Week 3 Preview

Looking back on my week 2 preview I sure did miss pretty badly on some things, but we’ll forget about all of those now as we forge ahead into a new week of predictions and prognostication. Since I gave a week 2 recap earlier in the week they’ll only be a few quips before we jump into the picks.

The best team in Texas is the Texans

Doesn’t that just seem right? I mean if you forget about the cowboys being America’s team and blah blah blah. How many team mascots are the residents of where the team resides? That seems absolutely genius, how could you not support a team whose mascot is you. The Texans stomp the Colts in week one with their rushing attack and have a miraculous 17 point comeback in the last 18 minutes of the second half against the Redskins on the arm of Matt Schaub. So now they come into week 3 with a battle against the cowboys to send the boys into 0-3 purgatory and plant their flag as the team of Texas for 2010. 

I apparently forgot the Colts are good

Shame on me for picking against the Colts. Those guys are really good and have been really good ever since Peyton Manning captain "of the you can’t grab the neck" express got there. (Check the video 15 seconds in) Eventually the Colts will stop being good, it happens to all dynasties eventually their stars fade and we move into a new era for the sport. The Colts however aren’t done with their era just yet, don’t let that week one beat down fool you, just because they won’t start this year 10-0 or 14-0 doesn’t mean they won’t end up where they want to be. The Super Bowl.

The 49’ers are sore losers

If you haven’t heard Frank Gore’s comments about their loss to the Saints you should really check em out. Here are some choice tidbits “They’re a good team, but they couldn’t handle us out there. They couldn’t handle us.”  “We whupped their behind up and down the field. They can’t stand up with us. And we beat ourselves for the second week in a row. We’ve got to change that.”.Um sorry to be the one to break the news to you Frank but you guys lost, they did handle you out there because they beat you. I don’t think you beat yourselves against the Seahawks I think you got spanked 31-6. But hey I’m sure all 31 of those were from you guys beating yourselves too.

Now onto 16 glances into the future

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Baltimore -10

After a pretty bad performance against the Bengals defense the Ravens get just the pick me up they need……the Cleveland Browns. For Browns fans things have gone from bad to worst replacing Jake Delhomme with the incomparable Seneca Wallace. Combine Senecca Wallace with that stingy Baltimore D and you have a recipe for disaster. 10 seems like a bit much but I think this is week Joe Flacco finally gets on track, or at least that’s what my fantasy team hopes. 

Ravens 20

Browns 6

Cincinnati @ Carolina

Cincinnati -3.5

What do you make of the Bengals? They get crushed in week one by the Pats only to slug it out and beat what seems like a very tough Baltimore team at home. Onething I do know, Carson Palmer has played terribly. He hasn’t looked good in any minute of a game that’s mattered yet, he put up those numbers in New England in garbage time. Palmer had 79 yards, 1 int, 1 sack, and one fumble until the game was 24-3 at which point the Pats eased off and he got some things going. Last week he put together a horrendous 16/35 for 167 yards. Yeah I guess having T.O. really isn’t helping him too much.  The Panthers on the other hand have lost by 2 touchdowns in back to back games and are starting a rookie quarterback in Jimmy Clausen. This seems like a battle of two teams we expected to better than they are. I think the Bengals have a bit more legitimacy to them.

Bengals 20

Panthers 13

Dallas @ Houston

Houston -3

Whats wrong with the NFL when this guy is a top 3 QB

This strikes me as one of the most interesting games of the week. This game to me seems like the game the Cowboys need to save their season. If they win they’re 1-2 heading into the bye week, they have time to regroup refocus and get going in very winnable division. However they lose this game and they’re 0-3 and more damning than anything probably just not a very good football team.  The cowboys haven’t generated a turnover in two games this season, combined with their inability to score touchdowns means they’re stagnating on offense and defense. You don’t want to be stagnant facing this Texans team, they’ve begun the season demonstrating mastery of both the running and the passing game and they plan to use both to tremendous effect against the cowboys. However if there’s something Houston can’t do its stop the pass. They have one of the league’s best pass rushers in Mario Williams who’s put up a sterling 4 sacks so far this season, but they’ve given up 411 yards passing per game. 411 yards!!!! That’s ridiculous, sure they’ve played Peyton Manning and Donovan Mcnabb, but Tony Romo is easily in Mcnabb’s class and he plans on putting up another 400 against them. However I still see Houston putting Dallas out of their misery in another tight game

Texans 34

Dallas 30

San Francisco @ Kansas City

San Francisco -1

These are two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions but aren’t that far apart. The 49’ers are 0-2 but they absolutely gave away that game Monday night after that debacle in Seattle. With that being said part of being a good team is making your breaks and knowing how to close people out.  The 49’ers clearly don’t know how to do that yet. They’re heading into a tough environment with new arrowhead stadium. which was rocking for the Chargers and should be just as raucous for their suddenly competitive chiefs’ team.  I think the Chiefs have put together back to back wins against a good Chargers team and bad Browns team on the road. They will keep themselves in games with their defense and special teams but outside of Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones their offense is nonexistent. If the 49’ers figured out their play calling conundrum last week and bring some of their offensive momentum into this game they get their first win.

49’ers 24

Chiefs 20

Detroit @ Minnesota

Minnesota -10

This is a must win for the Vikings and I think they finally get it but this line seems entirely too high for these teams. The Lions were a botched call away from a win in week 1 and an onside kick recovery from a scary proposition for the eagles in week 2. The Vikings on the either hand had two loses that weren’t as close as the final scores indicate. They need to put together some semblance of an effective passing game or people are going to keep making Adrian Peterson the most spectacular running back in the game who can only break 14 yard runs because they’re 8 guys in the box every snap. I think they limit Favre's turnovers to…..2? Just enough to beat a tough lion’s team that can’t seem to catch a break

Vikings 27

Lions 20

Buffalo @ New England

New England -14

The spread on this game is 14 for good reason. The Pats just put together a terrible performance against a team they absolutely hate in the jets. Tom Terrific was anything but and now they face a Bills team that just got obliterated by the Packers. These bills are looking for a spark in…….wait for it……wait for it………..Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yeah good luck with that, the Pats get back on track against probably the worst team in the NFL in resounding fashion

Pats 38

Bills 17

Atlanta @ New Orleans

New Orleans -4.5

The Saints will miss you...and your  haircut

I don’t think I’ll have an upset special of the week because it tends to force people into making picks they don’t really believe in. However if I had one this would be it. I think the Falcons will win this game here’s why. The Saints  just lost Reggie Bush who is much more important to their offense than he’s given credit for. Watch the tape on the 49’ers game and you’ll see two people on Reggie anytime he leaked out of the backfield 1.This opens up the offense for other people and 2.He still made plays while double teamed, the Saints will miss that. They just came from a gift of a game from the 49’ers. Sure the good teams make their own breaks and find a way to win, but good teams tend not to need 4 turnovers to beat an Alex Smith offense. So far they’ve face Brett Favre and Alex Smith two quarterbacks who aren’t making anybody nervous; at this point just the sheer competence and composure of Matty Ice will be enough combined with a tough Falcons D to get them an upset in Nawlins.

Falcons 24

New Orleans 20

Tennessee @ New York

New York -3.5

I really don’t know what to make of the Giants, they beat what looks like a bad Carolina team and get absolutely steam rolled by the Colts. I mean that seems like the formula for a bad team, but they just had a terrible game plan going into that game. They got behind and they started passing, and then they passed some more and played right into the Colts hands. However I don’t know if they’ll have a better game plan this week against the Titans. Tennessee on the other hand just got crushed by the Steelers defense but I think a lot of people will have a similar result this year. The stats say the Steelers bottled up Chris Johnson but there was a questionable holding call on an 80 yard touchdown run. That run counts and his numbers and the dynamic of that game are completely different, that game was close enough to where a touchdown could have changed its complexion. I think Vince Young has a bounce back game and C.J. puts up 125+.

Titans 23

Giants 20

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh -2.5

These teams are pretty far apart as far as 2-0 teams go. By the end of the year with Big Ben back in the fold and if this defense remains healthy these two teams will be in different leagues. However in week 3 there is no Big Ben and Tampa Bay is riding high on confidence in their young QB and their suddenly feisty defense. However the Steelers will show them that their defense isn’t feisty, or plucky, or any of those words we use to describe people that play past their talent level. The Steelers D plays up to its talent level and it’s an awfully high talent level.

Steelers 17

Bucs 9

Philadelphia @ Jacksonville

Philadelphia -3

The Michael Vick era in Philadelphia begins with a team that’s coming off an absolutely terrible effort in San Diego. The Jaguars are looking to get on the rebound against a Philadelphia team that just squeaked out a tough win against the Lions. The Eagles clearly can’t stop the passing attack and even more troubling can’t seem to stop backs catching the ball out of the backfield.  Javhid Best just went off on them to the tune of 9 catches 154 yards. You think Mo Jo looks at those numbers and thinks geez I’m better than Javhid Best I should kill these guys. Can everyone guess who I play against in fantasy football this week???? That’s right Mo Jo. Well I have a feeling he leads his fantasy team to victory against me but comes up short in real life

Eagles 31

Jaguars 20

Washington @ St. Louis

Washington -3.5

I don’t know why the line is this close, maybe my feelings on this are wrong but Washington is a pretty good team. They lost a tough one to a 2-0 Texans team and beat a bad Dallas team on a night when they couldn’t generate any offense. St. Louis seems like a classic Donovan Mcnabb throws a couple of beautiful deep balls against an overmatched team type of game. The Redskins defense will also get some of its confidence back against a rookie QB.

Skins 23

Rams 10

Oakland @ Arizona

Arizona -4.5

Eyebrows like this can lead men to victory

This game is probably the awful bowl of the week. Here’s a secret for you folks (anybody who knows me already knows this) I’m a Raiders fan. An absolute die hard one.  Sometimes it hurts to write negative things about the Raiders but I try to be honest as I can with a team I have very little objectivity about. I said last week they needed to wake up and maybe Bruce Gradkowski did just that with a second half flurry against the Rams. The only problem was they needed a second half flurry to beat the Rams. This would seem like a recipe for disaster if they weren’t facing a team that just got beat 41-7 last week.  I think Gradkowski and his massive brows grow their Oakland legend with another road win.

Raiders 27

Arizona 24

Indianapolis @ Denver

Indianapolis -5.5

Hmmm Colts vs. Broncos. I swear I’ve seen this game somewhere before. Oh yeah they beat them last year 28-16 and in 2007 they beat them 38-20 and they blew them out twice in the playoffs to the tune of 49-24 and 41-10. Those games are from the mid 2000’s but the point remains the same. The Colts absolutely own the Broncos there should be a big blue horse shoe up when they head into mile high on Sunday. I have a feeling their lease isn’t up yet, Peyton taught me last week not to bet against him because he can still do it at a high level. Well he does it this week.

Colts 31

Broncos 17

San Diego @ Seattle

San Diego -5.5

The Chargers got their act together last week against an overmatched Jaguars team and the Seahawks had their high hopes deflated at the hands of the Broncos. Well the Chargers are a bit sad they didn’t get to pop the balloon but they’re more than happy to let the rest of the air out of it. The Seahawks need to get back the energy they had in that week one match up against the 49’ers and they’re hoping that they’re home crowd will provide it for them. The problem is the Chargers aren’t the team to just give games away in the week one lost to the Chiefs they made it within a few yards of tying that game and sending into OT. They won’t need any close game theatrics this time. Phillip Rivers hooks up with Antonio Gates a few times, yells at his offensive line and the Chargers move to 2-1.

Chargers 27

USC Northwest 13

New York @ Miami

Miami -2.5

This plays out as the closet game of the week to me. You had the Jets getting all of their toughness back beating on the team that might hate them the most in the Patriots. While the Dolphins officially set us all into is Brett Favre is a zombie talk with their week 2 defensive performance. The pats played predominantly zone against Mark Sanchez and he used that to his advantage going 15/18 against the zone. However the Dolphins are the 6^th best pass defense in the league and they don’t play a lot of zone. You combine that with the Dolphins rushing attack meeting a Kris Jenkinless Jets Defense. The fins go 3-0

Dolphins 17

Jets 13

Green Bay @ Chicago

Green Bay -3

The best game of the week is on Monday night. We should all count ourselves lucky for that coming to pass. In the preseason this week 3 Monday night game seemed like an opportunity for the Packers to beat up on an overmatched NFC north rival now it’s a battle for the top of the division. The Bears have surprised mostly all of us with their play while we all expected the Packers to be good. One thing the Bears haven’t fixed is their offensive line, and that doesn’t bode well for them as they’re about to face human wrecking ball Clay Matthews. Aaron Rodgers V Jay Cutler is 2-0 For Rodgers so far with wins of 6 and 7 points. Count me on the Packers bandwagon because I think they make it 3-0 and I don’t think it’s within 7 points. Rodgers goes on the road and claims division supremacy in the early season.

Packers 27

Bears 17