break so many tackles per game and make so many plays when their protection breaks down that it hasn’t hurt the Steelers as much as it would hurt a normal team.  The Steelers are very reminiscent of their super bowl teams of 70’s built around a strong armed quarterback who goes deep early and often and a talented running back who get the tough yards between the tackles but also has the speed to break it outside. Speaking of outside the Steelers have one of the fastest players in the NFL on the outside in Mike Wallace who was second in the NFL in yards per catch at an absolutely insane 21yards per grab. The difference between the explosive Mike Wallace of last year and this years version is his ability to expand upon his big play ability to create space for other players as well as capitalize on that space himself and make catches on routes underneath the coverage. The steady veteran of this receiving corps is still Hines Ward former Super Bowl MVP and renown as the dirtiest wide receiver in football. Whether you think he's a dirty player or not theres no question that Ward is one of the toughest receivers in football and someone I would absolutely trust to come down with a catch in a tough situation. 

When the Steelers are on defense

The Steelers were one of the best defenses in the league according to pretty much any metric you threw at them. They were # 2 in yardage allowed behind the Chargers by only 5 yards per game.  They were 5^th in interceptions, 1^st in sacks, and #1 in rush defense by almost 30 yards per game. Their 3-4 defense stout up front with perennial pro bowler Casey Hampton at the nose flanking him are the fantastic beard of Brett Keisel and the young emerging Ziggy Hood of Missouri.  However where the Pittsburgh Steelers lap the rest of the NFL is in their linebacking corps.  Its home to pro bowlers at 3 of the 4 positions, all pros at 3 of the 4 positions, and it has the defensive player of the year of 2009. It’s hard to say where this linebacking corps start, most would say it’s with James Harrison and I would find it hard to disagree, but I honestly think the key to this 3-4 defense resides on the other side in LaMarr Woodley. Over the past 3 years he’s racked up 35 sacks which would put him 1 behind James Harrison but while James Harrison is coming into the downside of his career at 32 Woodley is entering his at the age of 26. Regardless of whom you prefer when you can get an average of 24 sacks from your outside linebackers every year you’ll be in good shape.  The Steelers secondary revolves around 2010 defensive player of the year Troy Polamalu. He's an absolute beast in the box and has the coverage range to be pretty much anywhere on the field prior to the snap and still not have an idea of where his responsibility lies. In only 14 games this year he had 7 interceptions and numerous big plays with tackles on the goal line and in the backfield, watching Polamalu play you can see that his instincts are some of the best in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball and its these same instincts he'll need to quickly diagnose the intentions of Aaron Rodgers this Sunday. 

When the Packers are on defense

B.J. Raji has a belt of his own

The Packers are built like the Steelers in that they run a 3-4 defense that emphasizes getting pressure through a zone blitz scheme, where the two teams differ is how they get their pressure. The Packers don’t have the talent that the Steelers do in their linebacking corps however they have a much better secondary and defensive line and they use that to their advantage in their schemes. The Packers utilize Charles Woodson in a similar fashion to the way the Steelers use Troy Polamalu moving him all over the field sometimes as a blitzer, sometimes as a nickel back, sometimes in bump and run on the outside, and other times in a short zone assignment. Any offense that plays the Packers needs to be aware of where he is at all times. The story of the Green Bay secondary is no longer Charles Woodson however its now the play of Tramon Williams and Sam Shields how are the primary cover corners of this team and form arguably the best cover corner tandem in the league. Williams has elevated himself into the shutdown corner echelon while Sam Williams has become a fantastic playmaker in his own right with two huge interceptions on the road against Chicago in the NFC Championship. On their defensive line the Packers rely on two guys to clog the middle and create pressure those two guys are B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins. Both can switch between the nose and either end position creating a great deal of flexibility along the defensive line and both players have the ability to drop into coverage occasionally in zone dog schemes as demonstrated by Raji in the NFC championship game. The undoubted star of this team however lies in the linebacking corps. Clay Matthews has become one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL almost overnight, coached by one of the great pass rushers in Steelers history in Kevin Greene he’s made his way  from walk on at USC to first round pick to being two votes shy of winning this year’s defensive player of the year. If the Steelers want to have a chance to win this game they can’t let Matthews dominate the game and constantly keep Big Ben on the run. 

Prediction

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that this will be a close game, and looking at the last time these teams played could give use some details into what this game could look like. The last time these teams played was December of 2009 and the Steelers won in a 37-36 shootout that wasn't decided until the last play of the game where Ben Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Mike Wallace. Big Ben went for over 500 yards and Aaron Rodgers responded with 380 of his own but it wouldn't be enough as the Steelers managed to eke out a win at home. A year later the Steelers have Troy Polamalu while the Packers have an Aaron Rodgers that has seemingly become the best QB in the NFL. While I think Super Bowl experience matters and the Steelers have it in spades I think the Jets gave an absolute blue print to beating the Steelers in that second half, if you're physical with their wide receivers their offensive line can't hold up and Big Ben will try to force things. The Packers defense has capitalized every time someone has forced a throw in these playoffs and I think someone in their secondary makes another huge play in the super bowl that will change the momentum of this game. Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP because the QB almost always does but the Green Bay secondary will be the stars in this super bowl.

Packers 31

Steelers 27

NFL Conference Championship Game live blog.

NFL Divisional Round Saturday Live Blog.

Wild Card Weekend Part 2.

To put it quite simply I don't think I could have been any more wrong on the two predictions I made about Saturdays games. The Seahawks pulled one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history on the arm of a rejuvenated Matt Hasselbeck and based on one of the best runs I've probably ever seen. The Saints came into the game with two running backs left and by the 4th quarter they were down to a guy they signed earlier this week off the street. Frankly the injuries to their running backs made their offense entirely too one dimensional for anyone to carry even if that someone is as good as Drew Brees. The real disappointment if your the Saints is your defense, you allow 13 touchdown passes all season and then let Matt Hasselbeck get 4 in one game. I don't think the Saints need a complete overhaul next year they're a team they just needs some minor retooling and better health next year. Earlier today I compared this Seahawks team to the 2009 Cardinals team that no one expected to make it past the wild card round, and maybe.......just maybe that comparison could be a little more apt than I first thought.

The Colts Jets game played out more or less how a lot of people thought. The Colts didn't come into that game huge favorites and most people expected a defensive struggle between two well matched teams. Peyton Manning reallly didn't get anything going for almost the entirety of the game outside of a 57 yard pass to Pierre Garcon there were no explosive plays and the Jets did a good job of keeping Peyton bottled up the entire game. All of Rex Ryans talk made me think he'd have an emotional game plan and come out aggressive but instead he did the smart thing and made the Colts run the football, he played 1 and 2 defensive lineman looks and continually dared Peyton to check down to the run. More often than not he wont those match ups, the Colts don't have the runners in the backfield nor the lineman up front to make people pay for having 6 and 7 defensive backs. Its time like these it really hurts to remind Colts fans they could have had Maurice Jones Drew a couple of years ago instead of perennially injured and ineffective Joseph Addai. I don't know what happens with the Colts next year but if anyone thinks theres a chance Peyton Manning leaves I have some magic beans I'd like to sell them.

Baltimore @ Kansas City

Baltimore - 3

This game sort of reminds me of the Saints Seahawks game in that you have a team everyone thinks is coming into the playoffs with an air of not belonging on the field with the team they're playing. The Chiefs played 3 above  .500 teams all year and managed to only beat one of them shocking the Chargers in their opening game. The Ravens on the other hand have played 7 games against above .500 opponents going 4-3 but losing those 3 games by a combined 11 points. The Chiefs lost their two games by a combined 41 points, which would indicate they feasted on the poor teams that littered their schedule and couldn't compete with any of the good teams. Whats even more troubling is that in the last week of the season with plenty to play for and at home they got absolutely blasted by the Raiders who were merely playing for pride at that point. Their vaunted rushing attack was shut down and the Matt Cassel who had only thrown 2 interceptions over the seasons last 11 games unraveled to throw 2 interceptions in a sack filled disaster. I think the Ravens look at the game tape and think that their defensive line can do the exact same thing to the Chiefs. Plus if Matt Cassel can't look off Michael Huff what chance does he have looking off Ed Reed who has an incredible 8 interceptions in only 10 games played this year. On the offensive side of the ball I think the Ravens will give the Chiefs a bit of their own medicine and grind them down with a combination of Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and Leron McClain. Look for a couple of deep connections to Anquan Boldin in a Ravens road win.

Ravens 23


Chiefs 13


Green Bay @ Philadelphia


Philadelphia - 3

Fun Fact: Aaron Rodgers took the title belt dance from Freddie Mitchel

This is a match up of my two favorite teams still left in the tournament and I'm sad that at the end of this game I'll only have one of them left to root for. I was hoping for these two teams to meet up in the NFC Championship game but hopefully we'll all be treated to an offensive shootout this Sunday. I honestly don't know what to make of the Packers offensively they seem dominant one week to only fluster the next week with their lack of punch. One thing I am certain about is their defense which has rounded into shape the past few weeks to become one of the most feared in the playoffs. They have three of the best defensive players on any team in the NFL with Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, and the untouted B.J. Raji who is having an absolutely stellar season at the nose in their 3-4 defense. When these two teams played earlier in the year Clay Matthews was a man possessed as he gained 3 sacks and harassed Michael Vick all day and despite that when Vick was asked about that game he thinks the Eagles would have won had he started. Michael Vick has been the story for much of this NFL season but  in an incredibly important home game against a Vikings team with nothing to play for they were toothless on both offense and defense picked apart by rookie Joe Webb. If the Eagles defense had this much trouble containing Joe Webb how can they hope to stop Aaron Rodgers. Honestly I don't think they do, but I just don't think Michael Vick will lose a home playoff game. This is the same man who went into Lambeau Field and go the first win there in playoff history and I think he continues to haunt the dreams of Packers this playoffs.

Eagles 31


Packers 27

Saturday Playoff Extravaganza

Week 17 Predictions heads up: 7-9

Week 17 Predictions against the Spread: 5-11

Record for the season: 125-98

I'm sure hell is awfully cold right now as it's frozen over and a team under .500 has made the NFL playoffs. The Seahawks played a game against the Rams that seemed like two teams that were both struggling to stay above water. Apparently the team with their head below water will be hosting a game against the NFL champs who's record is 5 games better than them.  I think this will definitely put a whole lot of pressure on the NFL competition committee to examine the way playoff seeding works and perhaps make some long overdue changes. On Saturday we have the Saints heading into Seattle to face the 7-9 Seahawks and then Saturday night we have the rematch of last years AFC Championship game with the Jets heading into the dome to play the Colts. I honestly don't think either of these games will be all that close but we'll get into that later in this piece.This morning we'll go into the match ups of the Saturday Games and tonight we'll go through a recap of the action and then talk about the two games on the slate for Sunday.


New York @ Indianapolis


Indianapolis - 2

Theres been a lot of talk from Rex Ryan about this game. More or less that its become a personal thing between the Jets and Peyton Manning, he's the proverbial mongoose to the Jets snake. The Jets are a team that needs to blitz in order to bring pressure and that normally plays right into the hands of Peyton Manning, but at the same time they're  a 3-4 team which normally gives him trouble. Its a bit of a quandary but when you look at Peyton's  record against Rex Ryan defenses you see that he seems to have a mastery over them. Last year the Colts were down 13-17 going into the second half before the Colts rung up 17 consecutive points eventually beating the Jets 30-17 to get to the Super Bowl. Peyton's record against Ryan defenses is 5-1 with Peyton having 12 touchdown passes to go with only 2 interceptions. In order for the Jets to win this game they'll have to take some keys from the Patriots and Chargers wins against the Colts earlier this year. In both games the those teams didn't reveal their looks until right before the snap and were able to create pressure with 4 and 5 man pressure packages. This lead to something we haven't seen from Peyton in a few years and thats multiple turnovers. If the Jets are able to do that they're offense should be able to score a few requisite field goals and perhaps a touchdown or two which would allow them to win a relatively low scoring game. However listening to Rex Ryan talk all week, I doubt he'll bring those 4 and 5 man pressures, when somebody takes things this personally with a player who clearly isn't interested in any sort of rivalry with you things tend to turn out badly. I think Ryan's aggression will get the best of him and we can add another win to the Colts and Peyton's record against the Rex Ryan defenses and send the Jets home back to NYC.

Colts 31


Jets 17


New Orleans @ Seattle


New Orleans - 10

I think he'd just take a win this Saturday

This much can be said of Pete Carroll, he lead the Seahawks to the playoffs despite the fact they only have a 7-9 record. If he were to beat the Saints at home no one would remember the 7-9 record just like no one remembers the fact that the 2009 Cardinals who were a few plays away from winning a Super bowl came into the playoffs 8-8. In no way am I comparing those two teams just stating how short our memories are when teams win when it counts. The weather news this morning is that its going to be quite a rainy game today at Qwest field which I would think would be to the advantage of the Seahawks except for the fact that neither team can run the football effectively. Despite having one of the worst rushing offenses in the entire league the Seahawks managed to rush for 140 yards at 4 yards a carry last week and if they can emulate that performance this week against the Saints they'll have a chance to win this game. The Saints lost two of their best running backs in Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory last week for the rest of year leaving them with Julius Jones and Reggie Bush to carry the load for them in the backfield, they're both best suited as change of pace backs but the Saints no longer have that luxury. Luckily for them they won't need it, watching the Seahawks vs Rams game last week you could see that the Rams were playing not to make any mistakes with a plethora of short throws for Sam Bradford only taking 2 or 3 deep shots and both of those shots could have been huge gains if not for receiver drops. The Saints know the Seahawks are vulnerable to the deep pass and that's something their offense specializes in. Look for Drew Brees to forget about the running game in rainy Qwest field and go deep a number of times to Devry Henderson, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem as the Saints do what we all expect them to do and beat the Seahawks.

Saints 33


Seahawks 20