Tuesday Morning Week 6 Recap.

Week 6 predictions heads up: 7-7


Week 6 predictions against the spread:8-6


Record so far: 39-34


The NFL had quite a week 6. The prevailing story out of the NFL this week will be concussions and head to head hits and how the NFL can police the violence of football without taking away the essence of what makes it great. The Seahawks go on the road and get a win outside their division for the first time in 3 years under the steady hand of Pete Carroll. Pierre Garcon makes in absolutely ridiculous one handed grab in a Sunday night game that just showcased how amazing Peyton Manning is. Joseph Addai puts up 100+ yards and I feel like a lot of the yards can be attributed to Peyton Manning making the right choices and getting Joseph Addai in a position to be successful. A couple of seemingly game deciding pass interference penalties in the Texans V Chiefs game and the Jets V Broncos game have reignited the call for the NFL to switch to the college rules of a 15 yards pass interference rule. But without further adieu lets break into the things on my mind from Week 6 of the NFL.


The Wraith of Kolb

Fun Fact Kevin Kolb has a really big head

Kevin Kolb apparently reads the blog and wasn’t happy with my repeated bashing of him and his check down bonanza the past two weeks and decided to absolutely obliterate the Falcons. He throws 7 completions for over 20 yards on his way to 326 yards and 3 touchdowns. The final score was 31-17 and it wasn’t that close as David Akers missed a couple of 37 yard gimmes that would have made it even uglier. While the win against the 49’er really didn’t impress anyone, to blow out a Falcons team people were calling the best in the NFC does. Just when you thought things were settled in Philly Kolb throws a monkey wrench into the plans. I thought he might play well enough to up his trade value in the off season but he’s played well enough to once again give Andy Reid a tough decision if he puts together another good game this week. I think the odds are in his favor since Tennessee has the 23^rd ranked passing defense in the NFL and they’re only that high after a Monday night debacle against the Jaguars. So once again we’ll have a quarterback scorn in the city of brotherly love the only question is will it be # 7 or #4.

The Return of Roethlisberger

Big Ben made his return to the Steeler faithful with a beat down of the AFC north punching bag Cleveland Browns. I don’t know if there could have been a better set up for Big Ben he returns to a team that’s just hitting its stride with a plethora of weapons on the offensive end and a defense that will keep them in any game. So of course he goes out and puts up 257 and 3 touchdowns, but something was troubling about the performance. Honestly it didn’t have anything to do with the game that he played but more with his post game interview. He didn’t acknowledge any wrong doing on his part essentially say the suspension was unfair to him. On top of that he then proceeded to say that all of those actions were that of “Big Ben” and not of him. This shows the sort of cavalier attitude that Ben Roethlisberger still has. Despite this suspension he still remains above it all. I would be more prone to forgive and give him the benefit of the doubt if this wasn’t his second rape accusation in as many years with a plethora of evidence coming out against him things just seem to point to a privileged guy living in a world where he thinks he’s untouchable, and it doesn’t seem like the NFL suspension has done anything to change that. Its troubling that in a league where Michael Vick is still pretty reviled for brutally killing a large number of dogs, Ben Roethlisberger is left relatively unscathed after seemingly having non consensual sex with with two different womyn in the span of two years. Don't get me wrong I think that what Michael Vick did is absolutely terrible and he deserves absolutely all of the scorn he receives however Big Ben deserves a heaping helping of it on his plate as well. I guess those two super bowl rings do a good job deflecting a lot of criticism. 

The Vikings win Panic Bowl 2010

With both of their seasons on the brink the Vikings beat the Cowboys in a sloppy turnover and penalty filled game that showed just how far both of these presumptive NFC Super Bowl contenders had fallen. The Cowboys just can’t get out of their own way it seems. Another excessive celebration penalty, an unnecessary push off by Miles Austin that negates a long touchdown pass, blatant pass interference on their last gasp of a defensive stand, and finally a few Tony Romo interceptions. As “talented” as Dallas is supposed to be they can’t seem to win games. I put talent in quotations because I’ve never been a big believer in talented teams that don’t win. If you’re not winning then you’re not all that talented to me. I think the NFL will always be about talent first and discipline/coaching/scheme second. Sure the Steelers run a great 3-4 defense but if they didn’t have a slew of pro bowl players playing in it then it wouldn’t be nearly as dominant. I think the same can be said for the Cowboys. They don’t seem to have a single good player on their offensive line, they have no running game to speak of and while they have a lot of players in the passing game they can’t stop turning the ball over. I don’t think they’re nearly as talented as they’re made out to be. The Vikings also seem to be having offensive line problems. If Brett Favre continues to get hit like he did against the Cowboys he won’t make it through the season. The trio of Randy Moss, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe are dynamic but if Favre doesn’t have time to find them it’ll be for naught. So the Vikings won the game and are right back in their division race because of Packers and Bear’s losses, but things aren’t all fixed in the land of Lakes either.

The obligatory NFL is violent piece

The NFL wants to see less of this

So as we all know the NFL is a violent sport. This weekend it seemed a bit more violent as several players were knocked out of games. The most vicious hit being the Dunta Robinson on Desean Jackson hit which knocked both the hitter and the person hit out of the game. James Harrison delivered two knockout blows and then post game delivered a slew of comments that I don’t think made the NFL too happy. When asked about the violence and whether he has concern for players welfare he said “I thought Cribbs was asleep,”  “A hit like that geeks you up — it geeks everybody up — especially when you find out that the guy is not really hurt — he’s just sleeping. He’s knocked out, but he’s going to be OK.. I don’t know what’s more baffling, that James Harrison is so ignorant to the consequences of the sport that he plays or that a quote like this hasn’t been paraded around as the example of what’s wrong with the NFL. Somebody being knocked out from a hit isn’t them going to “sleep” nor are they ok after the fact. He also dropped this jewel “I want to hurt somebody,If you hurt somebody, they’ll be back the next play. I don’t want to see anybody injured. An injury will keep you out. But I’m not opposed to hurting anybody.” Honestly I don’t have as much trouble with that statement as I do with the previous one. Football is a violent sport and I don’t have a problem with wanting a little intimidation. Players hitting hard isn’t the problem, players leading with their heads, and the coaches that teach them to lead with their heads and the highlight culture that encourages reckless play because of some ridiculous macho standard are the problem. Making football safer doesn’t make it a sissy sport or less manly it makes it smarter. Roger Goodell has talked a good game about the leagues commitment to becoming a safer game and about concussion prevention but now the spotlight is on him. How he handles not only this week but drafting a policy that goes forward from this point will tell a lot about his tenure as commissioner. Punishing the players with suppensions is a start but it doesn’t attack the root cause of the problem. Players are taught from an early age to hit a certain way, dangerous tackles and head to head collisions are branded as tough hard nosed football from an early age. Until something is done about that football will continue to be a sport that is even more dangerous than it needs to be. 

week 6 preview.

Sorry no quick hits this week got a lot going on but I'll make sure to put a lot in the week 6 recap.

Seattle @ Chicago

Chicago -6

Seattle has been bad on the road and good at home, and this week they’re going against a Bears team that’s at home coming off an impressive win powered by Matt Forte and their defense as Todd Collins managed to only generate 4 interceptions and about 30 yards of passing. So to get a win like that and get your starting QB back has to make the Bears feel confident. Seattle on the other hand is coming off a loss to the Rams but during the bye week they picked up Marshawn Lynch who should do the running game a lot of good. I just don’t think it will be good enough against Chicago’s 3^rd ranked run defense.

Bears 23              

             

Seahawks 17

Miami @ Green Bay

Green Bay -3

So after a lot of speculation it seems as though Aaron Rodgers will get the start after sustaining a concussion at the end of the game against the skins. He’ll be facing a solid Miami defense who's ranked 7^th in total defense. They don’t really get a lot of pressure on the QB only ranked 18^th in sacks so far. So while they’re a solid defensive unit they just don’t pressure the QB as much as you’d want or create enough turnovers having only 4 so far this year.  The Dolphins on the offensive end seem to have a good deal of balance their main problem is the same as their defense, turnovers. Every time they got something going against New England on Monday night they would turn the ball over.  The Packers opportunistic defense combined with a home crowd spells a close victory to me.

Packers 27

Dolphins 23

Kansas City @ Houston

Houston -4.5

Lamest Emblem ever

The Kansas City Red Arrows put together a valiant effort against the Colts, if not for the inexcusable drop of Dwayne Bowe who knows how that game turns out. However he did drop the pass and the Chiefs lost so they look to get back on the winning path against a Texans team battling its own problems. Houston came out 2-0 and everyone including yours truly proclaimed that they had finally turned the corner and they follow that with two rather lopsided losses and a close win against the Raiders, not the resume of a playoff team.  I think Kansas City is more real than Houston is at this point. They can run the football and while they’re not explosive they won’t beat themselves something you can’t say about the Texans.

Chiefs 20

Texans 17

Baltimore @ New England

New England -3

Tom Brady with his first chance to remind everybody it’s been all about him all along. He can still do it with smoke, mirrors, and Wes Welker. Or maybe the 2^nd ranked passing defense in the league and the #3 defense overall reminds the Pats of what happened last year, a Ravens blow out. Looking at these teams I don’t see how these matchups have changed the Pats don’t have anybody who can keep up with Ray Rice and that hasn’t changed since last year. Without the deep play threat of Randy Moss the middle of the field won’t be so wide open for guys like Welker and Aaron Hernandez. I think Ray Rice has back to back big games and the Ravens win convingly.

Ravens 31

Pats 20

Detroit @ NY Giants

NY Giants -10

The Giants have a lot people talking about them as possibly the best team in the NFC next to the Falcons. I’m not quite drinking the kool-aid just yet. They got absolutely lambasted by the Colts in Indy and I think they have a few weaknesses that can be exposed by the right team. The Lions have some of the ingredients do just that. They have an explosive passing game with Shaun Hill, Calvin Johnson, and their two tight ends Pettigrew and Scheffler. If Jahvid Best can get back going after a few off weeks they can regain some offensive balance. However the Giants are even more explosive on the other side with Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, and Mario Mannigham. I think that combined with a superior Giants pass rush means The G-men will come out on top in this match up, but I think it will be closer than people think. The Lions are a scrappy team and they been in pretty much every game they’ve lost this year.

Giants 27

Lions 20

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Eagles -1

Kevin Kolb comes in for relief of Michael Vick against the 49’ers and puts together a solid albeit not spectacular performance. However a solid performance won’t be enough to beat a Falcons team that seems to be vying for the title of the NFC’s elite. The NFC south never seems to have back to back champs and this year seems no different with the Saints struggling while the young Falcons and Bucs make headway towards a division championship. The eagles on the other hand just want to hold the fort until Michael Vick makes his way back from his rib injury which will probably be a bit longer than any Eagles fan would hope. Atlanta has strung together 4 straight wins after a tough 9-15 loss against a Pittsburgh defense we didn’t realize was so good in week 1. The Falcons are doing it through the old NFL clichés of running the ball and stopping the run. The Eagles were able to get a gutty performance from Lesean Mccoy last week with cracked ribs to the tune of 92 yards on 18 carries. That was pretty key in setting up Kevin Kolb to be as effective as he can be since he didn’t take advantage of the deep ball pretty much all game. However playing a tough Falcons run D I don’t think Lesean is as effective and the Falcons get a tough road win.

Falcons 24

Eagles 17

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -11.5

I don’t know if Colt McCoy could have a harder starting situation than this. Facing Pittsburgh on the road, in the returning game for Ben Roethlisberger. Big Spreads like this normally make me nervous but I don’t see any way that the Browns keep this game close. They’ve managed to be competitive with a number of teams of teams but they haven’t played anyone of the Steelers caliper. Combine that with Big Bens homecoming and this has all the makings of a Steeler blowout.

Steelers 31

Browns 10

San Diego @ St. Louis

San Diego -8

The 2010 Chargers ladies and Gentleman

The Chargers always start slow and everyone reminds us of that at every turn. So nobody is really in a panick about the Chargers, however if they lose this game I think a lot of people might be. The Chargers haven’t won a road game all year but eventually they’ll have to break through if they want to be a playoff team. The Rams just went on the road themselves and got blasted by the Lions by about 40 points. The Chargers have put up yards by the boatload but haven’t been able to cash those in for points due to numerous turnovers. That combined with their putrid special teams has cost them more than one game this season. The Rams already beat a solid Redskins team at home so its not impossible. I think I’ll put this game in the same category as the 49’ers game from last week. If they Chargers lose here I’m writing them off for the rest of the season.

Chargers 30

Rams 24

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans -4.5

 
All week long we’ve been asking the question: Whats wrong with N’awlins. I don’t think theres a simple answer. Their defense isn’t causing nearly as many turnovers as last year, and their running game isn’t effective without reggie bush and Pierre Thomas. Those two factors combine to drastically hinder their once explosive offense. With no short fields from the defense they don’t score as quickly. Their quick scores last year allowed them to jump out ahead and allowed their aggressive defense to be even more aggressive. With no solid running game it hinders their play action passing ability which is where they get a lot of their deep strikes from. The thing is the bucs can’t stop the run, so this is probably the week the Saints will finally look like themselves. I don’t think they’ll get a plethora of turnovers but I think they’ll find some running room against a pourous tampa bay front 4 that can rush the passer but can’t stop the run. This will allow them to hit the deep ball and it will calm everyone down about the Saints for  a week or two. However the Bucs have played too well this year outside of the Pittsburgh to get blown out here. They’ll lose the game but they’ll keep it competitive.

New Orleans 27

Tampa Bay 21

NY Jets @ Denver

Jets -3

The Jets are on a roll right now looking like one of the prohibitive favorites of the AFC. The Broncos on the other hand look like one of the plethora of mediocre to bad AFC West teams outside of the suprising Chiefs. This could be a surprise game for the Jets because with a hobbled Darrelle Revis the Jets can be challenged through the air and that’s exactly what the Broncos plan to do all game. The only question is can they protect against the variety of blitzes that Rex Ryan is going to send Kyle Ortons way. The Broncos have no semblance of a running game to slow down the pressure so they’ll have protect Kyle Orton and mix in some screens and draws along with some quick 1 step and 3 step drops. On the other side of the ball Mark Sanchez hasn’t turned the ball over all year and while he’s still not as explosive as the Jets would like him to be he’s taking care of the ball, not making mistakes and taking a few risks, he’s a bit more than a game manager at this point but not much more. The story here is still L.T. who I have to say looks just like his MVP version which I don’t think anybody say coming. I think those two things will be enough to beat the Broncos on the road

Jets 20

Broncos 17

Oakland @ San Francisco

San Francisco -6

It’s as simple as this I said I wouldn’t pick the Niner's after they lost on Monday night and I’m true to my word. Even though that means they’ll probably get their first win against my beloved Raiders. However with the way they’ve been playing I think they’ll give away the game to a team that’s almost as prone as them to giving away games.

Raiders 24

Niner’s 17

Dallas @ Minnesota

Vikings -1 1/2

This has been dubbed the Panic bowl by a large group of people and I can’t say I disagree. Whoever loses this game will seem to be in an almost insurmountable hole. Looking back at the last game for both teams I have to say I was more encouraged by the Vikings performance. They played a tough Jets team on the road and managed to come to the brink of winning the game on a second half flurry of offense. The Cowboys on the other hand repeated their standard script of self destruction. 3 Tony Romo interceptions and plethora of penalties including the most important and inexcusable an excessive celebration penalty on Marc Colombo with the game still in contention. Of course Tennessee then takes the kickoff back to the red zone. Titans score Cowboys lose. While Minnesota isn’t as good as they were last year I don’t think you can count on the Cowboys to not beat themselves especially not on the road.

Vikings 27

Cowboys 20

Indianapolis @ Washington

Indianapolis -3

Washington has managed to be in pretty much every game this year except their loss to the Rams. While a loss to the Rams seems a bit troubling the Redskins are at home against the Colts where they haven’t lost in some 40 odd years. However most of those years they didn’t have to play Peyton Manning. Despite the Fact the colts are a mere 3-2 Peyton has been his usual brilliant self putting together an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio. The Colts just won a tough game against a better than expected Chiefs team at home. This week I think they win a tough game against a better than expected Redskins team on the road.

Colts 31

Redskins 24

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Tennessee -3

The normally Colts dominated AFC South is a 4 way battle for 1^st place right now.  All 4 teams are sitting at 3-2 and the only team without a division is Colts most surprising of all. Jacksonville is looking to continue this 2 game win streak into a 3 game win streak and rack up another win against a tough division foe. They beat the Colts in overtime thanks to their running game, David Garrard not turning the ball over, and  tremendous kicking of one Josh Scoobey and they’re hoping that can be the formula for another division win. The Titans don’t have consecutive anything’s this season wins or losses. They just beat a cowboy’s team at home that nobody is still certain about. They could be a good team struggling or they could just be a struggling team. Either way Vince Young had a deceptively bad game he threw a few balls up for grabs that weren’t turned into turnovers especially his touchdown pass to Kenny Britt. However with all that being said the Titans have a been a really good road team and the Jaguars already got blown out 28-3 to a mobile quarterback. While Vince Young is no Michael Vick I think he’s good enough to get the win.

Titans 28

Jags20

Tuesday Morning Week 5 Recap.

Week 4 Predicitions Heads up 5-9

Week 4 Predictions against the spread 5-9

Record so far 32-27

This was an absolutely putrid week for me picks wise, but hey that’s why I don’t gamble…………………as much as I used to. A week of ginormous upsets this week, Oakland ending a 7 year skid of not being able to beat the bolts and the Cards beating the champs with an undrafted rookie. Brett Favre puts together some second half magic with 3 touchdowns that reminds us he’s still Brett Favre, and then throws a pick 6 to lose the game which reminds us he’s still Brett Favre. The Falcons have begun to emerge as the favorites of the NFC, their only loss being a very close 15-9 game against a Steelers defense we didn’t know was that good at the time. They probably should have lost to Frisco had Nate Clements not fumbled away a game sealing int, but as the saying goes “good teams find a way to win games” and they have. But enough about the Dirty Birds let’s get into the quick hits

ooooooooohhh Bretty Boy

Face palm indeed Brett.

Wow. This is funny beyond words. That is all. Especially during the month when his wife is most visible since its breast cancer awareness month and all. I'm sure she's quite aware of this. So just in case this Monday night match up between the Jets and the Vikings wasn't good enough you can now add penisgate to the lead up. Just a heads up this video is NSFW due to a penis shot around the 2 minute mark. However hilarity ensues throughout.

http://deadspin.com/5658206/

Week 5 Preview

Week 5: After a mega trade followed by continued trash talk the Monday night Jets Vikings match up is even more excited than previously hoped. While Randy Moss dons the Viking horns once again, Tom Brady is back in a familiar position this bye week trying to turn a receiving core of also rans outside of Wes Welker into a super bowl caliber unit. Peyton Manning needs to get on track again against the last of the undefeated after a loss to a seemingly dreadful Jaguars team. 

A Rex Ryan Battle Royale for the AFC crown

Rex Ryan is a fan of the Cosby Sweater

Maybe Week one told us more than we thought it did. Looking at the AFC now the Ravens and the Jets look like two strong contenders for the crown. After a week one outing that nobody was proud of both teams came out of the game looking offensively inept, but maybe it was just a match up of two premiere defenses against two offenses that had yet to jell.  After 4 weeks that seems the more likely scenario as both of these teams have put together impressive 3-1 records.  Both teams are lead by defenses constructed by Rex Ryan, one of which he still coaches and the other one his imprint is still fresh .  Both have two young quarterbacks coming into their own surrounded by a plethora of weapons in Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez. They truly seem to be mirror images of one another which could make a rematch in the AFC championship game all the more exciting.

The return of the Super Freak

In one of the biggest mid season deals I can remember in football the Pats sent Randy Moss back to his original NFL home in Minneapolis. The Vikings seem to be going all in on this year putting everything they have into winning the super bowl this year damn the consequences and I can respect a team willing to do that. Moss is the perfect complement to a Brett Favre that we’ve all seen is more than willing to throw up a jump ball to pretty much any receiver. Combine that with Adrian Peterson, a pretty stout Vikings defense, and perhaps a mid season return of Sidney Rice and the Vikings seemed poised for a super bowl run. Or at least you had better hope they are as a Vikings fan because we all know what happens to Randy Moss when things aren’t going well.

Sam Bradford looks like the real deal

After 4 weeks in the NFL I think its safe to say that the St. Louis Ram’s didn’t draft the next Jamaracus Russel. Sam Bradford seems to have everything you want in your franchise quarterback a rocket arm, accuracy, leadership, and the ability to step in immediately and be a difference maker. This team has shades of the Falcons and Ravens of a few years ago where rookie quarterbacks lead teams that nobody saw coming, into the playoffs. The difference being this rams team doesn’t have a good defense to support Bradford but they play in a division so terrible they don’t need one.

Denver @ Baltimore

Baltimore-7

Baltimore might be the 2nd best or best team in the AFC. There aren’t really any juggernauts to speak of in either division at this point in the year but they have compiled wins over what seem like the best team while their only loss is to a 2-2 team, the Bengals. This is a classic immovable object vs. unstoppable force match up pitting Denver’s #1 passing offense against Baltimore’s #1 passing defense.  I hate to be the one to say it but Denver’s win last week against Tennessee was pretty fluky. A questionable pass interference call to get them to the one followed by a fumbled kickoff to pretty much seal the win for them. I think their luck runs out against a good Baltimore team on the road

Ravens 27

Broncos 17

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Buffalo -1

They’re sure are a lot of ugly games in week 5. This one might be the ugliest. The Bills are 1 point favorites despite being winless and the Jaguars beating the Colts last week. I don’t really know what to make of that Jags win last week. David Garrard looked solid both passing and with his feet against what seemed like an improved Colts defense. They finally got their Mojo going after weeks of absence, but they still don’t generate any pass rush.  Buffalo on the other hand got absolutely creamed by a Jets team that seems to be shaping up to be one the best teams in the league.  Their leading rusher in that game was Ryan Fitzpatrick who also led them in rushing attempts never a good sign.  I would say maybe the friendly confines of home would help this Bills team, but they were at home last week. I think the Jags make it over .500 this week.

Jags 24

Bills 20

Chicago @ Carolina

Pick em

In another battle that nobody wants to watch a Jay Cutlerless Chicago Bears team faces off against a winless Panthers team that just put a scare into the World Champs. Up to last week the Bears had been doing a stand up job stopping the run…....then they were gashed for 189 yards at 5.8 yards a touch. I think this is the perfect opponent for Carolina to get their first win. Carolina finally got their two headed backfield on track against the Saints now they can build on that momentum against the Bears. With Todd Collins leading the Chi-town attack I doubt it’s as explosive as it’s shown in the past few weeks. The Panthers have managed to stay close in the last two games they’ve lost, this week they don’t just stay close they stay ahead.

Panthers 17

Bears 10

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati

Cincinnati – 7

Alert the presses we have a Carson Palmer sighting. After being AWOL for the first 3 weeks of the season Carson decided to show up against a putrid browns defense yet his presence wasn’t enough to lead the Bengals to victory. The problem for the Bengals offense is twofold. 1: They don’t have an established identity; last year they were a run the ball grind it out team and this year they’re trying to air it out to justify their personal additions. However Carson Palmer just isn’t a QB who can do that on a week to week basis anymore. 2.  A rushing attack that was dominant a year ago hasn’t produced a 100 yard rusher yet in 4 games; Cedric Benson is averaging an anemic 3.3 yards per carry. Tampa on the other hand was exposed in week 3 by the Steelers as a team that wasn’t quite as good as they thought they were coming into that game. However the Steelers are one of the better teams in the league so losing to them is not shameful as a young up and coming team.  The problem for the Bucs is that they can’t stop the run ranking 26^th in the NFL, however I just don’t think the Bengals can run the football well enough to make them pay and the Bucs get an upset on the road

Bucs 20

Bengals 17

Atlanta @ Cleveland

Atlanta -3

Peyton Hillis 2010: Haircut hall of fame

I expected Atlanta to blow out an over matched 49’ers team at home but not only did they not do that they were a play away from outright losing the game. The Browns represent a much more game opponent coming off their first win of the year against the Bengals.  Carson Palmer put up a solid game against an atrocious Cleveland pass defense so I’d pencil Matt Ryan in for a breakout performance as well. The Browns on the other hand are riding the effective running of Peyton Hillis, and the not so bad play of Seneca Wallace who at least turns the ball over less than Jake Delhomme. I think that’s enough for the Browns to make it 2 straight at home and send the Falcons back to the drawing board after what we thought was a breakout win against the Saints two weeks ago.

Browns 20


Falcons 17

St. Louis @ Detroit

Detroit -3


The Sam Bradford express heads out on the road to take on the winless Detroit Lions. Earlier I talked about Bradford being the real deal and I think is the game thats going to cement that in a lot of peoples minds. Both the Lions and the Rams have terrible pass defenses and the Lions have the seemingly better set of weapons with Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew, but Sam Bradford will overcome that on the road to lead the Rams to victory in a minor upset. I expect something close to 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for the OU product.

Rams 31


Lions 27

NY Giants @ Houston

Pick Em

The Giants are coming in hot after a demolition of the Bears on Sunday night with a marvelous 10 sack performance by their defense while the Texans were one play away from overtime against the Raiders. One good that came out that game is Arian Foster getting back on track to the tune of  131 yards on a meager 16 carries. The Giants also got their running game back on track with Ahmad Bradshaw putting together 129 yards and a touchdown. He would have had two if he held onto the ball instead of watching himself in the jumbo tron but that’s for another time. However with all that ink being devoted to the prospective running games I think this is going to be game where both teams end up airing it out. However with no Andre Johnson and a revitalized Giants pass rush I think big blue comes out on top.

Giants 27

Texans 20

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis -8.5

This is the week the Chiefs are brought back down to earth from their undefeated high. The Colts just lost a game they couldn’t afford to loss against the Jags putting them at 0-2 in their division and if they don’t get things righted quickly they’ll be looking at a wild card berth. The Chiefs have gotten here on the back of their running game, special teams, and a defense that’s solid enough to keep them in the games. The Chiefs formula to win this game is pretty simple run the ball and keep it out of Peyton Manning’s hands. Keep time of possession in their favor and limit the Colts opportunities. The problem is we’ve seen that same formula fail when executed to near perfection. The Dolphins had the ball for 45 minutes of the game last year against the Colts; they ran 84 plays to the colts 35 and still lost the game. I doubt the Chiefs will execute as well as the Dolphins, but I’m pretty sure they’ll still lose like them.

Colts 31

Chiefs 17

Green Bay @ Washington

Green Bay- 3

Aaron Rodgers and crew on the road against a Skins team that just pulled the upset in honor of Captain Campbell’s soup himself, I have a feeling that this is the week the Packers put together a blow out against a solid opponent. The Redskins got beat at home pretty solidly by the Rams because they couldn’t stop a passing attack lead by Sam Bradford. I don’t think they’ll do any better against Aaron Rodgers. The question for me is how could the Packers not make a trade for Marshawn Lynch, a team with super bowl aspirations has to make that move because John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson clearly aren’t going to get it done.  However with that being said the Packers lack of running game doesn’t hurt them this week as the beat the Skins soundly.

Green Bay 38

Skins 27

New Orleans @ Arizona

New Orleans -6.5

Fun Fact. Max Hall hates Utah

This seems like a pretty easy call for a New Orleans win. Even after coming off a bad performance against the Panthers they managed to still win the game. New Orleans has managed to scrape out several tough wins this year despite their previously explosive offense not being anywhere to be found. Arizona on the other hand just got blown out by San Diego in a 31 point game that wasn’t even that close. The Cardinals are starting an undrafted rookie Max Hall this week after finally having enough of the Derek Anderson experience. You can't ask more from your an undrafted rookie QB than to expect him to get a win against the world champs in his first start and he won't.

Saints 31

Cardinals 17

Tennessee @ Dallas

Dallas -6.5

Tennessee lost a heart breaker of a game to the Broncos last week as we talked about earlier. The Cowboys are coming off a win in a must win game against the Texans the presumably righted the ship in big D. Will we have another appearance by Roy Williams in the Dallas passing attack? Will Chris Johnson continue to be marginally effective? He’s being held to 3.8 yards a carry almost 2 yards lower than his 5.6 average of last year.  The Cowboys defense has been pretty strong against the run this year holding opponents to 80 yards and the Titans have only won games where Chris Johnson eclipses the 100 yard mark. This seems like a perfect combination for a Dallas win at home.

Cowboys 27

Titans 20

San Diego @ Oakland

San Diego -5.5

The Raiders have lost 13 consecutive times to the Chargers, the longest such streak in divisional play. I don’t see any reason why that streak ends this week. Bruce Gradkowski is coming off two monstrous hits in the previous game against the Texans which would have taken a quarterback with less toughness out of the game. However you don’t want your QB taking hits like that no matter how tough he is. Once again the Raiders can’t stop anybody running the football and this seems like the perfect week for Ryan Matthews to have a breakout game against a porous Raider run D. The Raiders always seem to play the Chargers closer than the final score indicates but always end up falling apart at the end. I don’t see that script changing this week.

Chargers 31

Raiders 24

Philadelphia @ San Francisco

Pick em

Kevin Kolb finally gets his chance to be a starter for the Philadelphia Eagles too bad he’s only keeping the seat warm for Michael Vick. While this may be a bad scenario for the Eagles wins wise this might be the perfect opportunity for Kevin Kolb to increase his trade value for a possible off season swap. The 49’ers on the other hand are still winless however with the terrible division that is the NFC west a win here and they’re right back in the division race. I’ve picked the 49’ers several times before because they just seem to have too much talent to be playing this poorly and I have to admit I’ve been suckered in again. I just can’t believe that they’ll go 0-5, at home, against a Kevin Kolb lead Eagles team.

49’ers 17

Eagles 13

Minnesota @ NY Jets

NY Jets -4

Best Touchdown dance EVER

Monday night games this year have been pretty damn good, or at least seemed like they were going to be pretty damn good in the upcoming week. The return of Randy Moss to Minnesota, Moss Revis 2: This time it’s for blood, and Brett Favre revisited his initial post retirement hang out. All of these things come together along with what a lot of people thought might be a super bowl preview. Mark Sanchez has strung together 3 consecutive great games and now the spotlights on him in what I think will be a bit of quarterback duel. Brett Favre loves throwing up 50/50 passes when he’s under pressure except in weeks 1-3 he was throwing those up to Bernard Berrian……. And now he’s throwing them to Randy Moss, the best 50/50 pass catcher of all time. I think this just might make Favre look a little better. Combine that with a fired up Randy Moss who’s playing to shove it in the face of Bill Belichick and the entire Pats organization and you have a recipe for a Minnesota win coming out of the bye week.

Vikings 30

Jets 24

Tuesday Morning Week 4 Recap.

Week 4 Predictions Heads up 10-4

Week 4 predictions against the spread 8-6

Record so far 27-18

This week was a week of both upsets and blowouts.  Jacksonville topples Indy at home, Cleveland beats the Bengals at home, and the Ravens squeak by at Heinz field. On the other end of the Ledger the Bills, Dolphins, and Cardinals all got blasted. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a weirder beat down than the one the Pats put on the Dolphins Monday night.  The Pats had 265 yards of total offense two offensive touchdowns yet won 41-14. I don’t think you can count on 3 picks, 2 blocked kicks and touchdowns from your defense and special teams every week. That’s probably the least telling of any game this week. But without further a due let’s get into some quick hits.

Maybe I should follow my intuition more often

T.J. Housyamamma yeah I spelled it right

I only really had a feeling about two games going into last week. I felt that that Donovan Mcnabb wasn’t going to lose against the Eagles in his homecoming and I felt that The Ravens would somehow find a way to beat the Steelers. Those were two of my correct picks in my best week of the year so far. The Eagles game was flukier in that Michael Vick got hurt and was followed by Kevin Kolb doing his best Mark Sanchez week one impression with check downs galore. The Ravens game was just a tight game throughout with Joe Flacco finding T.J. Housyamamma in the end zone with a few seconds left. That win was even more impressive because the Ravens were without probably their most dynamic player in Ray Rice for the duration of the contest. This win to me says more about the Ravens than it does the Steelers. The Steelers we’re already guaranteed a winning record without Big Ben which was more than almost any of us expected while the Ravens needed the win to avoid going 0-2 in divisional play. The Redskins on the other hand didn’t really tell us that much. Michael Vick was hurt on a touchdown run that got called back on a dubious holding penalty and the Eagles offense seemed to be getting into a groove against a suspect Washington defense, luckily for them he was knocked out of the game. Enter a seemingly unprepared Kevin Kolb who didn’t take advantage of two of the most explosive wide outs in the game in Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. This development is even more interesting because it seemed bound to happen. Vick takes too much punishment not to eventually miss some time and now it seems he’ll probably be out a month or so giving Kevin Kolb an opportunity to get the fans back on his side, and we’ve already seen how fickle Andy Reid can be.

The Chargers might be really scary good

A friend of mine put up a pretty telling stat earlier today. The Chargers are the first team since 1987 to lead the league in total offense and defense in week 5.  So then why are they 2-2? Well obviously special teams plays a huge role in that. You give up 3 special teams touchdowns through 4 weeks and you’re going to be in trouble no matter who you are.  The Chargers passing attack is as dangerous as ever and they seem to have found something in Mike Tolbert to compliment their 1^st year back Ryan Matthews.  On the defensive side of the ball their second in the league in interceptions with 7 and have 3 fumble recoveries which  only gives them a plus 1 in the turnover category. Their special teams defense is part of the problem kick return wise they’re not as bad as I thought, even with the 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns they’re still 24th in kick off defense however in punt return coverage they're 31^st one away from dead last. However upon closer inspection who have the Chargers played so far. Kansas City, Jacksonville, Arizona, and Seattle. Maybe there’s one playoff team out of the bunch….maybe. The Chargers should definitely be 3-1 or 4-0. The fact that they’re not speaks more to their makeup as a team than their offensive and defensive rankings. The Chargers are always the team that scares the pants off everyone during the regular season only to fall apart during the playoffs. Maybe that was an LT thing, if it was we’ll probably find out this year. This is firmly Phillip Rivers team now and it will go as far as he takes it, so while he may have taken pot shots at L.T. with Antonio Gates right now they’re not looking too good as LT is tearing up the league with a 3-1 Jets team while their Chargers are off to their normal slow start. However it’s only October and the bulk of the season is yet to be played consider this story still under construction.

Bears play game without offensive line…..results mixed

He's still in Jay Cutlers nightmares

 Which is honestly a smart move, sometimes you have to concede the battle to win the war, the war being getting a playoff spot and their chances of that are much greater after not having Jay Cutler play that second half.  The questions coming out of this game are twofold. 1: Is this a condemnation of the entire Bears offensive line. I remember a game a few years back where Osi Umenyiora got six sacks on Winston Justice in a single game and the Eagles still managed to make the playoffs that year.  So all isn’t lost as a Bears fan this might just have been one of those games where everything didn’t go according to plan. The second question coming out of this game is about the Giants. They’ve had two games of absolutely dominant defense and two games of mediocre to absolutely terrible D. The question is which team is the real one. The one that sacked the bears 10 times and held them to 110 total offensive yards, or is it the team that gave up 410 yards to the Colts while not being able to breathe on Peyton Manning? When we know the answer to that question we’ll know whether the Giants have a chance at making some noise in the playoffs. 

Week 4 Preview

Week 4: the beginning of the bye weeks. We’re about to hit to hit the quarter mark on this football season. At this point things are starting to become a bit clearer. There are still a lot of teams we don’t know everything about the really good teams and the really bad teams are starting to come into focus. A few teams are looking to really get a leg up in their division this week with the Jets and the Bears looking to get to 3-0 in division play. The best game is either Baltimore v Pittsburgh or Miami v New England either way I don’t think you can go wrong, both should be tightly contested division games. A couple of notes then onto the picks

Special Teams are still 1/3 of the game

We all like to talk about how important special teams are and last week was a perfect example of that. 3games were won or lost based on special teams. If Sebastian Janikowski or Garrett Hartley can make chip shots both the Saints and the Raiders leave last week with a win. Leon Washington single handedly lead the Seahawks to victory or if you’re a Chargers fan they’re lack of special teams coverage lead them straight into ruin. The Saints went out and signed old faithful John Carney but it doesn’t look like there are any saviors on the way for the AFC West, so the Chargers and Raiders will have to figure this out on their own.

You have to pass the ball and stop the pass

The old Football axiom has always been being able to run the ball and stop the run but it looks like it’s about time for that to change. There have been 5 400 yard passers in the NFL through 3 weeks and there are 2 guys with over 1,000 yards 3 weeks into the season. The top 3 defenses in pass completion percentage are 2-1, 2-1, and 3-0. This league more than ever is about being able to pass the ball with a dynamic offense and being able to slow down the other teams passing attack.

Arizona is by far the worst 2-1 team in the league

The Cardinals are terrible they’ve beaten the Ram’s and the Raiders neither convincingly actually they tried their hardest to give the Raiders the game last week. They had two special teams’ turnovers in their own red zone however Oakland only turned them into 6 points. The Raiders are driving down the field to win the game and they give up a 40 yard pass interference call to get Oakland to their own 8. Where they proceed to miss a 32 yard chip shot. Arizona couldn’t have tried much harder to lose that game, Oakland just refused to win.

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Atlanta -7

Seriously, he was the 49'ers offensive coordinator

Atlanta might have had their NFC North coming out party last week going into the Superdome and beating the champs or they could have just gotten lucky when Garrett Hartley sliced an absolute gimme from 29 yards out. The Niners on the other hand don’t present us with many questions; they’re just flat out terrible. The firing of Jimmy Raye isn’t going to solve all the problems they have and more than likely it will create more. Don't get me wrong Jimmy Raye was god awful, he looked like they picked a random old guy from the stands as their offensive coordinator and told him to just pick plays that looked neat. However name me the last time a team fired their offensive coordinator mid season and their offense improved. This game seems sort of reminiscent of the Cardinals going into the Georgia Dome in week 2 and getting absolutely spanked. If the Falcons want to establish themselves as a legit contender they have to crush the bad teams, especially at home I think they do it once again this week.

Falcons 38

49’ers 17

New York Jets @ Buffalo

No Line

The Jets are coming off back to back wins over divisional rivals which wipes the ugly Ravens loss out of our collective memories. They’re offense is starting to click behind the Passing of Mark Sanchez and the running of….. Ladainian Tomlinson. I have to admit I thought he was absolutely washed up coming into the season, so far he’s been the best running back on the Jets by far and they’re rewarding him with the lion’s share of the carries. The Buffalo Bills also proved me wrong last week, they didn’t get the win but Ryan Fitzpatrick was without a doubt a spark plug for their offense. He once again faces a sub par passing defense in the Jets who will once again be without their lonely island. As much as I would like to root for the Harvard guy to get the Bills their first win I don’t think it’s in the cards this week

Jets 31

Bills 24

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Cincinnati -3

Cincinnati keeps managing to win despite the absolutely terrible play from Carson Palmer I talked about how bad he was prior to last week and he didn’t disappoint putting up a 200 yard 2 interception gem at a 50% clip. If you watched that game you saw the Panthers drop at least 2 sure fire interceptions. However the Bengal’s are lucky enough to have what seems like a solid defense. Outside of week 1 they’ve put together back to back good performances. The Browns just got through testing the Ravens a lot more than anyone expected I think they’ll give the Bengal’s more than they bargained for, but they’re terrible pass defense was their undoing. This week it will make Carson Palmer look just good enough to lead the Bengal’s to victory.

Bengal’s 17

Browns 13

Detroit @ Green Bay

No line

Green Bay is coming off giving the Bears an absolute gift on Monday night. We already talked about all the turnovers earlier this week, but they still have to clean their game up. Despite losing the game Aaron Rodgers was absolutely stellar and he’s going up against a Lions pass defense that has only had success against…. Brett Favre. Yikes. So expect big things from him this week. Last Monday showed me something about the Packers defense, they need to be playing with a lead otherwise they’re not quite the same playing from behind. Luckily for them they’ll be playing with a lead this week which should allow their rushers to pin their ears back and get after Shaun Hill. Combine that with what looks like an absent Jahvid Best and things don’t look good for the Lions

Packers 27

Lions 13

Carolina @ New Orleans

New Orleans -13.5

Carolina might be the worst team in the league.  However something that hasn’t been talked about is that the Saints might not be as good as we thought. They’ve only beaten a terrible 49’ers team and a bad Vikings team and they didn’t beat either of them convincingly. They miss the dynamic element Reggie Bush added to their backfield and to top it off they might be without Pierre Thomas this weekend. Carolina hasn’t been able to get their running game going the main reason being that they haven’t tried; only giving DeAngelo Williams a measly 10 carries last week in a game that was close throughout. They have to change that if they want to keep this game close I think they do. However I don’t think it’s enough, the Saints might not be as good as we thought but they’re better than the Panthers.

Saints 34

Panthers 20

Yet another reason I like Joe Flacco

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -1.5

Pittsburgh has definitely been the talk of the past week. Everyone has pretty much anointed them as the best team in football up to this point, while Baltimore comes in under the radar after a game that ended up being more competitive than we all thought against the Browns. I don’t know why but something about this game tells me to pick the Ravens. Maybe it’s Joe Flacco finally getting things going. Maybe it’s the fact that the Steelers are a blitzing defense and Joe’s terrific against the blitz. Maybe it’s the Ravens needing a division win after losing to Cincy in week 2. I don’t quite know why but I just feel like the Ravens are going to send the Steelers back to Big Ben with a loss.

Ravens 17

Steelers 13

Seattle @ St. Louis

Seattle -1.5

St. Louis surprised a lot of people last week with a tough win on the road against a game Redskins team. They just flat outplayed them, and they outplayed without their best player Steven ‘Action’ Jackson for the 2^nd half. I mean look if you had told a Rams fan before the game that Kenneth Darby is going to get 14 carries I think they would have predicted a loss, instead it was a 14 point win. I don’t know whether Sam Bradford is legit but the Rams sure think he is. Once again they put the ball in his hands giving him 37 attempts. He’s 7^th in the league in attempts averaging 39 per game. The rams are going against the traditional ‘protect your young QB’ style and letting him learn on the job and frankly I like it. If you don’t have confidence in your QB throwing the ball don’t draft him. The Seahawks on the other hand seem to be the classic good at home bad on the road team. 2 home blowouts, and 1 road blowout going the other way. Well this week they’re on the road so I expect Sam Bradford to notch back to back wins with or without Steven Jackson.

Rams 24

Seahawks 17

Denver @ Tennessee

Tennessee -6.5

Denver and Tennessee are two teams going in opposite directions, Denver coming off a loss to the Colts at 1-2 while Tennessee is coming in off a win against the Giants at 2-1. It seems as though Chris Johnson won’t be getting to 2500 yards rushing but he also won’t be hit with the notorious 400+ touch slump. He’s still chugging away just like last year breaking a big run every game along with a touchdown or two. The Broncos on the other hand are firmly Josh McDaniel’s team now, and that means they can no longer plug any running back in and run the ball but they can throw it around the yard with a paltry assembling of talent. Kyle Orton is 10 yards behind Phillip Rivers for the league lead in passing yards and is on pace for a 5700 yard season, only through 3 games in but still impressive. This shapes up to be classic battle of opposing style the main difference being the Titans have 7^th ranked total defense and are 5^th against the pass while the Broncos are a less impressive 18^th in total defense. The Broncos just got blasted on the road in Seattle I think they keep it closer this week but still fall.

Titans 20

Broncos 17

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Indianapolis -7

Indy is beginning to look like the team we expected, which is basically the same team they’ve been the past 3 or 4 years. Peyton Manning demands greatness of his wide outs, that’s what turns a guy like Austin Collie into the #1 WR in the league stats wise, and why somebody is probably picking up Blair White in your fantasy league(Quick side note: it always seems that the Colts lead the NFL in white receivers they always have at least 1.)The Jags on the other hand after their opening week win against the Broncos have been terrible. They’ve gotten blown out in back to back weeks and David Garrard is playing terrible and he might be worried about getting benched; if their back up Luke McCown hadn’t torn his ACL. The Colts swept the Jags last year in the division play although they only lost by 2 and 4 points. I think with a gimpy Mojo and a struggling QB they aren’t able to keep it as close this time.

Colts 31

Jags 17

Houston @ Oakland

Houston -3.5

Oakland dominated pretty much every phase of the game against the Cardinals and still managed to lose. That’s the mark of a bad team. Houston is coming off a loss against the Cowboys that was actually closer then the box score would lead you to believe. The Raiders have had a semblance of offensive balance with the insertion of Bruce Gradkowski, what they haven’t had is the ability to convert this balance into points. They score at an absolutely putrid 23% clip in the red zone. The Texans could never put things together against the Cowboys last week, Andre Johnson wasn’t quite himself and without him they’re offense isn’t nearly as dynamic. Nnamdi Asomugha is coming off a pretty good game against Larry Fitzgerald holding him to only 2 catch 26 yard game although one of the catches was for a touchdown. The problem is the Raiders still can’t stop the run but without Duane Brown the Texans can’t run or pass as effectively as they did in the first two weeks. They’re still effective enough to get the win however

Texans 23

Raiders 17

Washington @ Philadelphia

Philadelphia -6.5

They always knew it would come to this

Here it is, probably the most anticipated NFC East match up of the year. Donovan Mcnabb returns to the place where they boo Santa Claus yet he expects cheers. I hope he gets em but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Philly fans are about as fickle as they get, they turned on Kevin Kolb so fast it must have given Mcnabb a chuckle or two to see it happen to someone else. Now they’re Michael Vicks team and he’s wasted no time in taking the reins and leading them to back to back victories on the strength of his legs but more so his arm. His newly discovered pocket awareness and accuracy have made him even more deadly than he was way back when in 2006. The Redskins seemed like a pretty tough team after beating the Cowboys and then giving the Texans all they can handle, but then they lost to the Rams…. by 2 touchdowns. However something tells me to throw out the records here because there’s no way Mcnabb goes into Philly with an opportunity to shove it in that organization and all those fans faces and lays an egg. However this is the same guy that puked on the field during the super bowl so maybe he doesn’t handle pressure all that well. I just don’t think he lets a chance for revenge pass him by. Skins in an upset.

Redskins 24

Eagles 20

Arizona @ San Diego

San Diego -9

The Chargers just can’t seem to get out of their own way; once again they start the year off digging themselves a hole. This time it seems you can put most of the blame squarely on the Chargers special teams who have given up 3 touchdowns in 3 games. Giving up 2 kickoff returns for touchdowns in the same game is inexcusable. I would say Phillip Rivers was out of his mind last week with 455 yards, but he’s just that good it seems. However one bad omen for them is that LaRod Stephens-Howling (Doesn’t that sound like a law firm?) had a kickoff return for touchdown against the Raiders last week. The problem is the Cardinals are just terrible and they tried as hard as they could to give that game away to the Raiders the Raiders just refused to take it. The Chargers won’t be so obliging.

Chargers 27

Cardinals 13

Chicago @ NY Giants

Pick Em

After one of the worst looking wins I’ve seen in a while the Bears head into the Meadow lands looking to keep their record unblemished while the Giants look to wipe away the memories of the past two weeks by giving the Bears their first loss. The Giants were in a close game with the Titans until an Ahmad Bradshaw fumble on the Tennessee 5 yard line completely sapped all their momentum. The Bears on the other hand took advantage of a lack of discipline from the Packers. Well the good news for them is that the Giants aren’t that disciplined either as they had 11 penalties for 86 yards against the Titans. Even more troubling for the G-Men is their inability to stop anyone on defense. This bodes well for Bears offense looking to get back into a groove after struggling against a solid Packers D.

Bears 27

Giants 20

New England @ Miami

New England -1

The Law firm of Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis

Once again AFC East teams battle it out in prime time except this time it’s Monday night as opposed to Sunday night. Both teams are coming off divisional shoot outs. The Pats won theirs against the immortal known as Ryan Fitzpatrick while the Fins came up short against the Sanchize. The thing that stuck out for me from that Miami Sunday night game is that Brandon Marshall is one of the top 3 wide receivers in football and the Dolphins have a solid pass rusher in Cameron Wake the problem is you can run right at him. I watched Dustin Keller seal him off several times on edge runs. If he’s getting sealed by a tight end not know for his blocking that doesn’t bode well for him. This may not seem like much especially when talking about a passing offense like the Patriots but they ran the ball effectively last week with Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis (Another Law firm) to the tune of 200 net yards rushing. If the Patriots can run the ball that makes their passing game that much more effective and Tom Brady doesn’t need any help. This game will probably be another shoot out thanks to the porous Pats defense but the Dolphins will once again be on the wrong end.

Pats 38

Dolphins 31