Just when you thought it was safe: Week 12 Preview

I'm truly a mad man, two articles in one day. Enjoy the Sunday picks on Saturday night, or read them and laugh as my predictions fail miserably during Sunday's game. Either way enjoy.

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Atlanta – 2

Expect some of this on Sunday

This game is a battle between the top of the 2^nd tier QB’s. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are trying to step up into the top tier of NFL quarterbacks, but for them to do that they’ll not only have to generate success during the NFL season but get their first post season wins. However this isn’t the post season, its week 12 and both of these teams are still fighting for playoff positioning in an incredibly competitive NFC. The Packers are trying to establish themselves as a team to be reckoned with and a win against a Falcons team who’s undefeated at the Georgia Dome would do it. Looking at this game and as well as the Falcons have played at home I honestly can’t give a reason why they’d lose this game. The thing is Aaron Rodgers finally slayed the Brett Favre Dragon last week in a coach killing season crushing 31-3 beat down, and I think a win like that could catapult Aaron Rodgers into the stratosphere and I think he wins here on his accent into the Brady, Manning, Vick tier.

Packers 31

Falcons 27

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo

Pittsburgh – 6

Pittsburgh did what an elite team is supposed to do and that’s handle business at home as they absolutely blasted what I thought would be a game Oakland team. Now they face Buffalo this week before a huge AFC North showdown on the road against the Ravens next week. This has the feeling of a classic trap game, a good team goes on the road against a team that isn’t very good but can take advantage of the good team’s weakness while the good team is looking ahead to a big game it has the next week. I think the Steelers are good, but I don’t think they’re good enough to avoid getting caught looking ahead to the Ravens especially while facing a very solid passing game lead by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Steve Johnson. I think the Steelers win, by on a last second field goal by their recently signed kicker.

Steelers 23

Buffalo 20

Carolina @ Cleveland

Cleveland – 9.5

He's like an even worse Carson Palmer

The fact that the spread is this high leads me to believe I’ve been given some bad information. The depth chart I’m looking at shows that Jake Delhomme is going to start this game, and that guy is terrible. He’s like Carson Palmer without any of the talent that Carson Palmer still has. He’s almost bad enough to make me pick the Panthers except the Browns still have Peyton Hillis and that guy is an absolute stud. So hopefully they can just hand the ball off to him 30 or 40 times to avoid the eventual Jake Delhomme interception onslaught. Browns in an ugly one.

Browns 17

Panthers 10

Tennessee @ Houston

Texans – 6

The Titans seem to be absolutely falling apart at the seams. Vince Young is going on injured reserve and more than likely has played his last game as a Tennessee Titan. Randy Moss is an absolute cadaver on the field and he has 1 catch in two games as a Titan and 2 catches over his last 3 games.  With all of that happening I still had to think a good bit about who to pick in this game because the Texans pass defense is just so unbelievably bad that I could be tempted to pick Rusty Smith against them. However I can’t despite how bad they’ve been and the back to back heartbreaking losses they’ve suffered I have to think the Texans will score too much for Rusty Smith to keep up.

Texans 24

Titans 17

Jacksonville @ NY Giants

NY Giants – 7

Earlier in the year I had the feeling that the Giants were an elite team and now they sit here at 6-4 and looking at the teams they’ve beaten I don’t know if you can count an elite team among them. The closet to an elite team they’ve beaten is a 7-3 Bears team and despite that record I still just can’t quite believe in that team. The Jaguars are a lot more comparable to the Giants than would appear, and at least they have a victory against an elite team beating the Colts at home in week 4. The question it all comes down to is which David Garrard shows up. He’s been absolutely lights out in victories and not even an NFL quality quarterback in their losses. I think Mike Sims Walker comes back and David Garrard has another outstanding performance.

Jaguars 27

Giants 24

Minnesota @ Washington

Minnesota -1

The first game of the Leslie Frazier era and after watching the Cowboys come out and play hard for Jason Garrett these past few weeks I can’t help but expect the same from the Vikings especially since most of their players apparently like Frazier. I still don’t like much of what you get from the Redskins; their win over a listless Tennessee team didn't really tell me anything I didn’t know about them, they can beat teams that are in even more disarray than them. I think the firing of Childress took some of the madness out of the Minnesota locker room and hopefully they can translate that to a solid performance on the field.

Minnesota 24

Washington 20

Miami @ Oakland

Oakland – 2.5

Oakland got absolutely hammered last week in Pittsburgh and after it Tom Cable confirmed that the QB for the Miami game would be Jason Campbell. Now for the past few days all the news has been that Bruce Gradkowski will actually be the starter. It seems like the move a desperate team and that’s never a good sign. However as desperate as that move appears you would think the Dolphins would have to be even more desperate after that Thursday night disaster of a shut out at home against the Bears. I hope they try to at least run the football this week because if their game plan is to put it in the hands of Tyler Thigpen they can expect another loss, I sure do.

Raiders 17

Dolphins 10

Kansas City @ Seattle

Kansas City –2.5

Matt Hassleback as Brad Childress in Mustache: The Brad Childress Story

Seattle is the only team in the NFC West that’s at least at .500 and they play the AFC West leading Chiefs who just pasted the Cardinals at home. However this game is on the road and that’s where the Chiefs have struggled this year they've only managed to go 1-5 on the road with their only win coming against the Browns. Seattle on the other hand is 4-1 at home with their only loss being an absolute blow out to the Giants when they started Charlie Whitehurst. I think as long as they start the Bald Bomber known as Matt Hasselback the Seahawks will have a chance at Qwest field, I don’t know what it is but almost everyone struggles when they play there. Count the Chiefs in that category.

Seahawks 20

Chiefs 14

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore

Baltimore – 8

As said on a previous installment of Screen and Roll Out the Buccaneers are a team that beats the teams they’re supposed to beat and no one else. Well they’re not supposed to beat the Ravens.

Ravens 31

Bucs 24

Philadelphia @ Chicago

Philadelphia – 3

I’m sorry but week after week Chicago wins but I still feel the same way about them. I just can’t trust a team lead by Jay Cutler to be a legitimate threat for anything. If the Bears make the playoffs I can easily see Jay Cutler putting up a Jake Delhomme type 4 interception game in wild card weekend to the dismay of all the Chicago fans. The Chicago defense has been carrying this team all year, but I don’t think they’re good enough to carry them through the playoffs, however if they were able to shut down this Eagles attack I suppose I’d have to change my tune. I don’t count on having to do that though.

Eagles 23

Bears 13

St. Louis @ Denver

Denver - 4

"Josh this is why I cut my sleeves, so people know i don't have anything up them"

I think Denver coach Josh McDaniel just put the last nail in his coffin with his transfer of the New England spy gate methods over to Denver. After getting blown out last week the last thing Denver needed was some news like this. St. Louis is fighting for their playoff lives and they desperately need a road win to keep themselves afloat in the mediocre NFC West. I think they beat a Broncos team I think will quit on their lame duck coach pretty soon if not this week.

Rams 17

Broncos 16

San Diego @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis – 3

A great Sunday night game between the Colts and Chargers and with the Chargers on a roll and the Colts coming in struggling with not only injuries but with their play in general this seems like another win as the Chargers charge into the playoffs. Then you look on the sideline and Peyton Manning is still there and he’s still great and it’s going to be at night so it would violate a rule that I stole from Bill Simmons. Never bet against Peyton Manning at night. As much as I’d like to break that rule I just can’t do it, I don’t think Peyton is going to have back to back bad games no matter who he’s throwing to. After that 3 interception travesty last week he’ll rebound against a team that for the most part has owned him throughout his career.

Colts 31

Chargers 27

San Francisco @ Arizona

Pick em

In one of the worst Monday night games we’ve had in a while it’s a battle to decide which NFC West team’s playoff hope’s remain on life support. If either of these teams makes it into the playoffs they’ll be a one and done and it won’t even be a competitive one, but hey ya never know what could happen right?  After running off two straight under Troy Smith the niners were brought back down to earth hard by the Bucs last week, but somehow at 3-7 they’re still alive in their division race.  The Cardinals have lost 5 straight after a 3-2 start. The winner of this game will be the team that makes fewer mistakes and while both have terrible turnover ratios the 49’ers have been better about in the past few games

49’ers 17

Cardinals 13