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There's been a lot going on with Screen and Roll Out in the past week or so. We're back working full time so the posts will be just as frequent but not quite as timely. As such I couldn't update before that dreadful Thursday night game but I don't think I missed all that much. However Look out for a NBA commentary in the season after the 1st month or so which should be happening the next week. Now with that bit of book keeping out of the way lets get into the Week 11 picks.
Baltimore @ Carolina
Baltimore -10.5
The early games this week aren't very inspiring to say the least. Baltimore @ Carolina should be an easy bounce back game for Baltimore after their disappointing loss to the Falcons last week. Carolina just got waxed by the Bucs and things don’t get any easier against this Ravens team. It looks like another loss in what will probably be John Fox’s last year in Carolina.
Ravens 27
Carolina 10
Buffalo @ Cincinnati
Cincinnati -6
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| I doubt they're still this happy |
A game between two teams whose season’s are already over. Buffalo can try to hang their hat on the fact they’ve been a competitive team but at the end of the day they’re still 1-8 with 1 win over the Lions. The Bengals came into this year with high expectations after the playoffs last year and seemingly improving in the offseason. All those expectations have come crashing down with 6 consecutive losses after a 2-1 start to the season. At this point I can see this Cincinnati team beginning to implode especially with the personalities of Ocho and T.O. in the fold. Carson Palmer continues his spiral to irrelevance with a loss to the Bills at home.
Buffalo 17
Cincinnati 13
Detroit @ Dallas
Dallas -6.5
*Gasp* Could the Dallas Cowboys not be the worst team in the NFL anymore? After finally showing signs of life after ditching Wade Phillips with a win over the Giants on the road they might have finally escaped NFL purgatory. In their place might be the Detroit Lions, they seemed to be finally putting it together with young emerging pieces on both offense and defense however with the reinjury of Matthew Stafford their franchise QB seems to be of the glass variety. Not only is this his 3rd major injury in two NFL seasons it’s his second separation of his shoulder which seems like a bad omen for the future especially at the QB position. I think both back up QB’s are mediocre guys surrounded by a solid nucleus of talent however I like the Dallas defense I saw last week against the Giants; since they were actually there against the Giants for the first time in weeks.
Dallas 24
Detroit 20
Cleveland @ Jacksonville
Jacksonville -1.5
The battle of the two surprisingly competitive teams, every year it seems Jacksonville ends up being 9-7 10-6ish and makes it into the playoffs to everyone’s chagrin. They’re a team that nobody really wants to watch yet they manage to be competitive more often than not. Quick question, who has the second highest QB rating in the NFL? That’s right David Garrard. On the other side of the field you have Colt McCoy who is 2-2 as a starter with his only losses being to the Jets and the Steelers. He’s definitely more of a legit NFL quarterback than I thought he would be, but despite those two wins his game hasn’t traveled all that well.
Jaguars 17
Browns 13
Arizona @ Kansas City
Kansas City -8
Todd Haley might still be a little steamed about the blowout loss last week to the Broncos but he has to move on in a hurry because the Chiefs can’t afford to lose a game like this in a tight division race. This is a Haley’s first game against his previous team the Cardinals since he’s became a head coach. However this Cardinals team is without Kurt Warner or Matt Leinhart instead being lead by Derek Anderson. Arizona got handled fairly easily at home last week against the Seahawks, but I think they match up much better with the Chiefs than they did the Seahawks. The problem is the Cardinals passing game isn’t quite good enough to expose the Chiefs, especially on the road.
Chiefs 24
Cardinals 17
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Green Bay -3.5
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| This is what ESPN does to you when you're 3-6 |
Perhaps the final meeting between Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers, sadly it won’t be the big game we expected prior to the season as the Vikings are pretty much out of the playoff race at this point with a 3-6 record. The Packers had their bye last week and come into this game needing a win to keep pace with the still surprising Bears who pushed themselves to 7-3 with a win in an absolutely terrible Thursday night football game. I see Aaron Rodgers going 2-0 against Favre this year and officially putting the stake through the heart of the Vikings season and hopefully the tenure of Brad Childress.
Green Bay 23
Vikings 17
Houston @ NY Jets
NY Jets -7
Houston can’t stop anybody through the air; they're the worst pass defense in the NFL by almost 20 yards giving up over 300 per game. Combine that with a Jets defense that hasn’t given up more than 23 points all season and I don’t think Houston will be able to keep up with the amount of points their defense will give up. I think this is the week that Shonn Green overtakes L.T. as their starting running back and Dustin Keller gets back into his early season form.
Jets 27
Texans 17
Oakland @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh -7
The Raiders are 4-1 in their past 5 games shaking off a 2-4 start to their year to get to 5-4 and into first place in the AFC West with the Chiefs loss last week. However in order to maintain that first place spot their going to have to win some tough games in their last 6 with games against the Steelers, Colts, and Chargers still remaining. The Steelers were seemingly exposed last week by the Patriots as a team that’s extremely vulnerable to the short passing game, and as a team whose offensive line is in shambles. While the Raiders lack the personnel to attack with the short passing game, their defense is 2nd in the league in sacks which should bode well for them against a banged up Steelers O-line. Where this game will be decided is in the secondary of both teams, if Oakland can slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack with their pass rush and back 7 they’ll have a chance on the road, but if Mike Wallace gets behind them the Steelers will pull out a close one. Right now the Raiders give up the second fewest passing yards per game, and the second lowest completion percentage and I don’t see Big Ben getting enough time to get the deep ball off in this one. Raiders win a close one.
Raiders 17
Steelers 13
Washington @ Tennessee
Tennessee -7
After the debacle that was the Monday night game for Washington I don’t know what to say about this Redskins team. I do know what to say about Randy Moss however, I think he’s done. After watching him play Miami at half speed pretty much the entire way I think he’s finally decided to stop playing hard period. Even with no Laron Landry I still don’t think he makes the big plays we used to expect from him. Tennessee will win this game but it will be on the legs of Chris Johnson and by the other players in the passing game who get more room because of the space Randy Moss opens up.
Titans 20
Redskins 17
Seattle @ New Orleans
New Orleans -12
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| "Don't worry Reggie your game checks will be even bigger in the pros" |
Seattle finally got back on the winning track after consecutive blow out losses handing the Cardinals a rare home loss. Matt Hasselbeck and Mike Williams are probably the best QB/WR tandem in the NFC West which says a lot about the state of the NFC West but also a lot about how far Mike Williams has come. However they still haven’t come far enough to beat the Saints at home coming off a bye week. Especially when they’ll get back arguably their second most important offensive player back this week in Reggie Bush.
Saints 27
Seahawks 17
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
Tampa Bay -3.5
Troy Smith has reinvigorated the 49’ers offense with his ability to throw the deep ball combined with his general competence at the position. The 49’ers have put together back to back wins and if they were to win this week they’d be seemingly back in the NFC West race. Josh Freeman doesn't think thats going to happen. Tampa Bay is the classic team who beats the teams you expect them to beat and pretty much no one else, and at this point in the season I expect them to beat the 49'ers and I don't think they'll disappoint.
Bucs 13
49'ers 10
Atlanta @ St. Louis
Atlanta -3.5
After a sterling performance on Thursday night against the Ravens at home the dirty birds hit the road to face the Rams. The Rams lost a disappointing game to the 49’ers in overtime but would be right back at .500 if they were to beat this Falcons team. Unfortunately for them it’s not going to happen, even though the Falcons are a better home team than road team, they’re only road losses were to the Eagles and the Steelers. The Falcons have been on fire offensively having scored over 30 points in their past 3 games, I think that streak ends but I think they keep on winning.
Falcons 20
Rams 13
Indianapolis @ New England
New England -3.5
Outside of Michael Vick there aren’t any QB’s I love watching more than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Both of these guys are absolute masters of the craft and orchestrate their offense no matter who they have lining up next to them. Tom Brady took Jabar Gaffney and a number of castoffs to the AFC Championship a few years back while Peyton is turning Jacob Tamme and Mike Hart into household names this year. These guys show you how important the position of QB is in football, if you have a great QB you can piecemeal a lot of other things around them and still be a good team. However I think that’s exactly the problem for the Colts, they’re just a good team. They’re too banged up on offense and their defense has a lot of trouble stopping any real potent scoring threat. I think Tom Brady puts a stop to the recent trend of Peyton dominating this matchup. Also as jacked up as Brady seemed last week I can’t imagine him being any less amped for this game.
Pats 31
Colts 27
NY Giants @ Philadelphia
Philadelphia -3
The Sunday Night platter this weekend is absolutely fantastic with this NFC East showdown between the Philadelphia Vicks and the Giants. Michael Vick put up the performance of a lifetime last week while the Giants had a performance I’m sure they’d rather forget against the Cowboys. I honestly don’t know who’s going to stop Michael Vick at this point, part of me thinks he has to come up short sometime but I don’t think it will be this week at home against a Giants defense that was exposed by Jon Kitna. The Michael Vick experience continues its rapid ascension towards the MVP summit.
Eagles 27
Giants 20
Denver @ San Diego
San Diego -10
Denver not only upset Kansas City on Sunday they Oakland Raider’d them going off for some 49 points getting redemption on the wrong team for their home blow out a few weeks ago. They also created a little more AFC West rivalry with the Chiefs by not easing up at all in the 4th and being a little too jovial on the sidelines for the taste of Todd Haley. San Diego seems to be doing what they do every year have everyone write them off before they get on a 6 or 7 game winning streak that puts them right back in the playoffs and right back on everyone’s list of teams they don’t want to play. I hate to say it but I see it happening again this year. In a QB dual between Phillip Rivers and Kyle Orton I take Phillip Rivers and I don’t even think about it.
Chargers 31
Broncos 24
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