Super Bowl XLV Preview

When the Super Bowl kicks off later today it will be a battle between two of the most storied franchises in NFL History. Two well balanced teams that can hurt you on both offense and defense. These teams are eerily similar, both run aggressive 3-4 defenses predicated on zone blitz schemes, both rely on mobile quarterbacks to make plays for them when things break down, and both have a dominant outside linebacker and secondary player that could change the outcome of the game on Sunday. Screen and Roll Out is going to break the game down on each side of the ball for the respective teams before giving our prediction.

When the Packers have the ball

The Packers offense revolves around Aaron Rodgers just as much as the Colts do around Peyton Manning or the Patriots do around Tom Brady. During this year’s season and playoffs he’s elevated himself into the discussion for best quarterback in the league. Aaron Rodgers has all the tools you look for in an elite quarterback. Arm Strength, accuracy, leadership, the ability to compete under pressure, and the ability to escape the pocket and create on the run as well. An article came out a few days ago about a conversation he had with Steve Young about what it takes to follow up a legend and I think that Aaron Rodgers compares favorably to Steve Young except that he’s come into his own a good deal earlier than Young did. The Packers are a pass first team; however they’ve been able to move the football on the ground in all 3 playoff games they’ve had and its all largely due to the ability of James Starks whose been a bit of a late season revelation for these Green Bay Packers. In the 3 postseason games he’s posted yardage total of 263 which doesn’t seem that impressive until you see that their leading rusher averaged 43 yards per game during the season. Watching this NFL playbook video should give you a good idea of the kind of talent the Packers have when it comes to pass protection. Bryan Beluga has come in at right tackle and done a fine job holding the edge and replacing 13 year stalwart Mark Tauscher. The Packers probably utilize the most talented group of wide receivers in the NFL going 4 deep at wide out with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones. All 4 have the ability to make big plays and all of them have the trust of Aaron Rodgers. Greg Jennings is the leader of this group and somehow still remains an underrated player at the wide receiver position, not only does he provide a huge big play threat like a Mike Wallace for the Steelers but he also provides reliability on pretty much every route that the Packers like to run in their route tree. He’s still considered undersized at 5’11 but over the past 3 years he’s averaged over 1200 yards a season at 16 yards a catch. On the other side of Jennings is Donald Driver who had his consecutive 1,000 yard receiving seasons streak stopped at 6 this year but he’s still in absolutely fantastic shape, however he’s the 2^nd receiver in name only at this point as bath James Jones and Jordy Nelson have passed him in production. One significant loss on the offensive side of the ball the Packers have suffered is the loss of their pro bowl tight end Jermichael Finely, however Andrew Quarless has come in and provided another big athletic body and while not as talented as Finley as a receiver he’s quite the blocker in the backfield and provides an adequate safety valve for Rodgers when he’s under pressure.

When the Steelers have the ball

Visions like this are dancing in Steelers Fans heads as we speak

The Steelers have a great quarterback themselves in Ben Roethlisberger however they employ a more balanced attack where they complement their deep passing attack with the running of Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers offensive line is about as decimated as you’ll see in the super bowl with both of their starting tackles on injured reserve their starting center unlikely play and an undrafted rookie starting at right guard this is about as patchwork as it gets. However with a quarterback like Big Ben behind center they can count on him to break so many tackles per game and make so many plays when their protection breaks down that it hasn’t hurt the Steelers as much as it would hurt a normal team.  The Steelers are very reminiscent of their super bowl teams of 70’s built around a strong armed quarterback who goes deep early and often and a talented running back who get the tough yards between the tackles but also has the speed to break it outside. Speaking of outside the Steelers have one of the fastest players in the NFL on the outside in Mike Wallace who was second in the NFL in yards per catch at an absolutely insane 21yards per grab. The difference between the explosive Mike Wallace of last year and this years version is his ability to expand upon his big play ability to create space for other players as well as capitalize on that space himself and make catches on routes underneath the coverage. The steady veteran of this receiving corps is still Hines Ward former Super Bowl MVP and renown as the dirtiest wide receiver in football. Whether you think he's a dirty player or not theres no question that Ward is one of the toughest receivers in football and someone I would absolutely trust to come down with a catch in a tough situation. 

When the Steelers are on defense

The Steelers were one of the best defenses in the league according to pretty much any metric you threw at them. They were # 2 in yardage allowed behind the Chargers by only 5 yards per game.  They were 5^th in interceptions, 1^st in sacks, and #1 in rush defense by almost 30 yards per game. Their 3-4 defense stout up front with perennial pro bowler Casey Hampton at the nose flanking him are the fantastic beard of Brett Keisel and the young emerging Ziggy Hood of Missouri.  However where the Pittsburgh Steelers lap the rest of the NFL is in their linebacking corps.  Its home to pro bowlers at 3 of the 4 positions, all pros at 3 of the 4 positions, and it has the defensive player of the year of 2009. It’s hard to say where this linebacking corps start, most would say it’s with James Harrison and I would find it hard to disagree, but I honestly think the key to this 3-4 defense resides on the other side in LaMarr Woodley. Over the past 3 years he’s racked up 35 sacks which would put him 1 behind James Harrison but while James Harrison is coming into the downside of his career at 32 Woodley is entering his at the age of 26. Regardless of whom you prefer when you can get an average of 24 sacks from your outside linebackers every year you’ll be in good shape.  The Steelers secondary revolves around 2010 defensive player of the year Troy Polamalu. He's an absolute beast in the box and has the coverage range to be pretty much anywhere on the field prior to the snap and still not have an idea of where his responsibility lies. In only 14 games this year he had 7 interceptions and numerous big plays with tackles on the goal line and in the backfield, watching Polamalu play you can see that his instincts are some of the best in the NFL on the defensive side of the ball and its these same instincts he'll need to quickly diagnose the intentions of Aaron Rodgers this Sunday. 

When the Packers are on defense

B.J. Raji has a belt of his own

The Packers are built like the Steelers in that they run a 3-4 defense that emphasizes getting pressure through a zone blitz scheme, where the two teams differ is how they get their pressure. The Packers don’t have the talent that the Steelers do in their linebacking corps however they have a much better secondary and defensive line and they use that to their advantage in their schemes. The Packers utilize Charles Woodson in a similar fashion to the way the Steelers use Troy Polamalu moving him all over the field sometimes as a blitzer, sometimes as a nickel back, sometimes in bump and run on the outside, and other times in a short zone assignment. Any offense that plays the Packers needs to be aware of where he is at all times. The story of the Green Bay secondary is no longer Charles Woodson however its now the play of Tramon Williams and Sam Shields how are the primary cover corners of this team and form arguably the best cover corner tandem in the league. Williams has elevated himself into the shutdown corner echelon while Sam Williams has become a fantastic playmaker in his own right with two huge interceptions on the road against Chicago in the NFC Championship. On their defensive line the Packers rely on two guys to clog the middle and create pressure those two guys are B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins. Both can switch between the nose and either end position creating a great deal of flexibility along the defensive line and both players have the ability to drop into coverage occasionally in zone dog schemes as demonstrated by Raji in the NFC championship game. The undoubted star of this team however lies in the linebacking corps. Clay Matthews has become one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL almost overnight, coached by one of the great pass rushers in Steelers history in Kevin Greene he’s made his way  from walk on at USC to first round pick to being two votes shy of winning this year’s defensive player of the year. If the Steelers want to have a chance to win this game they can’t let Matthews dominate the game and constantly keep Big Ben on the run. 

Prediction

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that this will be a close game, and looking at the last time these teams played could give use some details into what this game could look like. The last time these teams played was December of 2009 and the Steelers won in a 37-36 shootout that wasn't decided until the last play of the game where Ben Roethlisberger threw a touchdown pass to Mike Wallace. Big Ben went for over 500 yards and Aaron Rodgers responded with 380 of his own but it wouldn't be enough as the Steelers managed to eke out a win at home. A year later the Steelers have Troy Polamalu while the Packers have an Aaron Rodgers that has seemingly become the best QB in the NFL. While I think Super Bowl experience matters and the Steelers have it in spades I think the Jets gave an absolute blue print to beating the Steelers in that second half, if you're physical with their wide receivers their offensive line can't hold up and Big Ben will try to force things. The Packers defense has capitalized every time someone has forced a throw in these playoffs and I think someone in their secondary makes another huge play in the super bowl that will change the momentum of this game. Aaron Rodgers will win the MVP because the QB almost always does but the Green Bay secondary will be the stars in this super bowl.

Packers 31

Steelers 27

NFL Conference Championship Game live blog.

Saturday Night Week 13 Preview

New Orleans @ Cincinnati

New Orleans – 7

Early in the year I wasn’t a believer in the Saints, I saw the way their offense looked and I saw the points they put up and they didn’t have any resemblance to the Super Bowl champs of last year. However the Saints have put up 30 points or more in their past 3 games during a 4 game winning streak. The Bengals on the other hand extended their losing steak to 8 games with a loss to the Jets. They always seem to be competitive in games before things eventually fall apart for them. I think they fall apart again as the Saints continue their streak of 30+ point games. 

Saints 34

Bengals 24

Chicago @ Detroit

Chicago – 5

I told you last week that I was a believer in Chicago so I’m going with them in this game over the Lions. Detroit has nothing to play for except spoiler while the Bears are coming off probably their biggest win of the season beating a tough Eagles team at home.  Wait a second…….who does Chicago play next week? Oh will you look at that they play the Patriots next week, this has the classic makings of a trap game, so I’ll just say this Chicago will probably win this game but they’ll have to play all 60 minutes to do so.

Chicago 24

Detroit 23

San Francisco @ Green Bay

Green Bay – 9.5

Green Bay seems to be a one man team at this point with their only reliable source of any offense being Aaron Rodgers. Luckily for them that one man is good enough to beat the 49’ers while they’re at home. They had better use this game to find some other people to get Rodgers some help on offense or they might not make it into the playoffs.

Packers 27

49’ers 20

Denver @ Kansas City

Kansas City – 10

Kansas City showed they were legit by going on the road in one of the toughest environments in the NFL and absolutely handing it to the Seahawks. The Broncos showed who they were by losing at home to St. Louis in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have you believe. Chiefs in a big way.

Chiefs 31

Broncos 17

Cleveland @ Miami

Miami – 5

Note enough money on earth for me to block this guy

Miami was finally able to run the football for one last week as they ran over the Raiders to the tune of almost 200 total rushing yards with their combo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. The question is whether that was a one week aberration or a sign of things to come as they close out the season. Cleveland's rush defense is ranked 20th in the league so they're nothing to write home about however I think a guy like Shaun Rogers can make all the difference to a team that isn't a equipped to handle him and the Dolphins lack the size up front to handle him. Combine that with another installment of the Peyton Hillis show and I think the Browns go into Miami and pretty much end the Dolphins season.

Browns 19

Dolphins 17

Buffalo @ Minnesota

Minnesota – 5

With Adrian Peterson being a game time decision this game comes to down to whether you trust Brett Favre with possibly no Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin to be able to beat the Bills at home. My answer: Just barely.

Vikings 27

Bills 24

Washington @ N.Y. Giants

New York – 7.5

New York beat a tough Jags team at home in a thriller last week now they play one of those games they can’t afford to lose if they want to make it into the playoffs. The Redskins are a team who has beaten a few listless opponents and not much else but division games can bring out the best in NFC east teams.  However I doubt it'll bring out enough to beat a Giants team fighting for their playoff lives.

Giant 17

Redskins 9

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Tennessee – 3.5

Farewell Rusty Smith we hardly knew ye

Sadly it seems as though the Rusty Smith era has come to an end in Tennessee after a 20-0 drubbing at the hands of the Texans. The Titans couldn’t have played much worse than they did last week however Jacksonville is trying to hold off both them and the Colts for the lead in the AFC South. The Jags will be without Mike Sims Walker however the Titans will be without both Randy Moss and Kenny Britt. Oh what’s that you say?? Randy Moss has been active the past few weeks. Ouch. Jacksonville extends their division lead

Jaguars 17

Titans 13

Oakland @ San Diego

San Diego – 13.5

Oakland headed into the bye week with all the hope and go fortune they could have asked for and since then things have been pretty much all downhill. The Chargers like usual are performing their normal November December undefeated streak. The Raiders were barely able to beat the Chargers at home when they were spotted a 12 point lead by the Chargers dreadful special teams and then needed a questionable fumble call to snatch victory from the clutches of defeat. I don’t see any miracle around the corner for the Raiders this week.

Chargers 31

Raiders 17

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Atlanta – 3

The Bucs almost put a kink into my declaration of them as a team that can only beat the teams they’re supposed to beat and no one else, but this week I’m going to do it myself. The Bucs are going to beat the Falcons this Sunday and I’ll tell you why. The Falcons are a mediocre road team at best and all of their home wins against good teams have had a very questionable tinge to them. On top of that you look at how closely the Bucs played them last time and they were literally a goal line stand away from beating the Falcons at home where they seem to be unbeatable. Well the Falcons aren’t unbeatable on the road and the Bucs will show it this week.

Bucs 23

Falcons 20

St. Louis @ Arizona

St. Louis – 3.5

The Rams got their first road win in over a year last week in Denver and they’re looking to follow it up with another road win this week except this time against a divisional opponent. Sam Bradford and crew are currently tied for first place in the division and will need all the division wins they can get in order to hold off the Seahawks. Arizona on the other hand just got blasted by the Chiefs and had their greatest press conference debacle since the Denny Green tirade so that leads me to pick the Rams in this one.

Rams 24

Cardinals 20

Dallas @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis – 5.5

I wrote last week about whether this is the end of the Colts as we know them. They’ve had a run that probably won’t ever be equaled in the salary cap era of football; they’ve been in the playoffs for 10 of the 13 years they’ve had Peyton Manning at QB including this year. So it could end up being 11 for 13 at the end of this year. However this game is pretty much  a must win for the Colts, they’re tied with the Jaguars for the division lead and with the top two teams in both the AFC North and East having better records than the Colts they’ll only make it in as a division winner. I don’t know whether they’ll do that but I think they’ll beat a rejuvenated Cowboys team who won’t be catching a team by surprise on the road like they did the Giants in their first week with Jason Garrett.

Colts 31

Cowboys 24

Carolina @ Seattle

Seattle –4.5

In a battle that nobody outside of Seattle and Panther fans care about the Seahawks will keep their post season hopes alive by beating the worst team in the league at home.

Seahawks 23

Panthers 13

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Baltimore – 3

My real reason for picking the Ravens

In what should hopefully be a Sunday night epic the Steelers go on the road to face a team they’ve already lost to at home this season.  However that Steelers team the Ravens faced in week 4 was without Ben Roethlisberger but the Ravens were without Ed Reed and while these aren’t equal they’re both incredibly important changes to both teams. Both of these players are banged up coming into this game but both will undoubtedly play as the games between these two teams always seem to come down to the wire either late in the 4^th quarter or overtime. I think Baltimore makes it 2-0 and makes their claim to a top seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

Ravens 20

Steelers 17

NY Jets @ New England

New England – 3.5

In the game of the week the Pats and Jets face off for the crown of best team in the AFC East and the AFC as a whole. Rex Ryan added a little fire to the flames with some jabs at Tom Brady in his press conference this week and we all know how much the Pats love to take that bulletin board material and make examples out of people. Rex Ryan is 2-1 in his short Jets head coaching career against the Patriots but the Jets lost a key piece to their defense in practice this week in Jim Leonhard who was one of their starting safety and more importantly the signal caller for their back 7. They will replace Leonhard with Eric Smith who is a solid player but lacks the range of Leonhard and also the ability to return punts where he was solid and somewhat explosive with 4 returns for over 20 yards. Tom Brady hasn’t thrown an interception in 6 weeks and last week against the Lions he put up 341 yards and 4 touchdowns. The best possible news he could get is that the signal caller of the Jets defense will be out of this game and the rest of the year.

Patriots 27

Jets 20

week 11 preview: Saturday Night Fever

There's been a lot going on with Screen and Roll Out in the past week or so. We're back working full time so the posts will be just as frequent but not quite as timely. As such I couldn't update before that dreadful Thursday night game but I don't think I missed all that much. However Look out for a NBA commentary in the season after the 1st month or so which should be happening the next week. Now with that bit of book keeping out of the way lets get into the Week 11 picks. 

Baltimore @ Carolina

Baltimore -10.5

The early games this week aren't very inspiring to say the least. Baltimore @ Carolina should be an easy bounce back game for Baltimore after their disappointing loss to the Falcons last week. Carolina just got waxed by the Bucs and things don’t get any easier against this Ravens team. It looks like another loss in what will probably be John Fox’s last year in Carolina.

Ravens 27

Carolina 10

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati -6

I doubt they're still this happy

A game between two teams whose season’s are already over. Buffalo can try to hang their hat on the fact they’ve been a competitive team but at the end of the day they’re still 1-8 with 1 win over the Lions. The Bengals came into this year with high expectations after the playoffs last year and seemingly improving in the offseason. All those expectations have come crashing down with 6 consecutive losses after a 2-1 start to the season. At this point I can see this Cincinnati team beginning to implode especially with the personalities of Ocho and T.O. in the fold. Carson Palmer continues his spiral to irrelevance with a loss to the Bills at home.

Buffalo 17

Cincinnati 13

Detroit @ Dallas

Dallas -6.5

*Gasp* Could the Dallas Cowboys not be the worst team in the NFL anymore? After finally showing signs of life after ditching Wade Phillips with a win over the Giants on the road they might have finally escaped NFL purgatory. In their place might be the Detroit Lions, they seemed to be finally putting it together with young emerging pieces on both offense and defense however with the reinjury of Matthew Stafford their franchise QB seems to be of the glass variety. Not only is this his 3^rd major injury in two NFL seasons it’s his second separation of his shoulder which seems like a bad omen for the future especially at the QB position. I think both back up QB’s are mediocre guys surrounded by a solid nucleus of talent however I like the Dallas defense I saw last week against the Giants; since they were actually there against the Giants for the first time in weeks.

Dallas 24

Detroit 20

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville -1.5

The battle of the two surprisingly competitive teams, every year it seems Jacksonville ends up being 9-7 10-6ish and makes it into the playoffs to everyone’s chagrin. They’re a team that nobody really wants to watch yet they manage to be competitive more often than not.  Quick question, who has the second highest QB rating in the NFL? That’s right David Garrard. On the other side of the field you have Colt McCoy who is 2-2 as a starter with his only losses being to the Jets and the Steelers. He’s definitely more of a legit NFL quarterback than I thought he would be, but despite those two wins his game hasn’t traveled all that well.

Jaguars 17

Browns 13

Arizona @ Kansas City

Kansas City -8

Todd Haley might still be a little steamed about the blowout loss last week to the Broncos but he has to move on in a hurry because the Chiefs can’t afford to lose a game like this in a tight division race. This is a Haley’s first game against his previous team the Cardinals since he’s became a head coach. However this Cardinals team is without Kurt Warner or Matt Leinhart instead being lead by Derek Anderson. Arizona got handled fairly easily at home last week against the Seahawks, but I think they match up much better with the Chiefs than they did the Seahawks. The problem is the Cardinals passing game isn’t quite good enough to expose the Chiefs, especially on the road.

Chiefs 24

Cardinals 17

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Green Bay -3.5

This is what ESPN does to you when you're 3-6

Perhaps the final meeting between Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers, sadly it won’t be the big game we expected prior to the season as the Vikings are pretty much out of the playoff race at this point with a 3-6 record. The Packers had their bye last week and come into this game needing a win to keep pace with the still surprising Bears who pushed themselves to 7-3 with a win in an absolutely terrible Thursday night football game. I see Aaron Rodgers going 2-0 against Favre this year and officially putting the stake through the heart of the Vikings season and hopefully the tenure of Brad Childress.

Green Bay 23

Vikings 17

Houston @ NY Jets

NY Jets -7

Houston can’t stop anybody through the air; they're the worst pass defense in the NFL by almost 20 yards giving up over 300 per game. Combine that with a Jets defense that hasn’t given up more than 23 points all season and I don’t think Houston will be able to keep up with the amount of points their defense will give up. I think this is the week that Shonn Green overtakes L.T. as their starting running back and Dustin Keller gets back into his early season form.

Jets 27

Texans 17

Oakland @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -7

The Raiders are 4-1 in their past 5 games shaking off a 2-4 start to their year to get to 5-4 and into first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs loss last week. However in order to maintain that first place spot their going to have to win some tough games in their last 6 with games against the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers still remaining. The Steelers were seemingly exposed last week by the Patriots as a team that’s extremely vulnerable to the short passing game, and as a team whose offensive line is in shambles. While the Raiders lack the personnel to attack with the short passing game, their defense is 2^nd in the league in sacks which should bode well for them against a banged up Steelers O-line. Where this game will be decided is in the secondary of both teams, if Oakland can slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack with their pass rush and back 7 they’ll have a chance on the road, but if Mike Wallace gets behind them the Steelers will pull out a close one. Right now the Raiders give up the second fewest passing yards per game, and the second lowest completion percentage and I don’t see Big Ben getting enough time to get the deep ball off in this one. Raiders win a close one.

Raiders 17

Steelers 13

Washington @ Tennessee

Tennessee -7

After the debacle that was the Monday night game for Washington I don’t know what to say about this Redskins team. I do know what to say about Randy Moss however, I think he’s done. After watching him play Miami at half speed pretty much the entire way I think he’s finally decided to stop playing hard period. Even with no Laron Landry I still don’t think he makes the big plays we used to expect from him. Tennessee will win this game but it will be on the legs of Chris Johnson and by the other players in the passing game who get more room because of the space Randy Moss opens up.

Titans 20

Redskins 17

Seattle @ New Orleans

New Orleans -12

"Don't worry Reggie your game checks will be even bigger in the pros"

Seattle finally got back on the winning track after consecutive blow out losses handing the Cardinals a rare home loss. Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Williams are probably the best QB/WR tandem in the NFC West which says a lot about the state of the NFC West but also a lot about how far Mike Williams has come. However they still haven’t come far enough to beat the Saints at home coming off a bye week. Especially when they’ll get back arguably their second most important offensive player back this week in Reggie Bush.

Saints 27

Seahawks 17

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

Tampa Bay -3.5

Troy Smith has reinvigorated the 49’ers offense with his ability to throw the deep ball combined with his general competence at the position. The 49’ers have put together back to back wins and if they were to win this week they’d be seemingly back in the NFC West race. Josh Freeman doesn't think thats going to happen. Tampa Bay is the classic team who beats the teams you expect them to beat and pretty much no one else, and at this point in the season I expect them to beat the 49'ers and I don't think they'll disappoint. 

Bucs 13

49'ers 10

Atlanta @ St. Louis

Atlanta -3.5

After a sterling performance on Thursday night against the Ravens at home the dirty birds hit the road to face the Rams. The Rams lost a disappointing game to the 49’ers in overtime but would be right back at .500 if they were to beat this Falcons team. Unfortunately for them it’s not going to happen, even though the Falcons are a better home team than road team, they’re only road losses were to the Eagles and the Steelers. The Falcons have been on fire offensively having scored over 30 points in their past 3 games, I think that streak ends but I think they keep on winning. 

Falcons 20

Rams 13

Indianapolis @ New England

New England -3.5

Outside of Michael Vick there aren’t any QB’s I love watching more than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Both of these guys are absolute masters of the craft and orchestrate their offense no matter who they have lining up next to them. Tom Brady took Jabar Gaffney and a number of castoffs to the AFC Championship a few years back while Peyton is turning Jacob Tamme and Mike Hart into household names this year. These guys show you how important the position of QB is in football, if you  have a great QB you can piecemeal a lot of other things around them and still be a good team. However I think that’s exactly the problem for the Colts, they’re just a good team. They’re too banged up on offense and their defense has a lot of trouble stopping any real potent scoring threat. I think Tom Brady puts a stop to the recent trend of Peyton dominating this matchup. Also as jacked up as Brady seemed last week I can’t imagine him being any less amped for this game.

Pats 31

Colts 27

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia -3

The Sunday Night platter this weekend is absolutely fantastic with this NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Vicks and the Giants. Michael Vick put up the performance of a lifetime last week while the Giants had a performance I’m sure they’d rather forget against the Cowboys. I honestly don’t know who’s going to stop Michael Vick at this point, part of me thinks he has to come up short sometime but I don’t think it will be this week at home against a Giants defense that was exposed by Jon Kitna. The Michael Vick experience continues its rapid ascension towards the MVP summit.

Eagles 27

Giants 20

Denver @ San Diego

San Diego -10

Denver not only upset Kansas City on Sunday they Oakland Raider’d them going off for some 49 points getting redemption on the wrong team for their home blow out a few weeks ago. They also created a little more AFC West rivalry with the Chiefs by not easing up at all in the 4^th and being a little too jovial on the sidelines for the taste of Todd Haley. San Diego seems to be doing what they do every year have everyone write them off before they get on a 6 or 7 game winning streak that puts them right back in the playoffs and right back on everyone’s list of teams they don’t want to play. I hate to say it but I see it happening again this year. In a QB dual between Phillip Rivers and Kyle Orton I take Phillip Rivers and I don’t even think about it.

Chargers 31

Broncos 24

Week 10 preview. Thursday Edition

The Weekly previews are going to be coming out a little earlier now because of Thursday night football. So enjoy a little weekly preview action Thursday as opposed to our normal Friday affair. 

Baltimore @ Atlanta

Pick EM

How this game goes to me depends on the health of Roddy White, it comes out this morning that he’ll probably play but how well he plays will determine how the Falcons do. Without him putting forth something comparable to his normal effort I don’t see how the Falcons can beat a really balanced Ravens team, however with him putting up his regular Roddy White numbers I think Matt Ryan extends his ridiculous home record to 18-1. Roddy White could either have a soft tissue bruise or a bone bruise, a bone bruise obviously being the more serious of the two, I honestly just don’t like betting on guys with knee injuries who aren’t Kobe Bryant so I’ve got the Ravens going into the Georgia Dome and heating up Matty Ice.

Ravens 24

Falcons 20

Detroit @ Buffalo

Buffalo -3

A battle of two teams that don’t quite know how to win yet. The Bills were up by 5 in the 4^th quarter before eventually giving the game away because of their inability to hold on to the ball. The Lions loss was even more inexcusable as they were up by 10 on the Jets in the 4^th quarter with a few minutes left. They had a 3^rd down with the Jets having no timeouts and instead of running the ball and taking 40+ seconds off the clock they pass and get an incompletion. This would be partially excusable if their franchise Matthew Stafford was in the game, because you want to show confidence in your young players, however he wasn’t. Decisions like that make me think the Bills will finally get off the schnide this week even with no Stafford.

Bills 23

Lions 19

Minnesota @ Chicago

Minnesota -1

Has Brett Favre finally turned the corner? Did anybody expect 446 yards to be his career high? That completely blew me away, as long and storied as Favre’s career has been I would have expected him to have thrown for 500 yards at least a few times but apparently he’s never even crossed the 450 mark.  The Bears barely beat the Bills with Jay Cutler throwing no interceptions and the Bills turning the ball over 3 times. I have to say they can’t count on luck so good against a Vikings team still fighting for a playoff wildcard berth. Brett Favre strings two wins together for the first time this year.

Vikings 27

Bears 17

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Jets - 3

Fun Fact. Rex Ryan has multiple wigs always at the ready

 In his press conference this week Rex Ryan put on a blonde wig and put a pillow under his shirt to become his brother Rob who’s the defensive coordinator for the Browns. Rob is looking a lot better than Rex would have you think as the Browns are coming off 2 straight wins over the Saints and the Pats lead primarily by Rob Ryan’s defense. The Jets just scrapped out a win against the Lions in a game they had no business winning without the Lions absolutely handing it to them. I think the Browns don’t hand the Jets anything except the upset loss they should have gotten last week.

Browns 17

Jets 13

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis -7.5

The Bengals showed some life at the end of their loss to the Steelers last week the question to me is whether that was too little too late. I don’t think they have much shoot at the playoffs at anymore so I wonder whether guys like T.O. and Chad Ochocinco can be counted on to still play as hard as they have been, or in Chad’s case complain as much as he has been. Who would have thought T.O. would be the better receiver of the two of these guys be a mile, as much attention as Chad draws he still just isn’t getting it done. Sure T.O. doesn’t have coverage rolling to his side but he soon will the way Chad isn’t producing and I doubt that will slow him as much as it’s slowed Mr. Ochocinco. The Colts just couldn’t stop Michael Vick although nobody has been able to this year so there’s no shame in that, there would be some shame in losing to the Bengals at home, but they won’t do that.

Colts 31

Bengals 23

Houston @ Jacksonville

Jacksonville – 1.5

Looking at this game I don’t really know what to say. The last time the Jaguars played a pass defense as bad as the Texans David Garrard threw 4 touchdown passes, rushed for one more, and then cured world hunger.  The Texans just got obliterated by the angriest QB around Phillip Rivers to the tune of 293 and 4 touchdowns while he was throwing to junior college rec team. Houston is just a middle of the road team now and on the road I don’t think they’re good enough to beat another mediocre team in the Jaguars.

Jaguars 24

Houston 20

Tennessee @ Miami

Tennessee – 2

Randy Moss= Dolphin destroyer

Apparently somebody on the Ravens spit on Channing Crowder which has him rightfully very upset. The NFL is investigating this but we all know nothing is going to come of it because nothing can be proven. I highly doubt Crowder would make something up, and I have a feeling the Ravens don’t feel bad about it especially with all the trash they talked after the game. I tell that story because that’s the only interesting thing I can that comes to my mind when I see the Dolphins. The Titans on the other hand premiere Randy Moss this week against a secondary he obliterated many times during his Patriot days, after watching him lay an absolute egg against said Patriots my confidence in Moss is shaken. However the Titans don’t need him to be anything more than a decoy to beat the Dolphins.

Titans 17

Dolphins 12

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay -7

Raheem Morris should probably refrain from calling his team the best in the NFC after that horrendous end of game goal line call he made against the Falcons last week. The Panthers just got spanked by the Saints 34-3 last week and I don’t think things are going to get much better this week. Josh Freeman has been pretty good, but even better have been his two rookie receivers.  Arrelious Benn and the other Mike Williams have been revelations for the Bucs combined with the excellent special team’s play of Michael Spurlock have made this Bucs team a serious playoff threat. The Panthers on the other hand are now down not just DeAngelo Williams, but Jonathan Stewart and Tyrell Sutton. So the Panthers are going to be going on the road with Mike Goodson at starting running back and Jimmy Clausen. Yeah Bucs win big

Bucs 27

Panthers 10

Kansas City @ Denver

Kansas City – 1.5

After a disappointing loss in Oakland Kansas City looks to rebound against a poor Broncos team. Last week the Chiefs had an opportunity to create some distance between them and the rest of the AFC West however with the loss now all of the teams in the AFC West are within 1 ½ games of each other. Looking at Denver I don’t know how many weeks Josh McDaniel has left if the Broncos continue to play the way they have, combine that with his trade of Peyton Hillis for Brady Quinn which is looking even worse and worse by the day for the Broncos. As good as Dwayne Bowe can look he still has huge problems with drops dropping what would have been a game sealing catch against the Raiders last week. The once place the Chiefs do struggle is in the passing game and that’s the one place where the Broncos excel. I think the Broncos spring an upset and keep McDaniel’s job safe for another week.

Broncos 24

Chiefs 20

Seattle @ Arizona

Arizona -3.5

After a promising start to the year the Seahawks have lost the past two games by a combined score of 10-74. I think the Seahawks might have seen enough of Charlie Whitehurst to realize he’s not the QB of the future or even the present. Luckily for Seahawk fans they’ll get everyone’s favorite bald QB back against the Cardinals who sport a solid 2-1 home record with their only loss being a very close 35-38 loss to a good Bucs team. Derek Anderson is pretty bad but he’s NFL bad, he belongs in the league except as a backup QB. However against a Seahawks team that can’t stop anybody running or passing I think the Cardinals finally have an explosive day at home.

Cardinals 31

Seahawks 24

Dallas @ NY Giants

Composite drawing of every Cowboys fan

NY Giants -14

Seriously I don’t know if they could make a line high enough for me to not bet on the Giants in this game. The Giants won their last game 41-7 while the Cowboys lost their last game 45-7. I do think the firing of Wade Phillips will make some difference with the Cowboys, but the fact remains they’re just an awful awful team.

Giants 34

Cowboys 14

St. Louis @ San Francisco

San Francisco -6

Frisco finally got their second win of the year over an even more inept Broncos team in England. As  much as Roger Goodell wants to expand the league giving them games like 49’ers vs. Broncos won’t have them begging for more NFL action. St. Louis’ last game was a tough last second loss to the Bucs, but now they’ve had a bye week to get Steven Jackson healthy or at least healthier which should be huge against the 49’ers. However Troy Smith did inject some life into the niners like I thought he would and I think this is the beginning of his run to get them back into the NFC West division race.

49ers 20

Rams 17

New England @ Pittsburgh

Steelers -5

It seemed like a classic trap game for the Pats last week and it was as the Browns demolished them by 20 points on the road. Pittsburgh barely held off a more than game Cincinnati team stopping a last second drive on the goal line to hold on to a slim victory. Both of these teams are trying to stake their claim as the best in the AFC and possibly the league. Big Ben will be without his starting left tackle Max Starks not just for this game but for the rest of the season as was placed on IR. Big Ben is probably  one of the few QB’s who could take a blow like that and still manage to be as good if not better, Roethlisberger has the best QB rating after contact in the NFL and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to improve starting this week against the Pats. Looking at this Steelers team I think while they may not be as tough running the football as we give them credit for their tough enough to pound a Pats team that struggles against the run.

Steelers 24

Pats 20

Philadelphia @ Washington

Philadelphia -3

Vick vs. Mcnabb II this time it’s for blood. The last time these two teams faced off against each other Michael Vick was knocked early in the game with a rib injury that allowed the Redskins to come away with the victory. I don’t think the skins will be as lucky this week with Vick not missing a beat last week dismantling the Colts I think he’ll want revenge on the team that knocked him out these past weeks. Looking at Washington it’s a team in disarray, people talk about the coaching issues in Minnesota but their seem to be just as many in Washington and when your starting QB and your head coach don’t trust each other it spells doom for your franchise. I think the Redskins get 4 full quarters of the Michael Vick experience.

Eagles 31

Redskins 23

Tuesday Morning Week 6 Recap.

Week 6 predictions heads up: 7-7


Week 6 predictions against the spread:8-6


Record so far: 39-34


The NFL had quite a week 6. The prevailing story out of the NFL this week will be concussions and head to head hits and how the NFL can police the violence of football without taking away the essence of what makes it great. The Seahawks go on the road and get a win outside their division for the first time in 3 years under the steady hand of Pete Carroll. Pierre Garcon makes in absolutely ridiculous one handed grab in a Sunday night game that just showcased how amazing Peyton Manning is. Joseph Addai puts up 100+ yards and I feel like a lot of the yards can be attributed to Peyton Manning making the right choices and getting Joseph Addai in a position to be successful. A couple of seemingly game deciding pass interference penalties in the Texans V Chiefs game and the Jets V Broncos game have reignited the call for the NFL to switch to the college rules of a 15 yards pass interference rule. But without further adieu lets break into the things on my mind from Week 6 of the NFL.


The Wraith of Kolb

Fun Fact Kevin Kolb has a really big head

Kevin Kolb apparently reads the blog and wasn’t happy with my repeated bashing of him and his check down bonanza the past two weeks and decided to absolutely obliterate the Falcons. He throws 7 completions for over 20 yards on his way to 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. The final score was 31-17 and it wasn’t that close as David Akers missed a couple of 37 yard gimmes that would have made it even uglier. While the win against the 49’er really didn’t impress anyone, to blow out a Falcons team people were calling the best in the NFC does. Just when you thought things were settled in Philly Kolb throws a monkey wrench into the plans. I thought he might play well enough to up his trade value in the off season but he’s played well enough to once again give Andy Reid a tough decision if he puts together another good game this week. I think the odds are in his favor since Tennessee has the 23^rd ranked passing defense in the NFL and they’re only that high after a Monday night debacle against the Jaguars. So once again we’ll have a quarterback scorn in the city of brotherly love the only question is will it be # 7 or #4.

The Return of Roethlisberger

Big Ben made his return to the Steeler faithful with a beat down of the AFC north punching bag Cleveland Browns. I don’t know if there could have been a better set up for Big Ben he returns to a team that’s just hitting its stride with a plethora of weapons on the offensive end and a defense that will keep them in any game. So of course he goes out and puts up 257 and 3 touchdowns, but something was troubling about the performance. Honestly it didn’t have anything to do with the game that he played but more with his post game interview. He didn’t acknowledge any wrong doing on his part essentially say the suspension was unfair to him. On top of that he then proceeded to say that all of those actions were that of “Big Ben” and not of him. This shows the sort of cavalier attitude that Ben Roethlisberger still has. Despite this suspension he still remains above it all. I would be more prone to forgive and give him the benefit of the doubt if this wasn’t his second rape accusation in as many years with a plethora of evidence coming out against him things just seem to point to a privileged guy living in a world where he thinks he’s untouchable, and it doesn’t seem like the NFL suspension has done anything to change that. Its troubling that in a league where Michael Vick is still pretty reviled for brutally killing a large number of dogs, Ben Roethlisberger is left relatively unscathed after seemingly having non consensual sex with with two different womyn in the span of two years. Don't get me wrong I think that what Michael Vick did is absolutely terrible and he deserves absolutely all of the scorn he receives however Big Ben deserves a heaping helping of it on his plate as well. I guess those two super bowl rings do a good job deflecting a lot of criticism. 

The Vikings win Panic Bowl 2010

With both of their seasons on the brink the Vikings beat the Cowboys in a sloppy turnover and penalty filled game that showed just how far both of these presumptive NFC Super Bowl contenders had fallen. The Cowboys just can’t get out of their own way it seems. Another excessive celebration penalty, an unnecessary push off by Miles Austin that negates a long touchdown pass, blatant pass interference on their last gasp of a defensive stand, and finally a few Tony Romo interceptions. As “talented” as Dallas is supposed to be they can’t seem to win games. I put talent in quotations because I’ve never been a big believer in talented teams that don’t win. If you’re not winning then you’re not all that talented to me. I think the NFL will always be about talent first and discipline/coaching/scheme second. Sure the Steelers run a great 3-4 defense but if they didn’t have a slew of pro bowl players playing in it then it wouldn’t be nearly as dominant. I think the same can be said for the Cowboys. They don’t seem to have a single good player on their offensive line, they have no running game to speak of and while they have a lot of players in the passing game they can’t stop turning the ball over. I don’t think they’re nearly as talented as they’re made out to be. The Vikings also seem to be having offensive line problems. If Brett Favre continues to get hit like he did against the Cowboys he won’t make it through the season. The trio of Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe are dynamic but if Favre doesn’t have time to find them it’ll be for naught. So the Vikings won the game and are right back in their division race because of Packers and Bear’s losses, but things aren’t all fixed in the land of Lakes either.

The obligatory NFL is violent piece

The NFL wants to see less of this

So as we all know the NFL is a violent sport. This weekend it seemed a bit more violent as several players were knocked out of games. The most vicious hit being the Dunta Robinson on Desean Jackson hit which knocked both the hitter and the person hit out of the game. James Harrison delivered two knockout blows and then post game delivered a slew of comments that I don’t think made the NFL too happy. When asked about the violence and whether he has concern for players welfare he said “I thought Cribbs was asleep,”  “A hit like that geeks you up — it geeks everybody up — especially when you find out that the guy is not really hurt — he’s just sleeping. He’s knocked out, but he’s going to be OK.. I don’t know what’s more baffling, that James Harrison is so ignorant to the consequences of the sport that he plays or that a quote like this hasn’t been paraded around as the example of what’s wrong with the NFL. Somebody being knocked out from a hit isn’t them going to “sleep” nor are they ok after the fact. He also dropped this jewel “I want to hurt somebody,If you hurt somebody, they’ll be back the next play. I don’t want to see anybody injured. An injury will keep you out. But I’m not opposed to hurting anybody.” Honestly I don’t have as much trouble with that statement as I do with the previous one. Football is a violent sport and I don’t have a problem with wanting a little intimidation. Players hitting hard isn’t the problem, players leading with their heads, and the coaches that teach them to lead with their heads and the highlight culture that encourages reckless play because of some ridiculous macho standard are the problem. Making football safer doesn’t make it a sissy sport or less manly it makes it smarter. Roger Goodell has talked a good game about the leagues commitment to becoming a safer game and about concussion prevention but now the spotlight is on him. How he handles not only this week but drafting a policy that goes forward from this point will tell a lot about his tenure as commissioner. Punishing the players with suppensions is a start but it doesn’t attack the root cause of the problem. Players are taught from an early age to hit a certain way, dangerous tackles and head to head collisions are branded as tough hard nosed football from an early age. Until something is done about that football will continue to be a sport that is even more dangerous than it needs to be.